讓我進一步探討手錶行業未來的動態與挑戰

一個關鍵因素是品牌如何調整策略以適應這種市場環境的轉變。

瑞士手錶製造商可能需要重新評估他們的零售網絡,關閉一些表現不佳的精品店,

勞力士剛剛關閉運作了七十六年南非辨工室了，而需要更多依賴與忠實客戶的直接互動。

選擇性的折扣或促銷優惠也可能有助於擴大他們的客戶群,而不僅局限於最富裕的收藏家。 

中低端手錶買家群體,佔據市場的重要份額,可能會在購買決策上變得更加謹慎。

他們可能會採取觀望態度,等待價格開始再次上升後再進行購買。

品牌需要密切關注這一細分市場,設法重新點燃他們的興趣,同時不會貶低產品價值。 

 供給與需求的平衡在決定市場復蘇的時間和軌跡上至關重要。

如果品牌能夠掌握好這一平衡 - 既不過度生產,又能確保熱門型號充足供應 - 他們或許能重燃消費者的熱情。然而,如果採取"餓賣"策略處理不當,也可能適得其反。 

 除了全球動態,香港市場面臨的特殊挑戰也值得關注。作為連續十年瑞士手錶最重要的出口目的地之一,香港已經看到奢侈品買家,特別是來自中國大陸的遊客,大幅減少。

這導致了主要購物區的商店關閉,進一步加劇了該行業在該地區的困難。 

 總的來說,手錶行業到2025年夏季重拾動力的道路,將取決於其調整策略、吸引客戶以及管控供需平衡的能力。那些能夠有效應對這些複雜而相互關聯因素的品牌,可能會更好地渡過當前的風暴,並在未來幾年中強勢崛起.

The 2024 Swiss Watch Market: An Analysis of Trends and Strategies

Introduction:

Against the backdrop of the esteemed Watches and Wonders 2024 event, concerns arise regarding the decline in Swiss watch exports in March. The value of exports fell by 16.1% compared to March 2023, amounting to a total of 2.0 billion francs. This decline was primarily driven by reduced demand from China and Hong Kong, major trading hubs for watches in Asia. Overall, the first quarter experienced a 6.3% decrease compared to the previous year. 

Sales Performance by Price Segments: 

The decline in exports was observed across all price segments. Watches priced at over 3,000 francs experienced a decline of 9.9%. The drop was more significant for products priced under 500 francs, with a decrease of 18.8%. The 500-3,000 francs category witnessed a decline of 38.2%. 

Market Performance by Region: 

Most markets experienced weakened demand in March. Notably, the United States (-6.5%), Japan (-3.5%), and the United Arab Emirates (-3.6%) were less affected compared to the average decline. Conversely, China suffered a significant decline of 41.5%, reaching a level below that of March 2020 when the industry faced a halt due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Hong Kong (-44.2%), Singapore (-14.8%), the United Kingdom (-13.2%), Germany (-13.1%), and France (-11.9%) were closer to the global average. 

Historical Perspective: Swiss Watchmaking Over the Past 50 Years:

The Swiss watchmaking industry has undergone significant transformations over the past five decades. One pivotal event was the Quartz watch crisis of 1970. Exports reached their peak in 1974 at 84.4 million watches and movements but plummeted to just 31.3 million within a decade. This crisis led to a divergence in the industry, with the emergence of everyday watches like Swatch and the luxury segment.

Brand Identity and Market Share:

Swiss watches are categorized into super luxury, luxury, hi-end, and mid-range streams. Brand identity plays a crucial role in building brand value. Top players such as Richard Mille, with watches worth CHF 200,000, manufacture only a few thousand pieces annually. In contrast, Swatch produces millions of watches each year. As of 2023, Rolex dominates the market with a 30.3% market share, followed by Cartier 7.5%, Omega 7.5%, Patek Philippe 5.6%, and Audemars Piguet, among others.

Market Growth and Strategies:

The Swiss watch market has experienced both growth and contraction simultaneously. While volumes have decreased by almost 45% since 2015, the value of high-end watches priced over CHF 3,000 has surged by 15.6% in the past year. This trend signifies a shift towards higher-priced luxury timepieces. The industry's focus on producing fewer watches at higher prices reflects a protectionist approach aimed at boosting demand.

 Future Outlook:

The market's trajectory for the next decade will be shaped by distinct strategies related to brand identity, average selling price (ASP), value proposition, and sales approaches. While hunger sales may be utilized to stimulate demand, it is crucial to note that watches are not considered investment assets. The luxury watch industry is adapting to the digital age, with younger generations showing greater interest in wearable technology rather than traditional mechanical timepieces. However, the market remains strong, with major players reporting impressive growth.

 Conclusion:

In conclusion, the Swiss watch market is undergoing dynamic changes. The industry has transitioned towards producing fewer watches of higher value, focusing on rarity, exclusivity, and storytelling. Younger consumers are gravitating towards digital wearables, while the 30-50 age group still appreciates Swiss mechanical watches as indicators of social status. Vintage watch enthusiasts continue to cherish the craftsmanship of fine mechanical timepieces. It is essential for watch enthusiasts to buy and enjoy timepieces they personally appreciate, while recognizing the unique stories and value associated with rare and special watches.

HK Snob

Watch Business update in Hong Kong

Watch Business Update - May 2024 

In recent times, the gold price has reached a historical high, standing at HK$26,500 per tael. During my visit to Chow Tai Fok yesterday to purchase gifts for Mother's Day, I was struck by the soaring price of gold. Such high gold prices indicate a lack of trust in traditional currencies, leading individuals to invest in precious metals, with gold being the top choice. 

The ongoing conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine show no signs of resolution. Consequently, we anticipate that people will exercise caution when it comes to investing in luxury goods. Despite the fact that the wealthiest 1% of US citizens possess 30% of the country's wealth, it is uncertain whether this group will entirely divert their funds towards the watch business. Middle-class individuals, including managers, executives, investment bankers, IT professionals, businessmen, hotel managers, pilots, lawyers, and more, comprise the genuine supporters of the watch industry. Although not part of the super-rich class, Hong Kong residents are increasingly crossing the border to Shenzhen for weekend getaways, indicating a decrease in their willingness to invest as heavily as they did two years ago.

Comparing the current prices to those of May 2022, Rolex has experienced an average drop of 30%, Patek Philippe has dropped by 25% on average, and Audemars Piguet has experienced a 40% decrease. Vacheron Constantin is now offering its VIP customers the opportunity to purchase the new 222 model at the manufacturer's suggested retail price (MSRP), which was not possible in 2023. However, there have been few actual transactions for used Rolex watches among the 500 dealers in Hong Kong. It remains unclear whether prices have reached their lowest point, but it is expected that they will fluctuate in a U-shaped pattern before potentially rising again, particularly towards the end of the year following the replacement of US President Biden with Trump. 

Considering the current market conditions, it is advisable to invest in gold watches rather than stainless steel models, as the former holds greater value. Personally, I have ceased purchasing steel watches and shifted my focus towards high-quality gold timepieces. 

It is worth noting that the attached picture depicts TST 1881, where luxury shops such as JLC, Roger Dubuis, IWC, Cartier, Vacheron Constantin, and Panerai were present two years ago. However, at present, these establishments remain closed.

Thank you for reading. 

HK Snob

Rolex new watches highlight 2024

 Rolex 2024

I can’t rule out the affection of Rolex fans as Rolex takes up 50% of Swiss watch export revenues in 2023. Rolex’s new watch will be the focus of many of us.

Rolex has added a new stainless steel GMT-Master II to the lineup. Featuring the same split-color black and gray bezel, the new Rolex GMT-Master II 126710GRNR pairs its updated bezel with the green GMT hand and green dial text as the black and green left-handed GMT-Master II that debuted in 2022. Just like the rest of the models from the current GMT-Master II lineup, this new GMT-Master II 126710GRNR is powered by the Caliber 3285 automatic GMT movement, which features the brand’s Chronergy escapement and runs at a frequency of 28,800vph (4 Hz) with a power reserve of approximately 70 hours. Additionally, just like the other stainless steel models, this new GMT-Master II 126710GRNR is available with either the brand’s three-link Oyster or five-link Jubilee bracelets, and both versions are completed by Rolex’s Oysterlock clasp with the brand’s Easylink comfort extension system.

Rolex Deepsea in 18KT Yellow gold

Quite to my unexpected, for 2024, Rolex introduced a solid gold dive watch rated to 3900m. And never mind that you can wear a watch that deep into the deep sea with ease — this watch is about status, pure and simple. The new Rolex Deepsea 136668LB is big and stupid.

A 322g, solid 18k Deepsea on a solid 18k gold bracelet is contradictory to much of what we’ve seen from Rolex in the past. It is a 44m-wide, 17.7mm-thick gold watch.   And the bright blue ceramic Cerachrom bezel shines and matches as on the gold case. Put the gold and blue together with the weight and all you can think of this is a showy piece but not for you to wear everyday. May not be comfortable for me to wear. May be someone’s else.

Rolex Perpetual 1908 in Platinum “Ice Blue”

This is top-of-the-line Rolex dress watch, and I think many people like this watch more than the about GMT and Deepsea. Rolex has followed up with the Perpetual 1908 in platinum (ref. 52506) with an “ice blue” guilloché dial. It is done the traditional way with a hand-operated machine, the guilloché dial gives the watch an entirely different character. The striking pale blue is also more modern.

It is 39 mm wide and 9.5 mm, it is clean, well made, thin, appealing bright hue of the Ice Blue dial with a balance of denser weight of Platinum case, In its original form, the 1908 had excellent proportions for a modern-day dress watch in right proportion with size and thickness, overall is first grade Rolex watch.  At for US$31,000, a reasonable premium that is less than many brands levy for the metal. Just my personal comment, a brawn Croco strap isn't the best colour match for such a modern Rolex?

How do you like it? And I believe this is easier to get than the GMT Master II.

HK Snob

2024 Resolution

Reflecting on the year 2023, it has been a challenging period, particularly when compared to the relatively prosperous year of 2022. The prices of properties and luxury goods have plummeted, and the HS index has hit a low point of 16000, indicating a bearish market. With just five hours remaining, 2023 is about to become a part of history.

Contemplating my actions throughout the year, I can't help but feel the passage of time accelerating as I grow older. In the second quarter, I set a personal goal to achieve 100 consecutive flip hand push-ups by December 31, 2023. While my personal best stands at 50 repetitions, reaching halfway to my target, I recognize the inherent limitations of the human body. Completing 50 push-ups in one go is a source of great satisfaction, especially considering that there are likely fewer than 5000 individuals worldwide, particularly men over 60, who can accomplish this feat. In 2024, I will continue to explore different methods to further improve my performance.

Maintaining intermittent fasting has been a remarkable achievement, enabling me to sustain a weight range of 129-131 pounds. I am grateful for the vitality it has bestowed upon me and the absence of any medication requirements.

My venture into Wing Chun Kung Fu has instilled me with newfound confidence in handling both work and personal interactions. I am determined to continue my practice.

In terms of my watch collection, I recently acquired an Audemars Piguet Platinum square skeleton manual winding watch, becoming the fifth piece in my Audemars Piguet collection. Looking ahead to 2030, I hope these timepieces will appreciate in value and potentially be sold for $3 million.

Within my family life, I find immense joy in the relationships I share with my daughters and their mothers. They are my angels, and I hold no regrets. My love extends to their mothers as well.

As we approach the dawning of 2024, my sincere wish is for a year free from conflict and strife. May we all enjoy good health and happiness throughout the year.

Regarding my job, I aspire to forge stronger relationships with my customers, assisting them in attaining profitable outcomes, as this is an integral aspect of my professional responsibilities.

Happy new year!

HK Snob

The Market for Luxury Watches in Hong Kong: Analysis and Forecast

Introduction:

The market for luxury watches in Hong Kong has garnered significant attention, with many individuals inquiring about its current status and future prospects. In this essay, we will delve into the dynamics of the market, focusing on notable brands and their price trends. Additionally, we will provide insights into the potential forecast for 2024, taking into account global geopolitical factors and their potential impact on the luxury watch industry.

Current Market Overview:

Currently, the market for luxury watches in Hong Kong is characterized by a lack of transparency in terms of real transactions. Although dealer groups provide trade quotes, genuine transactions are scarce. Rolex authorized dealers (AD) possess limited stock, primarily available to select customers at suggested retail prices (SRP). Moreover, the secondary market for Rolex watches, particularly models like Daytona, GMT Master, and Submariners, has demonstrated relative stability in terms of pricing.

Luxury Brands and Price Trends:

Among the luxury brands, Audemars Piguet has experienced the most significant impact on prices. Hot items such as the Royal Oak have reportedly seen a decline of around 40% in market price. On the other hand, Vacheron Constantin, despite not being in highest demand, has managed to secure some of the sought-after models at prices drops from 30%, a notable decrease from 50-60% of AP comparing with price of 2022. Consequently, the current market presents an opportune time for potential buyers to consider acquiring hot models at comparatively lower prices.

Forecast for 2024:

When looking ahead to 2024, it is vital to consider the global geopolitical landscape and its potential influence on the luxury watch market. Ongoing conflicts, such as the US-RU-UK and IS-PA wars, are crucial factors to monitor. Notably, there are indications that US Republicans may reject any financial support for the UK President, potentially leading to the end of the RU-UK war by Q1 2024. If this occurs, global attention will likely shift to the Middle East region, where growing numbers of individuals feel disconnected from Israeli interests and may advocate for an end to the conflicts. However, the resolution of these conflicts ultimately depends on the actions of the United States.

Assuming the wars in the Middle East do reach resolution in 2024, it is expected that the world economy will experience a surge in positive energy, thereby fostering growth across various sectors. In the luxury watch market, this renewed economic vigor may lead to increased demand and subsequently higher prices by Q2 2024. It is crucial to note that these forecasts are subject to change and should be monitored closely.

Today's Sample Watch Prices:

To provide a glimpse into the current market, here are some estimated prices for popular watch models in Hong Kong:

Rolex GMT Master Pepsi Jubilee: HK$150,000

Rolex Daytona 2023 126500LN: HK$265,000

Rolex Daytona 116500LN (White): HK$220,000

Rolex Submariner 126610LN: HK$110,000

Audemars Piguet Royal Oak Blue 16202ST: HK$650,000

Audemars Piguet Royal Oak Blue 15202ST: HK$500,000 (discontinued model)

Vacheron Constantin Overseas 4605V/200R-B978 (35mm, pink gold): HK$465,000

Vacheron Constantin FiftySix 4600E/000R-B441 (40mm, pink gold, automatic): HK$210,000

Patek Philippe 5711 (Steel): HK$500,000

Conclusion:

In conclusion, the luxury watch market in Hong Kong offers opportunities for both seasoned collectors and individuals seeking good value. It is essential not to be swayed solely by a brand's image and hype, as there are many well-priced watches available. Ultimately, the true value of a watch lies in wearing and enjoying it, rather than keeping it stored away. As the market continues to evolve, staying informed about current trends and developments will be vital for making informed purchasing decisions.

HK Snob

Disclaimer: Please note that the prices provided are rough estimations, as they fluctuate daily, and variations may exist between different dealers.

HK Snob goes Youtuber

 Hi ALL

Pls subscribe my new YouTube channel " HK Snob" 

there are Watch, Audio, martial arts and many other topic.

HK Snob

HK Snob goes Youtube

Hi All friends, collogues, ASMPT business partners in overseas and China, please subscribe my new YouTube channels by "HK Snob" it has been established over two weeks and thanks for the support it has over 80,000 views. Your subscripting, share and comment is best to encourage me to put up more interesting topics.... Topics will cover Semiconductor process and the assembly equipment, hobbies on vintage Audio, local food in Hong Kong, Watch collection, Calligraphy, Wing Chun Kung Fu. Up-coming post will be about "Space Audio" that is a HK base audio company established since 1998 and the shop was appearing in the famous Hong Kong movie “Internal Affairs” (or "Mou gaan dou" in Cantonese) in 2002 with Andy Lau and Tong Leung. Audio Space later changed his brand new to Space Audio with the founder passed away in 2022. Before they are moved to new area to continue their audio business, we are luckily been selected to film it with interviews with the two owners of the shop, it is under editing and soon will be posted….

HK Snob

HK Snob Youtube channel

 Hi All friends, pls subscribe my new YouTube channel, comment and share to your friends.

This is the link

http://www.youtube.com/@PaulIp-xK4cw

HK Snob

Change of new career

Embrace the opportunity to explore new paths, broaden your horizon, 

and release your full potential

HK Snob