Luxury watch trend in next 5 years 2024-2028

 We all know it's difficult to predict with certainty what the exact trends in the high-end luxury watch market will be over the next five to ten years, as consumer preferences can be influenced by a variety of factors such as fashion, technology, celebrities’ preference, watch maker influence, and cultural shifts. However, based on current trends and market indicators, there are a few predictions that can be made.

One trend that may continue to gain popularity is the customization of luxury watches. Some high-end watch brands offer customers the ability to customize their watches with different materials, colors, and finishes, and this trend may continue to expand over the next few years. Typical example is Rolex Day Date “puzzle” at W & W premiere 2023 that will be having MSRP $0.5M, I can say the market price will be not less than $1.5m.

In terms of price trends, it's difficult to predict with certainty how prices will change over the next five years. However, based on historical trends, it's likely that prices for high-end luxury watches will continue to rise over time. Remember the price of watch was low in 2011 and starting 2012 price started to move up till 2022, that is ten years cycle, I strongly believe by end of 2023 watch price will start to move up. Now we all know Rolex price is moving at its lowest range after the highest price record in 2021, at that time a Daytona White ceramic 116500 was about $450,000. Now it is about $290,000.  A Submariner 116610LN New was selling $120,000 in Nov 2021, now probably we can get one two years watch NOS at $95000, that is a 24% price drop.

Athletes, movie stars, and singers can have a significant influence on watch trends, as they often serve as brand ambassadors or are seen wearing certain watches in public. Based on current trends and market indicators, there are a few indications of which watch brands and styles may be popular among these influencers in 2023. Brad Pitt worn a Vacheron Constantin “222”, a 37mm solid yellow gold watch in 2022.

One indication is the continued popularity of sport watches among athletes and other active individuals. This may include watches with fitness tracking capabilities, durable materials, and other features that cater to an active lifestyle.

Another indication is the growing interest in vintage and retro-inspired watches. Many high-end watch brands are releasing new models that pay homage to classic designs from the past, the 2023 retro of ingenieur of IWC,  Vacheron Constantin 222 in yellow gold. and these watches may appeal to movie stars and other celebrities who value timeless style and sophistication.

In terms of watch brands, Rolex, Patek Philippe, and Audemars Piguet are all popular among athletes, movie stars, and singers, and may continue to be in 2023. Other brands that may gain popularity among these influencers include Hublot, Richard Mille, and Omega.

Ultimately, the influence of athletes, movie stars, and singers on watch trends can be difficult to predict, as their preferences can be influenced by a variety of factors such as personal style, brand partnerships, and cultural trends. However, by staying attuned to the brands and styles favored by these influencers, watch enthusiasts can gain insight into the broader trends shaping the high-end watch market.

I always think that there have been a lot of gatherings in Switzerland from the big watch makers to lay down some road map on what should they do in creating new watches in the coming years.

John Mayer’s gold watch such as Rolex Submariner in gold, Daytona green dial 116508, Daytona Paul Ip 6263. Meaning certain Daytona would be a good watch to be worn by the singers. It is a good value keeper as a watch. Week End debuted to uneven reviews at Cannes yesterday, where the singer continued one of the most sensible horological trends of 2023. Size has been changed from 40-42 reduction to 36-39mm since 2018 until now. Even some men wearing Cartier Crash which I presume that is a smaller watch. More thin that how lady watch. Yes, The Week End’s stunning gem-set Piaget, the Limelight Gala High Jewelry Watch, was technically designed for—and marketed to—women. “More than a women's luxury watch…” reads a bit of copy on Piaget’s site. Can you recall that there is a lot of persons were wearing lady watch back in 1985? What is next?

Conclusion

Watch price will become stable and start to rise by end of 2023

Watch size continue to be smaller in diameter 36-39mm

Gold as a watch material is getting popular

More peoples will go for dress watch of course the ratio will not be as high as comparing with steel sport watch.

Lady watch as a new trend yet to be a norm as in 1986 for male celebrity, need to be observed more.

HK Snob

Price here in HKD,  1 USD$ = 7,8 HKD

Preowned or new Rolex

 Well, my first watch I bought using my money was a Rolex Date Just, I sold it with some earning one year later to the second engineer who bought it for his wife... That was my few watches I bought as brand new.

I bought it in a Rolex AD in Jordan road, Price as $5,025, back in 1981. at That time my monthly salary was $4,004. 

Since then I had bought as many may be 100 Rolex but so far may be less than 4 pieces are brand new.

Because I think it's more value I got from buying preowned watch.

Well, many of known buyers that I know, they have very high resistance buying used watch.

Commonly the have an idea, why I have to use someone watch that had been worn before?

Well, I presume that you should not buy any used cars that had been driven by someone or pre-owned home that had been lived by other people? Or you should not go to restaurant that the eating utensils had been used by others?

From the Hygenic point of view, I think used watch if bought from someone, we should change the old strap, and I used to keep the original strap as some buyer wants it. for the watch, we can use some alcohol to clean it, for the bracelet, we can use detergent to wash and clean, that should be OK.

Well, if you are a vintage watch collector like I, I don't mind that watch had been used by someone before.

And the only way I can get vintage watch is buying from the used watch market, unless you can get a NOS vintage, that could be very expensive!

Buying new watch could be good of course if I were financially strong, but under certain budget, I can't  buy new watches. And once you bought new watch, and using it for certain period of time, its classified as pre-owned watch already. a brand new Daytona 116500 white is now $280,000, but if you use it for two months with some hairline scratches, the price is $240,000, (10 percents of the watch value is gone, or may be higher if there is nothing scratches could be found. 

So I always preferred buying pre-owned Rolex, because of the value.

HK Snob

Remarks unit here is HKD

Why 80% of people know only Rolex but not those prestiage watches

There are a few reasons why Rolex is often more popular and well-known among the general public compared to other high-end watch brands like Audemars Piguet (AP), Vacheron Constantin (VC), or Patek Philippe. One reason is that Rolex has invested heavily in marketing and brand recognition, making it a household name. Rolex has also been around for over a century and has a strong reputation for producing high-quality, reliable watches that can withstand extreme conditions. Additionally, Rolex has a wide range of styles and price points, making it accessible to a broader audience. 

On the other hand, brands like AP, VC, and Patek Philippe are often more exclusive and cater to a niche market of collectors and enthusiasts. These brands may also have a more limited production, making their watches harder to find and more expensive. While these brands may be more prestigious and have a higher level of craftsmanship, they may not have the same level of brand recognition as Rolex. Ultimately, personal preferences and individual tastes play a significant role in which brand someone may prefer. 

HK Snob

Why the luxury bag business may be doing better than watches in Hong Kong?

                             Canton Road Luxury boutique Louie Vuitton and Cartier

Recently we can see more line up for luxury bags at Canton Road, a traditional shopping hub for bags such as Louie Vuitton, Chanel, Hermes, Gucci…etc

In my analysis, Bags are more fashion-focused, and fashion trends tend to change more rapidly than watch styles say 2-5 years. This fast-changing cycle of new styles and designs brings customers back to buy the latest bags, even those who already own quite a few. Watches are more lasting pieces say 5-10 years, so customers don't need to update them as frequently. This faster fashion cycle likely boosts bag sales.

Women are the primary target for luxury bags, while watches appeal more to both men and women; more precisely 90% men and 10% women. The higher proportion of female consumers and the importance of bags as a fashion accessory for women could drive more demand and sales. Women may buy more bags to match different outfits and occasions, while a single watch may suffice. Don't underestimate the target being spotted on bag is much larger than the tiny lady watch in her wrist!

Mainland Chinese tourists account for a large portion of luxury sales in Hong Kong. Bags are a very popular item for these tourists to buy in Hong Kong due to perceptions of better selections and prices. As a highly visible fashion item, luxury bags also communicate status and wealth, status of celebrity, confidence of a success which is appealing in the culture. Watches are not quite as high on the shopping lists of these tourists and are not as conspicuous a signal of affluence. So the preferences of this tourist market likely also boost luxury bag sales over watches.

In general, while both watches and bags are popular luxury goods, bags may be more susceptible to changes in fashion trends and more targeted at female consumers. In a market like Hong Kong that attracts a lot of female mainland tourists, this could lead to stronger growth and sales for luxury bags compared to watches. Of course, there is no guarantee this trend will always continue, but it seems a reasonable possibility based on the factors involved.

One thing noted, 90% of the bag purchased are paid by her boy friends of close relation-male, and most ladies enjoy the time their credit card or supplementary credit cards to be printed at those luxury bag boutiques!!

Enjoy the bags, we enjoy the sales!

HK Snob

 

A list of top vintage watches for investment from Patek Philippe, Audemars Piguet, Vacheron Constantin and Rolex

 • Rolex Submariner - The Rolex Submariner is one of the most iconic luxury watches and has historically held its value very well. Submariners made of precious metals like gold or platinum with diamonds or gemstones tend to increase the most in value. Newer models released in 2021 should hold their value and potentially increase over time.

 

• Patek Philippe Nautilus - The Patek Philippe Nautilus is another very collectible luxury watch that holds its value extremely well. Virtually any reference of the Nautilus, especially in steel, has the potential to increase a lot in value over the years. New references released in 2021 will likely be in high demand and hold up as a great investment piece.

 

• Audemars Piguet Royal Oak - The Audemars Piguet Royal Oak is a iconic luxury sports watch that has seen values rise steadily over the years. Stainless steel and solid gold models tend to hold value the best. Limited edition or special anniversary models released in 2021 would be compelling investment options, especially if you can get them at retail price.

 

• Limited edition or special watches - In general, limited edition or special, rare watches from leading luxury brands have the potential to be great investments. This could be a limited edition watch from brands like Patek Philippe, Audemars Piguet or Richard Mille, or a unique watch with precious materials or complications. As long as the watch is in demand and in limited supply, it has potential to gain value.

 

• Vintage watches - Vintage watches from certain brands have seen huge increases in value over the years. In particular, vintage Rolex sport models and Patek Philippe chronographs have been coveted by collectors. If you can find a rare, coveted vintage reference in good original condition, it could prove to be an impressive investment over the long run. However, you do have to be very careful with vintage watches and authenticity.

HK Snob

Top 20 Vintage watches for investment

 1. Patek Philippe 1518 Perpetual Calendar Chronograph

2. Patek Philippe 2499 Perpetual Calendar Chronograph

3. Patek Philippe 3970 Perpetual Calendar Chronograph

4. Audemars Piguet Royal Oak 5402ST or 5402BA Jumbo

5. Rolex Paul Newman Daytona 6263, 6265

6. Rolex Submariner 1680 single Red

7. Rolex GMT-Master 1675, 16760 fat lady

8. Vacheron Constantin Chronograph Ref. 4240

9. Vacheron Constantin Ref. 4072, Overseas 42042 creamy white, Salmon and blue.

10. Rolex Daytona 16520

11. Patek Philippe 1526 Perpetual Calendar

12. Patek Philippe 3940 Perpetual Calendar

13. Audemars Piguet Jules Audemars Moonphase

14. Rolex Ref. 6036 "Jean-Claude Killy" triple calendar

15. Patek Philippe Ref. 2497 perpetual calendar chronograph

16. Patek Philippe Ref. 1591 perpetual calendar chronograph

17. Vacheron Constantin Astronomical Grand Complication No. 4 261

18. Rolex Ref. 6062 "Star Dial" triple date moon phase

19. Patek Philippe Ref. 1563 chronograph

20. Audemars Piguet Ref. 5402ST Royal Oak "A Series"

 This is based on factors like rarity, condition, and how coveted certain references are among vintage watch collectors and investors. Prices for mint condition examples of these watches could be very high, often in the hundreds of thousands or even millions of dollars.

ChatGPT/HK Snob

is Rolex price at its bottom now?

 It's difficult to say definitively whether Rolex watch prices are at the bottom right now. Some factors that could indicate prices are near a bottom: 

• Rolex prices have declined for certain models over the past year due to lower demand during the pandemic and other issues. If the economy starts to recover and demand for luxury watches rebounds, it could put a floor under Rolex prices and potentially lead to some price increases again. 

• The secondary market for used Rolex watches has also seen some price drops. If prices for used Rolexes stabilize or start to increase again, it could signal that new Rolex prices may have hit a bottom. Usually the primary and secondary markets influence each other.  

However, there is still a lot of uncertainty in the market and the economy. If economic issues continue or worsen again, it's possible Rolex prices could face more pressure. And Rolex is known for tightly controlling supply, so if they don't release more supply, it could keep new Rolex watches in demand and prop up prices.  

So while current lower Rolex prices could indicate we're near the bottom, there is no guarantee. The market dynamics around demand, the economy, and Rolex's supply are complex. If you're looking at buying a Rolex, it may depend on your objectives - if you want to get a good price, now could be an opportunity, but if prices could drop more, it may be worth waiting to see how things play out in the months ahead.

Recently I have noticed the trade is getting more , from these inputs

fb, Carousell, IG sales are more active especially after March 1.

Rolex Daytona Ceramic white 116500N was HK$240,000 in Feb, and now HK$260,000

So that is a good sign as Daytona is an index for Rolex price!

20 best looking watches

 1. Patek Philippe Nautilus (1976) - Iconic luxury sports watch designed by Gerald Genta. Features graceful rounded octagonal case and bracelet. 

2. Audemars Piguet Royal Oak (1972) - Another legendary luxury sports watch designed by Gerald Genta, with distinctive octagonal case and exposed screws on bezel. 

3. Jaeger-LeCoultre Reverso (1931) - Iconic reversible watch that can flip its case. Timeless Art Deco-inspired design with elegant simplicity. 

4. A. Lange & Söhne Saxonia (1994) - Prestigious dress watch showcasing German watchmaking prowess. Epitome of luxury and precision with intricate finishes. 

5. Vacheron Constantin Patrimony (2004) - High-end minimalist dress watch revealing Vacheron's commitment to restrained sophistication and fine craftsmanship. and alos its Overseas esp. genration 1 42042.

6. Rolex Daytona (1963) - Iconic chronograph synonymous with prestige and performance. The Daytona has passed into watchmaking legend. 

7. Breguet Classique (1987) - Contemporary dress watch imbued with traditional Breguet flourishes like a guilloche dial and blue pomme hands. Epitomizes Breguet's dedication to fine craft. 

8. Hublot Big Bang (2005) - Bold modern sports watch that blends materials like ceramic, titanium and carbon fiber. Controversial futuristic design that shows Hublot's maverick approach. 

9. Patek Philippe Calatrava (1932) - Archetypal Patek dress watch combining timeless elegance and precision. Represents Patek Philippe's peerless quality and restrained style. 

10. Blancpain Fifty Fathoms (1953) - Early modern dive watch created for French navy. Blancpain's robust yet stylish tool watch set a high bar for dive watches. 

11. Grand Seiko Spring Drive (1999) - Showcases Grand Seiko's mastery of precision engineering with a smooth sweeping seconds hand and titanium case. Combines Seiko's technical expertise with a refined aesthetic. 

12. Chanel J12 (2000) - Iconic modern watch that blended Chanel's fashion sensibility with fine watchmaking. The J12's bold and glossy black ceramic design fused style and substance. 

13. IWC Big Pilot (1940) - Quintessential aviator's watch famed for its massive size and legibility. The Big Pilot is a modern icon that stays true to IWC's instrumental roots. 

14. Panerai Luminor (1950) - Distinctive professional diver's watch invoking Panerai's naval heritage. The Luminor's rugged yet stylish design and tritium tubes make a bold statement.  Also Pre-Vendom watches made between 1993-1996. A classic!

15. TAG Heuer Monaco (1969) - Iconic square-cased chronograph worn by Steve McQueen in film Le Mans. Evokes the glamor of motorsport and TAG Heuer's avant-garde spirit.

 16. Cartier Tank (1917) - One of the most influential luxury watch designs ever. Louis Cartier's elegant Tank shape has enduring appeal. beautiful Tank!

 17. Omega Speedmaster (1957) - Iconic chronograph that went to the moon with Apollo 11 mission. Mix of sporting and celestial heritage gives it legendary status. 

18. IWC Portofino (1984) - Understated and elegant dress watch inspired by Mediterranean chic. Simplicity and refinement define the Portofino's timeless style. 

19. Tudor Black Bay (2012) - Contemporary dive watch that pays homage to Tudor's 1950s/60s models. Combines vintage inspiration with modern ruggedness and performance. 

20. Seiko 5 Sports (1963) - Iconic budget automatic watch that brought mechanical timekeeping to the masses. Rugged, reliable and fashionable, it epitomizes Seiko's philosophy.

HK Snob

How many of the above you have had before?

 

There are so many good watches that may be good for your collection

The passion for watch has to be built up with years of collection, understanding horology, meeting with some of the collectors and representatives from the individually watch company.

There is no need to follow what 80% of most people know about what their so-called best watch collection's definition.

If you follow this thought about how most people appreciate the watch becoming what is your favorite watches will not mean that you can't find what you love.

Watch is able to be categorized love of individualism.

There is always very beautiful, rare and iconic watch not necessary those 80% can recognize...

such as Reverso, pre-Vendom Panerai, Rolex Prince, Rogers Dubuis bold large watch of the early time such as MuchMore, Cartier Crash, Santos and Tank. Patek's Calatrava, Vacheron Constantin Moonphase, slim and smaller Overseas of 37mm...Royal Oak of the 70s', Piaget Lapis or Onyx dress watch, Rolex Day Date Coral, Submariner Onyx, Rolex Milgauss of the 60s. 

Keep the list on and get what you like and more importantly is still affordable!

HK Snob

這一些對答有80% 他吾會買的

 這一些對答有80% 他吾會買的。

1.有冇多一些相片看看，看完説謝謝。

2.可否比個盒我看看。我説過二天拿出來比你看，他說.好的不急的！   

3.原價十萬，他問可以平多一些嗎？

你如果覆價佢九萬九或者八萬。佢都吾買的！

4.為什麼無原來出世紙的？

5.謝謝！

6.好的.比我考慮二天！

7. 最平可以幾多錢?

HK Snob

Luxury watch is the latest currency

 Aftermath of US EU countries with all-round sanctions including German agricultural seeds for Russia.

Chinese are learn to keep physical goods and not paper money, thought there is not official announcement on this but we can feel that people of China are awakened.  There will be a huge round of inflation as the US, Japan, UK, Sweden, etc, are printing more and more money.  So the Chinese are planning not to accept USD but only their RMB for payments.

 When the U.S. COVID-19 epidemic broke out and there was no effective preventive measures and control for a long time…  the country’s populations were isolated, production stagnated, and stocks of supplies quickly dwindled, and the Federal Reserve desperately cut interest rates to stimulate the economy including printing bank note for the so-called quantitate ease. 

The Euro, the US dollar, the British pound, and the Swiss franc are all such currencies and will gradually become useless paper.  When the country’s inventory is extremely running low and scarce.         Everyone understands that whoever exchanges real physical things for these spirit money is insane.

Just within this quarter, the United States has issued an additional 1.9 trillion dollars, and the Japan also printed a large amount of money. Banknote becomes as cheap as toilet paper or spirit money.

Many people including Eastern Europe as majority understands that in any country where the epidemic is not under control, they will no longer exchange physical objects for foreign currency.

Many people are using watches as for their latest tool for money laundry. As anywhere anytime you can cash and there is no customs restriction when you travel anywhere in the world.

We have taken this action, and it is estimated that Vietnam, India, Malaysia, Indonesia other than China and other producing countries will also adopt similar "CLOSE DOOR" measures.

In view of this, I think many of the people will use their extra money buying/selling luxury watches as an investment fortress for the reasons:

1.       Easy to cash

2.       As an alternate security of their properties other than Bitcoins, NFT

3.       Easy to move around across countries

4.       No Lawyers service charges, no commission fee

5.       The higher price of the watch the higher the demand

6.       The Big Three, Plus RM and Rolex

 

Why not? As these are the new currency now.

 

HK Snob

Trend of smaller watch

The trend for slimmer and smaller diameter watches started 2017, Why? Larger watch carries more space and dimension, larger watch tends to be more “Empty” whereas smaller watch tends to look for “Refined” and packed with feature.. Large watches have a lot of empty space to deal with, both on the case and dial. Taller, thicker watches tend to have cases that feel slab-sided, while watches large in diameter often have dials with an overabundance of negative space, making the watch feel empty and chopper-board like. When a case is unnecessarily beefed up in size simply to suit consumer demands, these design missteps become all the more inordinate.

On the contrary, smaller watches tend to feel more refined and packed with features. Watches that are gratuitously big don’t feel as purposefully made; heaven, making a big watch is relatively easy. But small watches require more planning and working within more constraints. Complex movements need to be engineered to be slim and compact. Cases need to be thin but still strong enough to resist shocks, deformation and water resistant. Tolerances between the dial, gasket, base metal, dial, hands gears, and crystal need to be as tight as possible.

A substantially-sized watch is an ever-present weight upon your wrist, a truly comfortable watch is one that feels like feather on your wrist. Thinner, smaller watches are just inherently lighter by virtue of using less material. Further, if your wrist shape is more round than it is flat, a smaller diameter watch will sit more flush with your wrist. I wonder who could wear a Rolex Platinum Daytona all days, you know its weight is like a small hammer.

Many people being brainwashed by fashion fascism dictating huge clocks? Why is it that men’s clothes have been getting tighter and skinnier, like G2000’s popular slim fit shirts with narrow shoulders and slim trousers but at the same time men’s watches grew bigger and fatter? A weird and contradictory development. we call it the terror of fashion, that people without taste follow blindly. Of course if you are 6 feet tall, it is not in proportion to wear a 36mm Sport watch (Rolex new Explorer I)

My advices are to buy whatever you like regardless of size. And to consider the smallness. In fact, if recent industry trends are any indicator, more small watches are on the way.

Look at these new launched models…

Vacheron Constantin introduced 37mm Overseas, they are not made unisex not just for ladies and also for men who appreciate smaller watches they intend to find in the market. 

Paneria introduced a smaller diameter of 38 mm watches for lady, and they don't have to put a 44mm watch on their wrist, I think that is a decent size to wear.

Omega also launch an Aqua Tera 5 colourful watches with 38mm in this year.

Tudor’s downsized Black Bay Fifty-Eight is a prominent example in dive watch form, coming in at 39mm.

Oris, meanwhile, produced a 36mm version of both its Divers Sixty-Five and Big Crown Pointer Date.

In W & W 2022, Audemars Piguet launched a 34mm Royal Oak for lady, Yes 34mm!

The new Super hot Vacheron Constantin 222, it is 37mm!

HK Snob

Picture: AP latest 34mm Royal Oak

16 Green Watches produced in 2021

These are known green or olive dial watch produced and released in 2021.

Most of them are available except only 170 pieces of Patek Nautilus in green is available to "public". The first one was sold with HK$6.0m.

Amongst those I like the 36 mm Rolex Date Just Palm 126234 which is rare to be in the market. 

I had also these, JLC Reverso, Breitling X2 pieces, Zenith Safari Olive.

Oris Cotton candy was fun watch to buy too, I think I bought three blue and two Green.
Cartier Solarbeat is a new technology that the power storage device need to be serviced only after 16 years! 

Besides Patek Nautilus, what is the watch that you think their future value may go up more than three times?

HK Snob

What is new trend for watch size?

I think we had a common preference for larger watch in 1998-2015, at that time we are looking for bigger watches starting at 40mm, 41mm, 44mm, for Rolex. we had such a prejudice on some of the "Small watches" such as 34mm to 36mm. I can say the cut off line was 36mm, as anything smaller than 36mm is classified as "Small",  36mm-40mm is "medium", 41-47mm is "large", there is exception that size like Audemars Piguet T3 is giant of 54mm!

By that time 2008-2014, we could see ladies with smaller wrist would go for Rolex Yacht Master II or Deepsea sea dweller Cameron 44mm,  and that was a hit.

Almost all the beautiful golden proportion dress watches in the range of 33-36mm were being boycotted as they say that is "too small" or even described as "dwarf ugly" so as their prices going low. If you were smart to buy off those good watches at that time, you are super rich now. As Breguet and Vacheron Constantin had made beautiful Tourbillon with 36mm in 2000. That was cheap to get by 2015 and now their price had been up at least 40%.

The time is changed and people is changing their taste and feel "bore"" wearing the bigger watches!

Starting from Panerai who used to make bigger watches started to slim down their watches in 2017.

By 2018 they launched a 45mm slimmer automatic 3 days watches limited 100 pieces,  1940 PAM00694, followed by 42, 40 mm for meeting the market demand.

Rolex launched a retro Explorer I with 36mm size 214270 in 2021 which is an iconic move of a traditional watch maker Rolex.

A price is reflecting the demand of the majority of watches collectors. the attached AP Perpetual Calendar is 36mm, I bought that in 2017 with $60,000 and I sold it to a gym manager with merely $57,000 in 2020. well, the people taste has changed rapidly and price of it rose significantly from $100,000 to currently $230,000. That is a great news for a small watch to come with, more people in favour of getting this beautiful watch.

In fact the most important thing is what you feel about the watch "appeared to be" on our hand.

Rolex Day Date 41mm is replaced with Day Date 40mm as their new Day Date line side by side with Day Date 36mm.  Also we can see the vintage Day Date 36mm price is gong up, that means more people is looking for smaller diameter format of the Day Date

On the other hand, Vacheron Constantin launched a 2300V which is 37mm diameter line side by side with a larger line 4500V 41mm. to meet the demand for both larger and medium size of the watches.

Now I think this is the size changes to smaller diameter by 3mm. 

Some of the watches with 37mm is not small at all.

Some of the watches with size 44mm is classified too large, really?

Again, size is one thing, matching your wrist is the another big thing.

More important is the dial design, some watches look as if it is very larger comparing with some watch with the same watch diameter of different dial design, also how the design of the lug width and bracelet would change the perception of how "large" or "small" the watch looks like.

Find a watch with the appropriate size is more important just the figure of diameter itself.

HK Snob

Watchgret

We used to have gathering and many of watch collectors came to show his timepiece at a fixed time on every Saturday… there had been a few cases that reminded me sometimes decision should be made within ten seconds, thinking too much will lose our opportunity.

1.     8 years ago, one guy showed his AP 5402 A series in the meeting and asking who would like to buy it? I was the first one say I buy not even asking the price… So I got it next day paid. That watch is still keep under custody in Philippines by my good friend. 

2.       Another occasion that one guy showed his Vacheron Constantin 222 in solid gold with request of  certain amount,  I was the first one said “I buy it!” I got this and this was my good judgement. 

3.      There is one folk asked who want to buy this Submariner 16618 with Onyx dial with HK$180,000, I hesitated a while and I passed, well, someone bought it immediately.

After 4 years, the same guy came in and ask who want to buy this Submariner 16618 with onyx dial? This time I say “I take It’ and I was able to possess such a great timepiece from Rolex.. and later we sold with 2X the price we bought after one and half years. 

Watchgret

I had a chance to buy a Rolex Submariner 16618 solid gold with Lapis lazuli dial with HK$130,000 in 2012. But I had another offer of Daytona 16528, instead what pity I was I took the Daytona… but that Sub Lapis was sent for auction 6 months later for HK$730,000. This is a big regret for me.

 HK Snob

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Luxury watch market amidst the Pandemic in Hong Kong

 As previously reported by friends, dealers, collectors, most people look to the secondhand market to buy their timepieces, and vintage watches pretty much dominate the sector. I should say more people go to the neo-vintage as they are tend to be more affordable.

Before the Pandemic in Q1 2020, we speculated that watch price would drop, however due to the strong Quantitative Easing by the US federal reserve, money is getting less valuable than it was before. People has money would either go for buying real estate and or certain expensive luxury watches.

That statement confirmed true after one year of the pandemic, where high-net-worth-individuals have continued to splurge on luxury items.

For example, the Sotheby's Important Watches live auction concluded on December 15 2020 and brought in $10.4 million — up 27% from 2019 — with a Patek Philippe double name Tiffany Ref 2499  selling for $818,600. Other standouts from the auction: A Cartier Ecran Mystery Clock that went for $564,500, and a Salmon Dial Audemars Piguet Royal Oak selling for $441,000.

In addition to the hype around owning a Rolex or Richard Mille, most understand that many luxury watches hold good investment value, like a Birkin or a Basquiat. These are all high-end, quality goods that have historically proved to retain the value paid for them or even become more valuable over time, often significantly.

Though Bain reported in November that the luxury goods market has fallen 23% to $265 billion this year, very expensive items such as Hermes bags relatively untouched by financial discord and market downturns. As during last weekend, the only shop that has a 20 persons queue at the entrance is Hermes at Canton Road of Tsim Sha Tsui.

Richard Mille is the Hermes of watches now. "Richard Mille is the most expensive. It's not just the craftsmanship, technology and research on material; it is the supply and demand. They only make maybe four or five thousand watches a year. You can't really get them.

Deloitte's 2019 "Global Powers of Luxury Goods" found that the average annual sales from the top 32 watch and jewelry companies topped $2 billion in 2017, and a 2018 Bain report stated that the secondhand market was worth nearly $25 billion, with watches and jewelry making up over 80% of all secondhand market purchases.

The next best investment after Richard Mille is a Patek, Audmears Piguet and Rolex. Not just because they are beautiful, but because they also retain their value. From there, Audemars Piguet — Bieber bought one in 2019 for $50,000 as a "lil wedding gift" to himself. Patek Philippe is also a solid choice — Jay-Z owns one worth at least $2.2 million. Note to take note that within these two years, we see that the demand on Blue dial Overseas Vacheron Constantin is getting higher, so as their classic pieces such as Perpetual Calendar especial housed in case of Overseas, 1921… etc.

Before the COVID-19 pandemic hit and destabilized global financial markets, the luxury sector was still recovering from the impact of the Hong Kong protests, which saw Swiss watch imports to the region decline by 26.8% in comparison to 2018. Facing the coronavirus pandemic, the luxury watch industry was preparing for its worst year yet. However, since 1Q 2020 up to now. The Watch price has been increasing a.

Most obviously is Daytona, All Daytona price has been up more than 15-20% Q2 2021 comparing with that of Q2 2020.

The moral of the story is:-

Real estate dollar per square foot is breaking record at midst of COVID-19.

Wealthy people are still buying luxury watches and Hermes amid the pandemic.

Poor people is still suffering from either loss of job or losing pay hours!

No confirmed date of border lock down lifted even for Macao or China, not need to mention other countries such as Thailand, Singapore, or EU.

I wish that more HK people would go for COVID Vaccination free of charge, we are living in a paradise that we have millions of vaccine surplus back up by our motherland but people is hesitate to go for jab. Those poor countries have thousands of death tolls every day because of not enough vaccine!

HK Snob

 

 

Buying Behaviour

When Williams-Sonoma introduced bread machines, sales were slow. When they added a “deluxe” version that was 50% more expensive, the original started flying off the shelves; the first bread machine now appeared to be a bargain.

iPhone high end version and lower version is actually similar in hardware but matter of a software to limit the available functions and set a different marketing price for what they want to get main profit margin they expect.

Tversky and Kahneman conducted the following experiment: when contemplating the purchase of a $25 pen, the majority of subjects would drive to another store 15 minutes away to save $7. When contemplating the purchase of a $455 suit, the majority of subjects would not drive to another store 15 minutes away to save $7. The amount saved and time involved are the same, but people make very different choices. Hong Kong People are known to be good at this practice… Searching in internet, Carousell, facebook Chrono24 for the lowest offers and then they select the one they want to approach.

Salvador Assael, the Pearl King, single-handedly created the market for black pearls, which were unknown in the industry before 1973. His first attempt to market the pearls was an utter failure – he didn’t sell a single pearl! So, he went to his friend Harry Winston, and had Winston put them in the window of his 5th Avenue store with an outrageous price tag attached. Then he ran full page ads in glossy magazines with black pearls next to diamonds, rubies, and emeralds. Soon, black pearls were considered precious. In short, marketing is needed for making luxury items sales possible. 

Setting a price

Every item has a price. I purposely don’t want to put an over high price tag and wait for negotiation, and I think wise buyer know the real price and low bailer will be filtered away by doing this. I think negotiation is not my style, and if one day this is likes some supermarket sales tricks buy one get one free, you had better beware on the luxury watch you bought in this offer.

HK Snob

Is there better choice other than Rolex?

     We can see over the last three decades, Rolex is having certain advantages:
1.     Being recognized easily by majority of people
2.      Enter to Luxury watch category after Patek Philippe,  Vacheron Constantin, Audemars Piguet,  A Lange, Paneria, Richard Mille, FP Journe…
3.       Demand is high so the long term value is there, limited to certain models
4.       It is reliable.
5.       What else? 
So how about its disadvantages
1.      Rolex is Lazy to take a major change in design.
They launch a new sub model with change of colour of dial, material of bezel, design of bracelet.
In 2014 September, Rolex launched the Batman 116710BLNR with Blue black bezel with Oyster bracelet, immediately created a lot of instant demad. By 2018 they introduced the Batgirl 126710BLNR with same blue black bezel with Jubilee Bracelet. Now after three years the Batman Comes back, a same design of Barman 2014 launched under model number 126710BLNR using new movement on oyster bracelet.
So what is the big deal? You’d never know what colour and combination they would introduce in 2022. 
2.       Rolex charges too much on the branding than the quality nowadays comparing with 20 years ago. 
3.       Rolex is a Mass-market product making 800,000 pieces a year. They produce in huge volume per years, equivalent to 3 times of the year production of all Patek Phillippe, Audemars Piguet, Vacheron Constantin, Richard Mille, A Lange, FP Journe…added up together. Seriously a mass production item.
4.       Rolex are being aggressively counterfeited all over the world.
Someone had said in the world 90% of the watches Rolex seen in the street is fakes, I think that is a right statement.
So yours Rolex may be also spotted as an Fake watch in certain people's eyes.
5.       Dress watch SRP price has been triple over the twenty five years starting at US$20,000 now.
Rolex used to make a few pieces of Cellini which were beautifully small and elegant even some of them were made with Onyx and or Lapis on the dial, that was about HK$20,000 back then, but now the entry level of Cellini is HK$150,000 using ordinary printing dial, and nothing special to me. 
6.      Vintage Rolex is tricky
For those who ha been addicted into VR (Vintage Rolex) knows that he has to study a lot on the model breakdown variety and combination of the Rolex dial, case bezel and bracelet you have is matching the S/N of the watch or not? There is a single stain or two on the lume may reduce 15% of the value? If there is hairline scratch on the dial may reduce 30% of the Watch total value. If there is a service dial, 50% the value of that watch value will be gone, or even no one wants to buy from you.
That is before you open the case, after open you may find more surprise? So the real good VR may worth a lot a there are too many Frankenwatch VR on Earth, today you are happy with your VR known to be perfect with correct period. You are lucky.
I am collecting 30 years of Rolex and I feel scary to buy sometimes.. even the trust seller may not be aware the full details and story of his article before selling you, lucky him and unlucky you bought that watch and you may not sleep all the days of the year. In In short, I had talked to myself why Rolex?Well, friend knows me I had almost sold out all my Rolex in 2020, now leave a few pieces which are  what I really like. And I had switching to my old favourite watches.  In fact there are more better choice I should say other than Rolex.  Patek Nautilus Calatrava of the 70, Royal Oaks, Reverso, Cartier Tank Americaine,  Tudor BB58, Panerai, Older Cellini, Vacheron Constantin dress watch…etc. 

I wear what I really like and I don’t need to express to anybody by wearing a Rolex.

HK Snob

The jewels of your watch

 La Pierrette is a small great company making only one product, the Rubies for Swiss watches. Rubies are jewel bearing for precision tiny gear wheels inside a watch to reduce friction and hence to maintain good time keeping ability. This company is owned by Patek Philippe, Rolex and Richemont group, located in Vallee de Jous in Switzerland, having only 120 staff occupying 88,700 sq. foot factory space. Supplying 40-50 millions of rubies a year that could possibly be contained in in 2-3 1.5L jars! Each of the rubies or jewels are manufactured within precision of 2-3 microns.

Types of jewels in a watch

1. Hole jewel

2. Cap jewel

3. Pallet jewel

4. Roller jewel

Colour of jewel 

99% watch jewels is fuchsia, but RM is using black as they are more likely matching the skeleton movement design to look cool!  La Pierette had started this manufacturing in 1915... well that company can supply the rubies for these companies yearly consumption: Patek Philippe, Vacheron Constantin, Audemars Piguet, Rolex, Panerai, Richard Mille, Omega. etc. 

Remarks : each manual winding watches contains 17 rubies, automatic watch has 21 jewels. RM-11 has 68 jewels and most complicated watches has  242 jewels. Each of the jewels having cost of a few Swiss frans! 

HK Snob

 

大表的潮流

 大表的潮流 

講起Panerai, 1990年代只不過一個意大利一個街邊小店. 根本無人認悉，而那時侯重未興起超過40mm 的大型手表。想當年香港筆王TK Lee擁有自己嘅時裝旺角在Landmark，太古城，太古廣場有十三間店時裝店，Try Me, Momento, Marizo Bonus. TK 自己經常啲去意大利辨時裝.週時經常一家小店同老伯伯打招呼，因為無生意.大有時間吹水。店也吾出名，當時無太多用勇於戴這大型怪獸表。Panerai 屬於冷門表，但係那時侯已經出現了有Panerai 致駕勢的設計，簡約，大隻44mm , 47 mm, Tritium 夜光3，6，9， 12 ，兩針，半圓形霸的guard 直到1996年Richemont 用銀彈政策先至開始托起Panerai 亦都搞得有聲有色，所以你問我Panerai 早期嘅錶1993到1996 年代表作最值得收藏。那時侯是Pre-Vendome 資本運作的，因為規模少所以產量更少。有啲型號甚至只出兩隻。而有最原始的意大利優美設計。1996 史泰龍拍 Daylight 帶住呢隻201/a開始帶出大表潮流，繼而阿諾舒華辛力加同時帶啲Panerai 表就把超大型錶帶入呢個亞洲市場！

後來2003年阿諾舒華辛力加拍Terminator 3用嗰隻錶足足54 mm大就是AP嘅T3 

手表嘅設計就越來越大⋯ 

後記

我上過筆王李半山大宅。屋企內大概有4000支墨水筆！目不暇給真係一時無兩！佢要收埋好多 Patek Philip呀寶璣呀，AP, Rolex 錶!

HK Snob