Which Rolex model we should consider purchasing 2024?

Introduction I was wondering which Rolex model we should consider purchasing, as many of my friends and followers on my watch blog have inquired about this. 

Rolex CEO Jean-Frédéric Dufour recently spoke with the Swiss newspaper NZZ ahead of the Watches and Wonders industry trade show in Geneva, which he co-founded and serves as president. When asked about the current state of the industry, Dufour acknowledged that 2024 would be a "challenging" year for watch manufacturers.

Dufour cited several factors contributing to this challenge, including increased material prices, such as the cost of gold. "Rolex produces everything here at Swiss costs. The Swiss franc is a challenge," he noted. "The cost of raw materials has also risen massively. A kilo of gold was 18,000 francs, now it is 66,000 francs in Switzerland. " Dufour also mentioned that rising interest rates and the geopolitical situation are affecting consumer sentiment and spending. He emphasized, "I don't like it when people compare watches to stocks. It sends the wrong message and is dangerous. We make products, not investments." 

Bob's Recommendation, coincidentally, a recent article from Bob's Watches, a reputable source with over two decades of experience in the luxury watch industry, covered this topic. The Bob's Watches Editorial Team stands at the forefront of watch expertise and insight. As they are not based in Hong Kong, their perspective on the best models for the local market could be particularly interesting.

Submariner Models to Invest in: 

Ref. 116610LN, Ref. 16610, Ref. 14060, and Ref. 16613 are suggested as potential investment pieces. The newer models starting with Ref 12XXXX are 1mm larger, and the Ref. 16610, with its T25 dial, may offer better value and the potential for a more beautiful patina compared to the Ref. 116610. The Ref. 14060 no-date model is also a consideration, though the Ref. 16613 two-tone Submariner may be less popular in Hong Kong, as steel tool watches are currently more sought after by influential individuals. 

Oyster Perpetual Models to Invest in: 

Ref. 124300, Tiffany Blue and Green models are considered good collectibles, but their current prices, often exceeding HK$130,000, are quite high. However, the 39mm Oyster Perpetual models are expected to hold their value well in the future due to their limited production. 

Explorer Models to Invest in: 

While Bob's Watches recommends Ref. 14270, Ref. 214270, Ref. 16570, and Ref. 216570, I have a slightly different perspective. I believe the Ref. 16550 "Cream Rail" dial Explorer II and the Ref. 16570 white dial are noteworthy options, as the Ref.16550 can be quite expensive at around HK$240,000 for a well-preserved example, while the Ref. 16570 remains more affordable. 

GMT-Master Models to Invest in: 

I agree with Bob's assessment that the vintage Ref. 16750 GMT-Master offers a similar look and feel to the more expensive Ref. 1675, often at a significantly lower price point. Additionally, the Ref. 16760 "COKE" with its black and red bezel, also known as the "Fat Lady," may be worth monitoring, as its limited production run of just a few years could make it a desirable option if Rolex reintroduces a retro model in 2024. 

Date Just Models to Invest in: 

While the Date Just is an iconic Rolex model, particularly popular in the 70s to 90s, I personally favor the Ref. 1601 with its pie-pan dial and acrylic crystal over the later Ref. 16013, Ref. 16233, and Ref. 116233 models. 

Day-Date President Models to Invest in: 

 The Rolex Day-Date, often referred to as the "President's Watch," is the brand's flagship line and a highly sought-after model. Gold Rolex watches have recently gained relative value on the secondary market, and the Ref. 1803 is a top choice, particularly those with unique dial variations, such as the "Stellar" dial or precious stone accents. An example of a Ref. 1803 in white gold with a "Tiffany Blue" Stellar dial could potentially fetch around HK$500,000 on the market. 

Recommended Rolex Models to Invest In: 

Date Models: Ref. 1503 Ref. 1507 Ref. 15037 Ref. 15238 I don't have a strong interest in Rolex Date models. 

Sea-Dweller Models: 

Ref. 1665, especially the rare "Double Red" variant, which is considered the best Sea-Dweller model, though now very expensive Ref. 16660 Ref. 16600 Ref. 116600 

Air-King Models: 

Ref. 5500 Ref. 14010 Ref. 114200 Ref. 114234 I don't collect Air-King watches as it is the most basic Rolex sport model. 

Ladies Rolex Models: 

Ref. 69173 Ref. 69138 Ref. 169622 I don't collect ladies' Rolex watches. 

The Most Important Rolex Model: 

The Daytona My Preferred Daytona Models: 

Ref. 116508 "Green John Mayer" in yellow gold, which I believe is one of the best investment pieces, having risen to over HK$1 million in 2022 and currently available around HK$600,000, a price I expect will increase rapidly 

Ref. 16528 (with either black or white dial) powered by the Zenith movement 

Ref. 16520 "A" or "U" series with a patinated dial 

 Ref.116520 with a creamy dial (found only on "P, K, Y" series models) 

While the iconic Paul Newman Daytona (Ref. 6241) is the "King of Daytonas", it is more of a collector's item than a daily wearer. 

The models I've recommended here all feature sapphire crystals and can be comfortably worn every day. 

You may ask how about Ice Blue Platinum, well if you have extra money and you don't mind the 286 gram of weight. Go for it. 

In summary, my Rolex preference ranking is: 

Daytona, Day-Date GMT Submariner Deep Sea Sea-Dweller Explorer Date-Just Oyster Perpetual, 1908/Cellini Yacht-Master Sky-Dweller Air-King Date Ladies' Date-Just 

 HK Snob

When Watch price will start rising up again?

Certainly, let me dive deeper into the potential future dynamics of the watch industry and market: The luxury watch sector faces a complex challenge in reconciling strong macroeconomic indicators with the public's more pessimistic sentiment toward the economy. This disconnect could significantly impact consumer spending, especially on high-end discretionary items like luxury watches. One key factor to watch will be how brands adapt their strategies to this shift in market conditions. Swiss watchmakers may need to reevaluate their retail network, potentially closing some underperforming boutiques and relying more on direct engagement with loyal customers. Selective discounting or promotional offers could also help broaden their customer base beyond the most affluent collectors. The middle-class watch buyers, who make up a significant portion of the market, may become increasingly cautious in their purchasing decisions. They may adopt a wait-and-see approach, holding off on purchases until they perceive prices starting to rise again. Brands will need to carefully monitor this segment and find ways to reignite their interest without devaluing their products. The role of supply and demand will be crucial in determining the timing and trajectory of the market's recovery. If brands can strike the right balance - not overproducing, but making sought-after models readily available - they may be able to rekindle consumer enthusiasm. However, attempts at a "hunger sales" strategy could backfire if handled poorly. Beyond the global dynamics, the specific challenges facing the Hong Kong market are noteworthy. As a former top destination for Swiss watch exports, Hong Kong has seen a significant decline in luxury buyers, particularly mainland Chinese tourists. This has led to store closures in prime shopping areas, further exacerbating the industry's challenges in the region. The South Africa Rolex office had been running for 76 years are closed. Ultimately, the watch industry's path to regaining momentum by Summer 2025 will depend on its ability to navigate these complex and interrelated factors. Brands that can effectively adapt their strategies, engage with customers, and manage supply and demand may be better positioned to weather the current storm and emerge stronger in the years to come. HK Snob

讓我進一步探討手錶行業未來的動態與挑戰

一個關鍵因素是品牌如何調整策略以適應這種市場環境的轉變。瑞士手錶製造商可能需要重新評估他們的零售網絡,關閉一些表現不佳的精品店,勞力士剛剛關閉運作了七十六年南非辨工室了，而需要更多依賴與忠實客戶的直接互動。選擇性的折扣或促銷優惠也可能有助於擴大他們的客戶群,而不僅局限於最富裕的收藏家。 中低端手錶買家群體,佔據市場的重要份額,可能會在購買決策上變得更加謹慎。他們可能會採取觀望態度,等待價格開始再次上升後再進行購買。品牌需要密切關注這一細分市場,設法重新點燃他們的興趣,同時不會貶低產品價值。 供給與需求的平衡在決定市場復蘇的時間和軌跡上至關重要。如果品牌能夠掌握好這一平衡 - 既不過度生產,又能確保熱門型號充足供應 - 他們或許能重燃消費者的熱情。然而,如果採取"餓賣"策略處理不當,也可能適得其反。 除了全球動態,香港市場面臨的特殊挑戰也值得關注。作為連續十年瑞士手錶最重要的出口目的地之一,香港已經看到奢侈品買家,特別是來自中國大陸的遊客,大幅減少。這導致了主要購物區的商店關閉,進一步加劇了該行業在該地區的困難。 總的來說,手錶行業到2025年夏季重拾動力的道路,將取決於其調整策略、吸引客戶以及管控供需平衡的能力。那些能夠有效應對這些複雜而相互關聯因素的品牌,可能會更好地渡過當前的風暴,並在未來幾年中強勢崛起.

The 2024 Swiss Watch Market: An Analysis of Trends and Strategies

Introduction:

Against the backdrop of the esteemed Watches and Wonders 2024 event, concerns arise regarding the decline in Swiss watch exports in March. The value of exports fell by 16.1% compared to March 2023, amounting to a total of 2.0 billion francs. This decline was primarily driven by reduced demand from China and Hong Kong, major trading hubs for watches in Asia. Overall, the first quarter experienced a 6.3% decrease compared to the previous year. 

Sales Performance by Price Segments: 

The decline in exports was observed across all price segments. Watches priced at over 3,000 francs experienced a decline of 9.9%. The drop was more significant for products priced under 500 francs, with a decrease of 18.8%. The 500-3,000 francs category witnessed a decline of 38.2%. 

Market Performance by Region: 

Most markets experienced weakened demand in March. Notably, the United States (-6.5%), Japan (-3.5%), and the United Arab Emirates (-3.6%) were less affected compared to the average decline. Conversely, China suffered a significant decline of 41.5%, reaching a level below that of March 2020 when the industry faced a halt due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Hong Kong (-44.2%), Singapore (-14.8%), the United Kingdom (-13.2%), Germany (-13.1%), and France (-11.9%) were closer to the global average. 

Historical Perspective: Swiss Watchmaking Over the Past 50 Years:

The Swiss watchmaking industry has undergone significant transformations over the past five decades. One pivotal event was the Quartz watch crisis of 1970. Exports reached their peak in 1974 at 84.4 million watches and movements but plummeted to just 31.3 million within a decade. This crisis led to a divergence in the industry, with the emergence of everyday watches like Swatch and the luxury segment.

Brand Identity and Market Share:

Swiss watches are categorized into super luxury, luxury, hi-end, and mid-range streams. Brand identity plays a crucial role in building brand value. Top players such as Richard Mille, with watches worth CHF 200,000, manufacture only a few thousand pieces annually. In contrast, Swatch produces millions of watches each year. As of 2023, Rolex dominates the market with a 30.3% market share, followed by Cartier 7.5%, Omega 7.5%, Patek Philippe 5.6%, and Audemars Piguet, among others.

Market Growth and Strategies:

The Swiss watch market has experienced both growth and contraction simultaneously. While volumes have decreased by almost 45% since 2015, the value of high-end watches priced over CHF 3,000 has surged by 15.6% in the past year. This trend signifies a shift towards higher-priced luxury timepieces. The industry's focus on producing fewer watches at higher prices reflects a protectionist approach aimed at boosting demand.

 Future Outlook:

The market's trajectory for the next decade will be shaped by distinct strategies related to brand identity, average selling price (ASP), value proposition, and sales approaches. While hunger sales may be utilized to stimulate demand, it is crucial to note that watches are not considered investment assets. The luxury watch industry is adapting to the digital age, with younger generations showing greater interest in wearable technology rather than traditional mechanical timepieces. However, the market remains strong, with major players reporting impressive growth.

 Conclusion:

In conclusion, the Swiss watch market is undergoing dynamic changes. The industry has transitioned towards producing fewer watches of higher value, focusing on rarity, exclusivity, and storytelling. Younger consumers are gravitating towards digital wearables, while the 30-50 age group still appreciates Swiss mechanical watches as indicators of social status. Vintage watch enthusiasts continue to cherish the craftsmanship of fine mechanical timepieces. It is essential for watch enthusiasts to buy and enjoy timepieces they personally appreciate, while recognizing the unique stories and value associated with rare and special watches.

HK Snob

Watch Business update in Hong Kong

Watch Business Update - May 2024 

In recent times, the gold price has reached a historical high, standing at HK$26,500 per tael. During my visit to Chow Tai Fok yesterday to purchase gifts for Mother's Day, I was struck by the soaring price of gold. Such high gold prices indicate a lack of trust in traditional currencies, leading individuals to invest in precious metals, with gold being the top choice. 

The ongoing conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine show no signs of resolution. Consequently, we anticipate that people will exercise caution when it comes to investing in luxury goods. Despite the fact that the wealthiest 1% of US citizens possess 30% of the country's wealth, it is uncertain whether this group will entirely divert their funds towards the watch business. Middle-class individuals, including managers, executives, investment bankers, IT professionals, businessmen, hotel managers, pilots, lawyers, and more, comprise the genuine supporters of the watch industry. Although not part of the super-rich class, Hong Kong residents are increasingly crossing the border to Shenzhen for weekend getaways, indicating a decrease in their willingness to invest as heavily as they did two years ago.

Comparing the current prices to those of May 2022, Rolex has experienced an average drop of 30%, Patek Philippe has dropped by 25% on average, and Audemars Piguet has experienced a 40% decrease. Vacheron Constantin is now offering its VIP customers the opportunity to purchase the new 222 model at the manufacturer's suggested retail price (MSRP), which was not possible in 2023. However, there have been few actual transactions for used Rolex watches among the 500 dealers in Hong Kong. It remains unclear whether prices have reached their lowest point, but it is expected that they will fluctuate in a U-shaped pattern before potentially rising again, particularly towards the end of the year following the replacement of US President Biden with Trump. 

Considering the current market conditions, it is advisable to invest in gold watches rather than stainless steel models, as the former holds greater value. Personally, I have ceased purchasing steel watches and shifted my focus towards high-quality gold timepieces. 

It is worth noting that the attached picture depicts TST 1881, where luxury shops such as JLC, Roger Dubuis, IWC, Cartier, Vacheron Constantin, and Panerai were present two years ago. However, at present, these establishments remain closed.

Thank you for reading. 

HK Snob

Rolex new watches highlight 2024

 Rolex 2024

I can’t rule out the affection of Rolex fans as Rolex takes up 50% of Swiss watch export revenues in 2023. Rolex’s new watch will be the focus of many of us.

Rolex has added a new stainless steel GMT-Master II to the lineup. Featuring the same split-color black and gray bezel, the new Rolex GMT-Master II 126710GRNR pairs its updated bezel with the green GMT hand and green dial text as the black and green left-handed GMT-Master II that debuted in 2022. Just like the rest of the models from the current GMT-Master II lineup, this new GMT-Master II 126710GRNR is powered by the Caliber 3285 automatic GMT movement, which features the brand’s Chronergy escapement and runs at a frequency of 28,800vph (4 Hz) with a power reserve of approximately 70 hours. Additionally, just like the other stainless steel models, this new GMT-Master II 126710GRNR is available with either the brand’s three-link Oyster or five-link Jubilee bracelets, and both versions are completed by Rolex’s Oysterlock clasp with the brand’s Easylink comfort extension system.

Rolex Deepsea in 18KT Yellow gold

Quite to my unexpected, for 2024, Rolex introduced a solid gold dive watch rated to 3900m. And never mind that you can wear a watch that deep into the deep sea with ease — this watch is about status, pure and simple. The new Rolex Deepsea 136668LB is big and stupid.

A 322g, solid 18k Deepsea on a solid 18k gold bracelet is contradictory to much of what we’ve seen from Rolex in the past. It is a 44m-wide, 17.7mm-thick gold watch.   And the bright blue ceramic Cerachrom bezel shines and matches as on the gold case. Put the gold and blue together with the weight and all you can think of this is a showy piece but not for you to wear everyday. May not be comfortable for me to wear. May be someone’s else.

Rolex Perpetual 1908 in Platinum “Ice Blue”

This is top-of-the-line Rolex dress watch, and I think many people like this watch more than the about GMT and Deepsea. Rolex has followed up with the Perpetual 1908 in platinum (ref. 52506) with an “ice blue” guilloché dial. It is done the traditional way with a hand-operated machine, the guilloché dial gives the watch an entirely different character. The striking pale blue is also more modern.

It is 39 mm wide and 9.5 mm, it is clean, well made, thin, appealing bright hue of the Ice Blue dial with a balance of denser weight of Platinum case, In its original form, the 1908 had excellent proportions for a modern-day dress watch in right proportion with size and thickness, overall is first grade Rolex watch.  At for US$31,000, a reasonable premium that is less than many brands levy for the metal. Just my personal comment, a brawn Croco strap isn't the best colour match for such a modern Rolex?

How do you like it? And I believe this is easier to get than the GMT Master II.

HK Snob