Rolex is very good in marketing, as the basic rule to determine
price is the relation of demand and supply.
We had experienced that with the GMT master II Blue black
Ref.116710BLNR. In the first few months of launch, I even could buy at Rolex AD with 5% discount…
The first one I bought for a Vietnam visitor back into 2014 July.
After two months, there we could not find any stock at Rolex
AD, only from Gray Dealers!
I describe this phenomenon as “U” shapes supply cycle…
Initially Rolex will ship more in the first three months,
such that more people can see this watch, there created more talks at Blog, fb,
IG… provided that watch is beautiful and having a few nice feature. More and
more people will try to buy… well, then we will fall into the flat or bottom minimum
supply cycle, price will shoot up from gray dealer, of course we cannot get any
watch at Rolex AD unless you are SVIP.
After two three years then there will be more supply as both
the gray dealer price even may be higher
than you could buy in AD. As by that time, there will be new Rolex model launching
in the market.
After two years the Batman was launched, Still we can hardly
find any stock at AD… and with gray dealer, the price is still high between
HK$63,000 to HK$65,000. (MSRP is HK$67,300)
How about this iconic Daytona, a Panda like Cosmograph
with ceramic bezel, if you think Rolex will give each Rolex AD one watch a
month!? That could be a dream, may be one watch in one Quarter!
As I expected that market price would be high as HKD$140,000
in my Blog post in April. it comes true today...
Now we can see the price is running between HK$138,000 to
HKD$147,000!
This is the start of the “U” Cycle”, most of the Rolex AD
can get one or two in a month… after a few months, we should expect less in
supply or even zero… or they can ship all HK supply to other country likewise send
say Singapore supply to HK one day…and keeps the Rolex Fans of HK and Singapore in
Hunger!
Then the price could shoot go up more than HK$140,000!
Of course this is my guess, but if I were Rolex, I
will do the same!
Note that the White one is even more difficult to get as compare with older generation Ref.116520LN though price is same now for White or Black, in
long terms I am sure White is more expensive that black!
So I think, if you can afford, but now, or you will not get
it as easy as it is now!
For this model, I think the bottom line of the "U" cycle could last a long period of time!
HK Snob
HK Watch Fever
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