In 2025, Swiss watch exports reached a total value of CHF 25.6 billion, representing a 1.7% decrease compared to 2024. This mild contraction followed record-breaking growth in previous years and was characterized by significant market polarization and trade disruptions.
Regional Performance Summary
Americas (+0.3%): The United States
remained the top destination, accounting for 17% of global Swiss watch exports.
Performance was highly volatile due to a 39% import tariff imposed in August,
which led to massive front-loading of inventory followed by a late-year
recovery when duties were rolled back to 15% in December.
Europe (-0.3%): Most major markets remained
stable, including the United Kingdom (+0.1%) and France (+1.3%). However, a
sharp downturn in Germany (-6.8%) dragged down the regional average.
Asia (-3.8%): This region saw the most
significant decline, driven by weak demand in China (-12.1%) and Hong Kong
(-6.5%). Japan also fell by 5.8%, impacted by a stronger yen and reduced
spending from Chinese tourists.
Key Market Winners & Emerging Trends
High-Growth Markets: India continued its
rapid expansion with 8.9% growth in exports, while Saudi Arabia (+8.9%) and
South Korea (+2.4%) also showed resilience. Mexico emerged as a new dynamic hub
in Latin America.
Market Polarization: Ultra-luxury watches
(priced above CHF 50,000) accounted for 37% of export value and drove nearly
90% of the industry's total growth, even though they represented only 1.4% of
total volume.
Volume Decline: Total export volume fell to 14.6 million units, a 4.8% decrease and a multi-decade low, as the industry shifted further toward higher prices and lower volumes.
Future Outlook
The Federation of the Swiss Watch Industry (FH) expects 2026 to remain steady but marked by uncertainty due to geopolitical factors and a strong Swiss Franc.
Industry analysts are divided on whether the current state of the Swiss watch market is "healthy," often describing it as a period of structural recalibration rather than a simple decline.
Signs of "Health" (Resilience
& Value)
Secondary Market Recovery: For the first
time in years, secondary market prices rose by 4.9% in 2025. This suggests that
the "bubble" has burst and prices are re-anchoring to intrinsic value
rather than speculative hype.
Strong Ultra-Luxury Demand: Watches priced
above CHF 50,000 contributed 89% of the industry's total growth in 2025,
showing that the high-end collector base remains extremely robust.
Strategic Diversification: Growth in markets like India (+8.9%) and Saudi Arabia (+8.9%) is successfully helping to cushion the significant downturn in China.
Signs of "Unhealth" (Pressure
& Fragility)
Volume Crisis: Export volumes hit a
multi-decade low of 14.6 million units in 2025—a 51% drop from the 2011 peak.
This indicates the industry is becoming a "niche luxury club" rather
than a broad manufacturing sector.
Extreme Concentration: Just four brands
(Rolex, Patek Philippe, Audemars Piguet, and Richard Mille) now capture 76% of
the industry’s total profit. This "cartel-like" concentration makes
the industry highly dependent on a few players.
Labor & Supply Chain Stress: Employment in the sector fell by 1.3% in 2025, and many component manufacturers have had to resort to partial unemployment programs due to slowing orders from mid-tier brands.
The "Squeezed Middle" Risk
The most "unhealthy" aspect is
the fragility of the mid-range. While ultra-luxury thrives, brands in the CHF
500 – CHF 3,000 range are facing "existential" pressure to reinvent
themselves as they lose ground to both smartwatches and more exclusive luxury
marques.
Summary
Ultra-luxury watches (priced above CHF 50,000) accounted for 37% of export value and drove nearly 90% of the industry's total growth, even though they represented only 1.4% of total volume.
The driver was most of the watch collectors or investor focus on the top brands, Patek Philippe, Audemars Piguet, Rolex, Richard Mille, being a watch lover, somehow I think the collection should be:-
1. Watch that I like
2. Comfortable to wear
3. The unique design and workmanship
4. Reliable
5. Not necessary the top brands
6. Something representing my character
7. Best is no one know what this watch is, at least I don't have to see people wearing the same watch as I!
8. Value keeper is an added bonus only but not a must
Paul Ip
