Sunday, June 5, 2016

Rolex Daytona Ceramic Ref.116500LN supply status

Rolex is very good in marketing, as the basic rule to determine price is the relation of demand and supply.

We had experienced that with the GMT master II Blue black Ref.116710BLNR. In the first few months of launch, I even could buy at Rolex AD with 5% discount… The first one I bought for a Vietnam visitor back into 2014 July.

After two months, there we could not find any stock at Rolex AD, only from Gray Dealers!

I describe this phenomenon as “U” shapes supply cycle…

Initially Rolex will ship more in the first three months, such that more people can see this watch, there created more talks at Blog, fb, IG… provided that watch is beautiful and having a few nice feature. More and more people will try to buy… well, then we will fall into the flat or bottom minimum supply cycle, price will shoot up from gray dealer, of course we cannot get any watch at Rolex AD unless you are SVIP.

After two three years then there will be more supply as both the gray dealer price even may be  higher than you could buy in AD. As by that time, there will be new Rolex model launching in the market.

After two years the Batman was launched, Still we can hardly find any stock at AD… and with gray dealer, the price is still high between HK$63,000 to HK$65,000. (MSRP is HK$67,300)

How about this iconic Daytona, a Panda like Cosmograph with ceramic bezel, if you think Rolex will give each Rolex AD one watch a month!? That could be a dream, may be one watch in one Quarter!

As I expected that market price would be high as HKD$140,000 in my Blog post in April. it comes true today...

Now we can see the price is running between HK$138,000 to HKD$147,000!

This is the start of the “U” Cycle”, most of the Rolex AD can get one or two in a month… after a few months, we should expect less in supply or even zero… or they can ship all HK supply to other country likewise send say Singapore supply to HK one day…and keeps the Rolex Fans of HK and Singapore in Hunger!

Then the price could shoot go up more than HK$140,000!

Of course this is my guess, but if I were Rolex, I will do the same!

Note that the White one is even more difficult to get as  compare with older generation Ref.116520LN though price is same now for White or Black, in long terms I am sure White is more expensive that black!

So I think, if you can afford, but now, or you will not get it as easy as it is now!
For this model, I think the bottom line of the "U" cycle could last a long period of time! 

HK Snob
HK Watch Fever

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