Watch bubble bursts?

 Until the day I am writing, watch price still does not stop dropping.

Always if the market is bad, people is scary to buy and the whole dealer or seller or grey dealer may go for panic sale. so this avalanche effect would further spoil the market.

Johnson is facing large scale strike in UK led by the trainer worker across the country, they have been facing the work inflation over the last 40 years, on the other side of the continent, Biden is scratching his head what should he do on one side putting sanction on Shinjiang Uyghur products into USA and other side knee down begging to meet Xi. On the other side USA is sending his Japanese little brother to join with  Korea with the new president to give trouble to the Eastern water, don't forget Korea and Japan is never a friend for the last 100 years. so internally there are Okinawa citizens coming up protect again Fumio Kishida. and South Korean are not happy with Yoon Suk-yeoi's new move. 

Watch price will not be affected by world political situation, to certain extend is less as prominent as stock markets and consumer's products because it is classified as luxury product which is by right the last resort of monetary asylum.

Both Eastern and Western countries are in great trouble, and Russia does not seem to stop the war now as one way to change the world, and China and Russia seems getting closer...

anyway this is purely mu opinion on the world current situation, back to the watches.

I see trade between dealer on these watches

Patek Aquanaut 5167A is $595,000

AP 15500ST Royal Oak auto 41 mm white dial is $370,000

Daytona white 16500 is now $270,000

Comparing with 2021, it has been dropped over 20% on PP, AP and Rolex as an average, vintage even worse no one watch to buy 1680, 1665, 16520 at the market price unless very special watches.

What s next? 

Watch out for next two months.

HK Snob

Unit here is HKD

Courtesy picture from Italian Watch Spotter

AP House visit with my Royal Oak Ref 5402BA

This is my second time re-visited AP house, I had another experience. As for this time I feel I was being properly treated. I was meeting with a supervisor who actually I knew her when she was with other watch brands 5 years ago. 

She could say this is a 5402 A series! Surprisingly this is a difference between a supervisor and other staff. knowing me that I like vintage watch, she gave me two heavy books for my reference. Then she mentioned that this watch may be handled by la brassus factory for complete service. I saw a decent  service there, immediate i put down my another 1997 Offshores for completed service.

She told ne the service charges of the 5402 is about HK$100,000. Well, regarding the sentimental value and economical value of this watch, I said OK. 

The issue is 6 months, I told her I have no concern on the delivery time just not to further polish that watch and don't change the dial as this is the soul of this watch...

Well, to be a successfully company, customer handling is key... I think this time AP is doing the right thing.

HK Snob

When watch price will go up again?

Many people questions when watch price will go up again.

This is a big topic which is also a challenge o many of the financial guy for watch trades.

I think the basic need for watch to regain its price momentum is, no more war, no more crazy inflation at like US nowadays. 

Also people will have good political stability in all major Western and Eastern countries.

If US is still treating his up coming second strong country as an emerging target of conflict then this watch price will never go up again!

Uncle Sam should sit down talking to Chinese on how to create a better community of shared future of the mankind, instead of using sanction or military threat to stop other country's development and growth... stupid.

Anyway this is watch log not political forum. 

HK Snob

HK Watch Fever's Carousell site

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Thank you for your support.

HK Snob

Rolex Price keeps dropping

Rolex Daytona white 116500LN was selling at $460,000 beginning of the year, today they are worth about $280,000. 

Hulk Ref 116610LV NOS was $280,000 and now it is about $200,000.

Hulk used one with Ref 116610LV is now $140,000 which is 30% lower than January 2022.

What is Patek and AP price, well, they are also affected too.

Many people ask me when the price will be up again?

I think it depends when the Russia-Ukraine war will come to an end.

And COVID is being not an issues in Asia, the economy will be pushed up and people will be having their money released for spending.

take for an example, Hong Kong, it is the place we are looking for cancelling the 7 days quarantine after coming back Hong Kong. then the whole Asian economy will be boosted like a Viagra to an horny old man.

I am expecting by end July the Russia Ukraine war shall come to a peace, I pray.

HK Snob

A visit to AP house with my Royal Oak 5402ba Jumbo

 After I made an appointment to AP house, I went with this Royal Oak 5402ba to see a young lady there at 5pm on 29 May 2022.  I was intended to overhaul the movement and change a new gasket only. She told me the watch is old and she had to find out their record, she had never seen this watch in he life. Well, I told her this is 5402, the first Royal Oak that changed the destiny of the Audemars Piguet against the Quartz crisis. She went to other area likely talking to some other staff three times, after 30 minutes and told me there there may have no spare parts for this old watch, And they need 6 months to do the job as AP is busy. Well, I told her what parts? She said spare part! I told her Audemars Piguet is supposed the No. 3 high end watch house in Switzerland after Patek Philippe and Vacheron Constantin... How come no spare?
Patek Philippe's CEO Thierry Stern had once mentioned that whatever Patek Philippe watch even back to 19 Century they still can provide spare part for it. I don't  blame her as she may be too new in her job, she is young about 28 wearing an AP white gold Perpetual Calendar watch worth HK$600,000 as she told me during the chatting. She asked me if I want to change a new dial, (how come she know that AP does still have the dial?) I said No, I need to keep the original dial. She asked if I need to polish the case and bracelet, I told her no, I wanted to keep the original condition of the watch. Preferably no polishing. 

She said, that watch can not be polished anymore as it is too thin already! (I told myself really too thin to polish? How much do you need to polish? 0.005mm? 0.02mm? 0.2mm?

OK after I saw the document , the description was NXX  (XX is my watch S/N, it should read No XX on the back of my watch. on the Watch Description; it was written "39mm gold watch with bracelet. I told her should be "Royal Oak 5402 39mm with bracelet... : it too late as it was 5;55, 5 minutes before they closed. So I told her well, I would like to take it back and make another appointment for visit again.

That was a wonder experience, i feel a bit hesitate to send the watch to AP House to overhaul. But After all who can do it for me? Private watch smith I guess. But I do like to send it to AP Switzerland for best attention on it.

Aftermath

I remembered I was invited to join a new watch fair at Audemars Piguet IFC back in 2018, And I saw a 5402 Royal Oak in yellow gold was housed inside a window box for display. I talked to one of the VPs from Switzerland who told be me still have three NOS (new old stock) JLC 2121 movement under his own possession. This is the movement being used inside the 5402. The 2121 movement is very reliable and one of the best movements in the 70s. Later in 1976, Patek Philippe also took the same movement to be housed in their legendary watch "The Nautilus 3700". I don't know what spare they don't have again,. this puzzled me until now...

Anyway I shall have another appointment in AP House again soon... let's see if that could be another wonder experience for me.

HK Snob