誰摧毀了中古勞力士表市場？

誰摧毀了中古勞力士表市場？

我喜歡中古款勞力士,喜歡帶有故事和歷史的勞力士手錶。

我曾擁有幾件收藏級的中古勞力士。那是在1990-2013年期間。其中,我最喜歡1803型日誌型,它們是最漂亮的勞力士之一,採用黃金、白金制造，尺寸為36毫米,非常適合我16.6公分的腕圍。然而,另一方面,這些中古Day Date 型號的價格一直在攀升。我們在2000年買到一枚黃金錶殼、黃金錶盤連原裝表帶的1803型,當時的價格約6萬元,5年後已接近10萬元。我相信2000-2010那是Day Date 型愛好者的黃金 十年。

眾所周知,古董手錶的價值取決於幾個因素:

1.手錶本身的原裝性,包括錶殼、錶盤、錶圈、錶冠、錶帶。

2. 手錶的狀況,包括錶盤、錶圈和錶殼。 

3. 是否附有原廠說明書和包裝盒等配件。 

需要注意的是,勞力士在錶殼、錶盤、指針、錶帶等方面有很多變體,因為勞力士以前每年生產很多手錶。2023年勞力士生產了120萬只手錶,這已超過百年來百達翡麗的總產量。

 在50年代到90年代,勞力士的錶盤錶針都係分別由第三方公司承包生產的,指針和面盆也可能是由不同的公司製造。後來勞力士連間瑞士最大嘅錶針廠都賣咗佢，70-80年代,由於稅務問題,有一些全金錶殼是在台灣、阿根廷、日本或英國製造的。所以這就使整個情況變得複雜起來。

即使勞力士也無法確定1971年中生產年GMT 1675型的哪一款錶盤是正確的。只有那些收藏家通過自己的實地調查,重建了勞力士全部的生產系列的資料，勞力士從未出版過一本書來告訴大家,1969或者1972 年GMT Master應該使用什麼樣的錶盤...當然,他們可能知道,但不會因為公眾的想要的而公開這些數據...如果你想問,可以把你的手錶帶到勞力士服務中心,他們會查閱他們的記錄來告知你,儘管這様，

香港的勞力士服務中心和客戶之間曾經就手錶認證問題發生過多次爭論。最初,勞力士說根本沒有粉紅金1803型號的這件面，幾個月後,一位勞力士經理找到我的朋友說:"對不起, XX 先生。 你的這枚1803型號,序號為這個YYY ，確實有這麼様的面...我們已經在瑞士數據厙重新確認了。"這是一個好的結局” , 但係在大多數情況下,他們是決定你的手錶是否真實的－方！ 你沒有權利和資格與他們爭論,因為勞力士就是至高無上的皇帝！

也有很多自稱是勞力士專家的收藏家們，他們甚至可以對勞力士手錶進行認證。但是根據什麼數據他們可以告訴你你的勞力士是正確的錶盤、正確的錶圈?憑經驗?被公認為勞力士專家的大人物?勞力士先生?誰知道呢? 

 2018年,勞力士宣布不再為1990年代之前的復古勞力士提供認證和適當的維修服務...(確實年份記唔起了） 

這基本上葬送了大部分擁有幾枚到幾百枚中古勞力士的收藏家。其中一個原因是,客戶和勞力士之間就復古手錶存在很多爭議。勞力士希望保持手錶的原有功能,如防水性和指針與錶盤的夜光性,所以每當你想維修手錶時,他們很可能會要求更換錶盤和指針或更換錶圈以確保恰當的夜光效果和防水功能。然而,在進行這種維修後,你的中古勞力士的價值就會損失50%,因為它變成了維修錶盤(service dial) 而不是原裝錶盤! 值得留意嘅日本勞力士服務中心所維修嘅錶大部份佢都同你打磨。 香港14 樓中你可以叫佢唔打磨佢就唔打磨。我唔知今日仲係咪咁。應該係啩？ 

也許勞力士是在試圖保護自己,這將迫使人們,特別是新手收藏家,去買全新的勞力士或至少是新中古款勞力士, (泛指那－些1990-2000生產的勞力士。很明顯,在宣布這一消息後,很多人都感到害怕,不想再加入中古勞力士俱樂部...甚至包括我自己和我的朋友。相反,我們的重點會轉移到新中古款勞力士,如配有藍寶石水晶玻璃的勞力士手錶。或者乾脆新勞力士了。 

收集勞力士的序號從5位數開始。Daytona型是15628、15620或更新型號,GMT Master是16710或16760,1675型、6542型則是收藏界的巫毒。至於Submariner , Sea-Dweller,則是16610而不是1680,或16600而不是1665。 

 中古勞力士的美學價值

一位中古勞力士專家曾告訴我,手錶價值的70%在於錶盤。也就是說,更換錶盤並不意味著價值一定會上升。許多收藏家都喜歡帶有漂亮斑駁patina dial , tropical dial 的錶盤,這會讓手錶看起來更加道地,也增添了它的故事性。更換一枚經過歲月洗禮的美麗錶盤會摧毀手錶的價值。

 如果錶盤受到嚴重損壞,而不是自然老化,那又是另一回事。錶盤嚴重損壞的手錶,價值將低於更換或維修過錶盤的手錶。這關係到買家的感受。他們才是決定手錶實際價值的人,而不是市場價格。 

很多不誠實的經銷商和/或勞力士手錶賣家正在製造"Franken Rolex"手錶,方法是將不同型號的勞力士零件拼裝成一只手錶。我有一個菲律賓朋友,曾經到旺角一家店鋪購買10只主要為老款的勞力士手錶。當他回到家後將手錶送往勞力士進行維修時,發現這10只全部都是Franken手錶。他請我幫助他要求退款,但店家並不同意,因為發票上沒有承諾在某日期後可以更換。事實上,所有的Franken零件都是真正的勞力士零件,所以從法律角度來說,店家並沒有欺騙你。我已經記不清他最後是否成功退款,那已經是12年前的事了。

甚至連著名的拍賣行在預覽時,也會發現一些問題,比如一只1803型號的白金手錶配有不銹龬的錶冠！ 或許那是一款特別的藍色錶盤,非常漂亮的作品。為什麼會有不銹龬錶冠呢?事實上,我們不知道為什麼這位表主沒有換成白金錶冠。也許他並不知情。另一個著名的案例是一位香港影星YML 的Daytona手錶,也出現了類似的問題,而且這只手錶是從一家香港著名的Vintage勞力士專賣店購買的。

想像一下,如果勞力士手錶店的店主既不知道也不關心這些問題....他還是將這只手錶售給了一位著名的收藏家,我相信在這件事之後,這位收藏家再也不會從那家店購買了。

即使是大明星也會被騙, 或者是賣家也是不知情收回來，也不知情的賣了出去？而這只手錶並不便宜,他原本打算拿去拍賣,估價600萬元。誰還敢投資購買老款中古勞力士手錶呢?

勞力士的維修中心已經宣布不再支持這些老款手錶。拍賣行也在售賣Franken手錶。大型店鋪也在銷售可疑的Franken勞力士手錶。

所以很多收藏家對於尋找老款勞力士手錶已經失去興趣,也沒有人能夠站出來說"這只手錶是真品"。相反,總是有人跳出來說你的錶盤是"翻新的"、"非原裝錶盤"。這真的很傷心,也摧毀了老款勞力士市場。自2016年以來,老款勞力士的價格不再上漲,反而呈下降趨勢。我試問： 誰願意用三十萬買了－古董勞力士，有－天，開開心心的拿去勞力士十四樓維修中心。他們－位上工不到－年的服務員說： 唔好意思啊，我哋師傅話呢隻錶我勞力士冇出過呢個錶面㗎！

結論係邊個殺死勞力士古董股手表市場，其實係我地自己!

HK Snob

 

Voice out a Fake Rolex at Media?

 好多時見到外國綱站有人放隻勞力士錶出嚟，有D人就衝出嚟話件面不是原裝，或者表吾對期，有些早期的勞力士表，產量細，勞力士本身無正式記錄，連自己有幾多變種都未攪清楚，勞力士一年造嘅錶就多於Patek Philippe對上一百年做的總和咁多啦! 勞力士不同拍德菲麗或愛彼產量稀少，他們有詳細記錄產品流水號，型號外觀有詳細資料！就馮一張相決定人地隻錶係唔係原裝？

你真係有咁嘅本事？

就算送去勞力士人哋都正式搵個專家坐低鑒定啦？

另外講啦，就算人哋隻錶有問題你都應該客氣啲有保留地講喇。

 十年前發生咗一件事：有個錶收藏家見到一隻好特別嘅勞力士。一下子就話呢隻錶面假的，隨不知嗰個係架世堂人馬，立刻產上勞力士，勞力士說係出過呢隻錶，係原裝冇問題嘅，後事不用說了，朋友變成仇人了！有感而發，唔好又插！

HK Snob

我並不是勞力士的仇視者

 我並不是勞力士的仇視者,事實上,我喜歡勞力士,但我僅限於某些型號,並非所有的勞力士我都喜歡。例如,三年前泰芙尼 Oyster Perpetual Tiffany 曾經以高達 500,000 元的價格成交,而官方建議零售價只有 46,800 元(估計)。 

我認為那只是由於百達翡麗 5711 Tiffany泰芙尼藍的炒作,沒有中期價值(我無法預知長期價值,因為我沒有水晶球)。 

至於 2024 年新推出的勞力士手錶,真的沒有什麼引起我的注意,而 2023 年的 Day-Date Maze 可能會很有趣,但那肯定是超級稀有的型號。到目前為止,即使過了將近 1.5 年,我也還沒在香港看到一個。對於 2023 年的 Celebration 波波,我不認為我會想買它。也許這是一件適合 16 歲富家女父親生日禮物的好選擇。如果男士佩戴,我會懷疑他的品味。

 那麼,我喜歡哪些型號呢? 

我認為有幾個很不錯的型號會引起我的注意。對於那些夢寐以求的錶款,我喜歡Daytona Rainbow 彩虹迪通拿。對於我能負擔的,像是 1675 GMT tropical錶盤、16618 Lapis 或Onyx 潛水錶、16519 隕石錶盤迪通拿,又或者是簡單的 16528 黑或白錶盤。這就是我喜歡的勞力士。 

對於古董錶,是的,我喜歡,但那些是收藏品,不是真正的日常配戴。 

除了勞力士,我應該留意哪些其他手錶品牌呢?當然是卡地亞 - 單按鈕白金計時碼錶、Santos 實金表或 Pasha Salmon錶盤實金或不銹鋼。 

江詩丹頓,海外系列 42042 Salmon 錶盤,我認為這些都是美麗的作品。 

愛彼 - 星輪、皇家橡樹 15202、5402 鋼。Patek 3700, 3800 Pink Gold, Vacheron Constantin 222 steel or yellow gold. 

這裡提到的價格均為港元。

HK Snob

What is your next purchase on your Rolex in 2024

 Rolex GMT Master II Pepsi with Jubilee bracelet Ref 126710BLRO

Well. A great topics that many people wish to know.. there are ways to probe what we should consider to buy, if you are Rolex connoisseur, probably you will be interested to know what is next Rolex watch to buy.

In recent month, we can see the new Pepsi Ref 126710BLRO price is getting higher and higher, dealer trading price is $182,000 and even an 2021 NOS Pepsi Jubilee is around $150,000.

In 2023 The price if new Pepsi Jubilee bracelet was about $155,000.

As we have rumour that this Pepsi would be discontinued soon or someone is trying to buy up this particular model to boost the price of Rolex? As usually Rolex will not announced any discontinuing of watch in middle of the year unless for exception.

So what do you think of this watch? This had been in the market for about 9 years, and I think the early NOS version of People is likely more collectible as the Red colour on the bezel is pinky red like a cheery.

Milgauss Green glass blue dial 16400GV

Milguass is not always the top most sough after Rolex model in the years, however, note that  special one would be an exception, first of all, green glass, second the blue dial and

Rolex Daytona 116520 While dial.

This particular model price had been dropped a lot a naked watch could be found at about $125,000 to $130,000 and a full set with box and papers is about $150,000 to $160,000

Note that the P, K and Y series is particularly a target fir you ad these three years watch dial were prone to be changing colour to yellow or creamy I have noted a few good example of P series Year 2001, I bought in 2020 a $300,000 full set from Italy, and the price rose up to $800,000 in 2022.

The way it appears is astonishing as the dial is slightly creamy, no need to shine under the sunlight at various angle to show, it is already is a “Painted Dial as yellow”. Why only “P”, “K’ and “Y” series is likely to turn to yellowish dial most likely thee three years dial was subcon-ed into some Rolex.

Of course we can look for the beast Daytona Le Mans 126529LN, but I think that is another level for connoisseur. Not for the ordinary me…

 

HK Snob

Interesting old newspaper advisement on watches

 Which one was most impressive to you when you saw them before?

Me is the Day Date of Rolex 

HK Snob

Copyrights of Alex Lee, K.L. Malaysia,  ask permission to forward and copy via me first. 

Straits Times newspaper advertisement on Rolex, Oct 1978

 

Note the first sentence “A Rolex watch is an investment.” 

CEO of Rolex had just announced Rolex is not an investment in April 2024! What do you think? 

This is a very interesting newspaper from 1970 and his implication yesterday may not 100% represent the value of the watch tomorrow. 

Check the price of the Chronograph is almost “cheapest” and is most expensive today! 

So what is the cheapest today may be most expensive after 10-20 years? I know my choice, how about you?  

Pls don’t forward or copy unless get the personal agreement from the Alex Lee KL, who still keep the original newspaper today, he is Rolex fan living in Malaysia!

HK Snob

Which Rolex model we should consider purchasing 2024?

Introduction I was wondering which Rolex model we should consider purchasing, as many of my friends and followers on my watch blog have inquired about this. 

Rolex CEO Jean-Frédéric Dufour recently spoke with the Swiss newspaper NZZ ahead of the Watches and Wonders industry trade show in Geneva, which he co-founded and serves as president. When asked about the current state of the industry, Dufour acknowledged that 2024 would be a "challenging" year for watch manufacturers.

Dufour cited several factors contributing to this challenge, including increased material prices, such as the cost of gold. "Rolex produces everything here at Swiss costs. The Swiss franc is a challenge," he noted. "The cost of raw materials has also risen massively. A kilo of gold was 18,000 francs, now it is 66,000 francs in Switzerland. " Dufour also mentioned that rising interest rates and the geopolitical situation are affecting consumer sentiment and spending. He emphasized, "I don't like it when people compare watches to stocks. It sends the wrong message and is dangerous. We make products, not investments." 

Bob's Recommendation, coincidentally, a recent article from Bob's Watches, a reputable source with over two decades of experience in the luxury watch industry, covered this topic. The Bob's Watches Editorial Team stands at the forefront of watch expertise and insight. As they are not based in Hong Kong, their perspective on the best models for the local market could be particularly interesting.

Submariner Models to Invest in: 

Ref. 116610LN, Ref. 16610, Ref. 14060, and Ref. 16613 are suggested as potential investment pieces. The newer models starting with Ref 12XXXX are 1mm larger, and the Ref. 16610, with its T25 dial, may offer better value and the potential for a more beautiful patina compared to the Ref. 116610. The Ref. 14060 no-date model is also a consideration, though the Ref. 16613 two-tone Submariner may be less popular in Hong Kong, as steel tool watches are currently more sought after by influential individuals. 

Oyster Perpetual Models to Invest in: 

Ref. 124300, Tiffany Blue and Green models are considered good collectibles, but their current prices, often exceeding HK$130,000, are quite high. However, the 39mm Oyster Perpetual models are expected to hold their value well in the future due to their limited production. 

Explorer Models to Invest in: 

While Bob's Watches recommends Ref. 14270, Ref. 214270, Ref. 16570, and Ref. 216570, I have a slightly different perspective. I believe the Ref. 16550 "Cream Rail" dial Explorer II and the Ref. 16570 white dial are noteworthy options, as the Ref.16550 can be quite expensive at around HK$240,000 for a well-preserved example, while the Ref. 16570 remains more affordable. 

GMT-Master Models to Invest in: 

I agree with Bob's assessment that the vintage Ref. 16750 GMT-Master offers a similar look and feel to the more expensive Ref. 1675, often at a significantly lower price point. Additionally, the Ref. 16760 "COKE" with its black and red bezel, also known as the "Fat Lady," may be worth monitoring, as its limited production run of just a few years could make it a desirable option if Rolex reintroduces a retro model in 2024. 

Date Just Models to Invest in: 

While the Date Just is an iconic Rolex model, particularly popular in the 70s to 90s, I personally favor the Ref. 1601 with its pie-pan dial and acrylic crystal over the later Ref. 16013, Ref. 16233, and Ref. 116233 models. 

Day-Date President Models to Invest in: 

 The Rolex Day-Date, often referred to as the "President's Watch," is the brand's flagship line and a highly sought-after model. Gold Rolex watches have recently gained relative value on the secondary market, and the Ref. 1803 is a top choice, particularly those with unique dial variations, such as the "Stellar" dial or precious stone accents. An example of a Ref. 1803 in white gold with a "Tiffany Blue" Stellar dial could potentially fetch around HK$500,000 on the market. 

Recommended Rolex Models to Invest In: 

Date Models: Ref. 1503 Ref. 1507 Ref. 15037 Ref. 15238 I don't have a strong interest in Rolex Date models. 

Sea-Dweller Models: 

Ref. 1665, especially the rare "Double Red" variant, which is considered the best Sea-Dweller model, though now very expensive Ref. 16660 Ref. 16600 Ref. 116600 

Air-King Models: 

Ref. 5500 Ref. 14010 Ref. 114200 Ref. 114234 I don't collect Air-King watches as it is the most basic Rolex sport model. 

Ladies Rolex Models: 

Ref. 69173 Ref. 69138 Ref. 169622 I don't collect ladies' Rolex watches. 

The Most Important Rolex Model: 

The Daytona My Preferred Daytona Models: 

Ref. 116508 "Green John Mayer" in yellow gold, which I believe is one of the best investment pieces, having risen to over HK$1 million in 2022 and currently available around HK$600,000, a price I expect will increase rapidly 

Ref. 16528 (with either black or white dial) powered by the Zenith movement 

Ref. 16520 "A" or "U" series with a patinated dial 

 Ref.116520 with a creamy dial (found only on "P, K, Y" series models) 

While the iconic Paul Newman Daytona (Ref. 6241) is the "King of Daytonas", it is more of a collector's item than a daily wearer. 

The models I've recommended here all feature sapphire crystals and can be comfortably worn every day. 

You may ask how about Ice Blue Platinum, well if you have extra money and you don't mind the 286 gram of weight. Go for it. 

In summary, my Rolex preference ranking is: 

Daytona, Day-Date GMT Submariner Deep Sea Sea-Dweller Explorer Date-Just Oyster Perpetual, 1908/Cellini Yacht-Master Sky-Dweller Air-King Date Ladies' Date-Just 

 HK Snob

When Watch price will start rising up again?

Certainly, let me dive deeper into the potential future dynamics of the watch industry and market: The luxury watch sector faces a complex challenge in reconciling strong macroeconomic indicators with the public's more pessimistic sentiment toward the economy. 

This disconnect could significantly impact consumer spending, especially on high-end discretionary items like luxury watches. One key factor to watch will be how brands adapt their strategies to this shift in market conditions. 

Swiss watchmakers may need to reevaluate their retail network, potentially closing some underperforming boutiques and relying more on direct engagement with loyal customers. 

Selective discounting or promotional offers could also help broaden their customer base beyond the most affluent collectors. The middle-class watch buyers, who make up a significant portion of the market, may become increasingly cautious in their purchasing decisions. 

They may adopt a wait-and-see approach, holding off on purchases until they perceive prices starting to rise again. Brands will need to carefully monitor this segment and find ways to reignite their interest without devaluing their products. 

 The role of supply and demand will be crucial in determining the timing and trajectory of the market's recovery. If brands can strike the right balance - not overproducing, but making sought-after models readily available - they may be able to rekindle consumer enthusiasm. 

However, attempts at a "hunger sales" strategy could backfire if handled poorly. Beyond the global dynamics, the specific challenges facing the Hong Kong market are noteworthy. 

As a former top destination for Swiss watch exports, Hong Kong has seen a significant decline in luxury buyers, particularly mainland Chinese tourists. This has led to store closures in prime shopping areas, further exacerbating the industry's challenges in the region. 

The South Africa Rolex office had been running for 76 years are closed. Ultimately, the watch industry's path to regaining momentum by Summer 2025 will depend on its ability to navigate these complex and interrelated factors. 

Brands that can effectively adapt their strategies, engage with customers, and manage supply and demand may be better positioned to weather the current storm and emerge stronger in the years to come. 

HK Snob

讓我進一步探討手錶行業未來的動態與挑戰

一個關鍵因素是品牌如何調整策略以適應這種市場環境的轉變。

瑞士手錶製造商可能需要重新評估他們的零售網絡,關閉一些表現不佳的精品店,

勞力士剛剛關閉運作了七十六年南非辨工室了，而需要更多依賴與忠實客戶的直接互動。

選擇性的折扣或促銷優惠也可能有助於擴大他們的客戶群,而不僅局限於最富裕的收藏家。 

中低端手錶買家群體,佔據市場的重要份額,可能會在購買決策上變得更加謹慎。

他們可能會採取觀望態度,等待價格開始再次上升後再進行購買。

品牌需要密切關注這一細分市場,設法重新點燃他們的興趣,同時不會貶低產品價值。 

 供給與需求的平衡在決定市場復蘇的時間和軌跡上至關重要。

如果品牌能夠掌握好這一平衡 - 既不過度生產,又能確保熱門型號充足供應 - 他們或許能重燃消費者的熱情。然而,如果採取"餓賣"策略處理不當,也可能適得其反。 

 除了全球動態,香港市場面臨的特殊挑戰也值得關注。作為連續十年瑞士手錶最重要的出口目的地之一,香港已經看到奢侈品買家,特別是來自中國大陸的遊客,大幅減少。

這導致了主要購物區的商店關閉,進一步加劇了該行業在該地區的困難。 

 總的來說,手錶行業到2025年夏季重拾動力的道路,將取決於其調整策略、吸引客戶以及管控供需平衡的能力。那些能夠有效應對這些複雜而相互關聯因素的品牌,可能會更好地渡過當前的風暴,並在未來幾年中強勢崛起.

The 2024 Swiss Watch Market: An Analysis of Trends and Strategies

Introduction:

Against the backdrop of the esteemed Watches and Wonders 2024 event, concerns arise regarding the decline in Swiss watch exports in March. The value of exports fell by 16.1% compared to March 2023, amounting to a total of 2.0 billion francs. This decline was primarily driven by reduced demand from China and Hong Kong, major trading hubs for watches in Asia. Overall, the first quarter experienced a 6.3% decrease compared to the previous year. 

Sales Performance by Price Segments: 

The decline in exports was observed across all price segments. Watches priced at over 3,000 francs experienced a decline of 9.9%. The drop was more significant for products priced under 500 francs, with a decrease of 18.8%. The 500-3,000 francs category witnessed a decline of 38.2%. 

Market Performance by Region: 

Most markets experienced weakened demand in March. Notably, the United States (-6.5%), Japan (-3.5%), and the United Arab Emirates (-3.6%) were less affected compared to the average decline. Conversely, China suffered a significant decline of 41.5%, reaching a level below that of March 2020 when the industry faced a halt due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Hong Kong (-44.2%), Singapore (-14.8%), the United Kingdom (-13.2%), Germany (-13.1%), and France (-11.9%) were closer to the global average. 

Historical Perspective: Swiss Watchmaking Over the Past 50 Years:

The Swiss watchmaking industry has undergone significant transformations over the past five decades. One pivotal event was the Quartz watch crisis of 1970. Exports reached their peak in 1974 at 84.4 million watches and movements but plummeted to just 31.3 million within a decade. This crisis led to a divergence in the industry, with the emergence of everyday watches like Swatch and the luxury segment.

Brand Identity and Market Share:

Swiss watches are categorized into super luxury, luxury, hi-end, and mid-range streams. Brand identity plays a crucial role in building brand value. Top players such as Richard Mille, with watches worth CHF 200,000, manufacture only a few thousand pieces annually. In contrast, Swatch produces millions of watches each year. As of 2023, Rolex dominates the market with a 30.3% market share, followed by Cartier 7.5%, Omega 7.5%, Patek Philippe 5.6%, and Audemars Piguet, among others.

Market Growth and Strategies:

The Swiss watch market has experienced both growth and contraction simultaneously. While volumes have decreased by almost 45% since 2015, the value of high-end watches priced over CHF 3,000 has surged by 15.6% in the past year. This trend signifies a shift towards higher-priced luxury timepieces. The industry's focus on producing fewer watches at higher prices reflects a protectionist approach aimed at boosting demand.

 Future Outlook:

The market's trajectory for the next decade will be shaped by distinct strategies related to brand identity, average selling price (ASP), value proposition, and sales approaches. While hunger sales may be utilized to stimulate demand, it is crucial to note that watches are not considered investment assets. The luxury watch industry is adapting to the digital age, with younger generations showing greater interest in wearable technology rather than traditional mechanical timepieces. However, the market remains strong, with major players reporting impressive growth.

 Conclusion:

In conclusion, the Swiss watch market is undergoing dynamic changes. The industry has transitioned towards producing fewer watches of higher value, focusing on rarity, exclusivity, and storytelling. Younger consumers are gravitating towards digital wearables, while the 30-50 age group still appreciates Swiss mechanical watches as indicators of social status. Vintage watch enthusiasts continue to cherish the craftsmanship of fine mechanical timepieces. It is essential for watch enthusiasts to buy and enjoy timepieces they personally appreciate, while recognizing the unique stories and value associated with rare and special watches.

HK Snob

Watch Business update in Hong Kong

Watch Business Update - May 2024 

In recent times, the gold price has reached a historical high, standing at HK$26,500 per tael. During my visit to Chow Tai Fok yesterday to purchase gifts for Mother's Day, I was struck by the soaring price of gold. Such high gold prices indicate a lack of trust in traditional currencies, leading individuals to invest in precious metals, with gold being the top choice. 

The ongoing conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine show no signs of resolution. Consequently, we anticipate that people will exercise caution when it comes to investing in luxury goods. Despite the fact that the wealthiest 1% of US citizens possess 30% of the country's wealth, it is uncertain whether this group will entirely divert their funds towards the watch business. Middle-class individuals, including managers, executives, investment bankers, IT professionals, businessmen, hotel managers, pilots, lawyers, and more, comprise the genuine supporters of the watch industry. Although not part of the super-rich class, Hong Kong residents are increasingly crossing the border to Shenzhen for weekend getaways, indicating a decrease in their willingness to invest as heavily as they did two years ago.

Comparing the current prices to those of May 2022, Rolex has experienced an average drop of 30%, Patek Philippe has dropped by 25% on average, and Audemars Piguet has experienced a 40% decrease. Vacheron Constantin is now offering its VIP customers the opportunity to purchase the new 222 model at the manufacturer's suggested retail price (MSRP), which was not possible in 2023. However, there have been few actual transactions for used Rolex watches among the 500 dealers in Hong Kong. It remains unclear whether prices have reached their lowest point, but it is expected that they will fluctuate in a U-shaped pattern before potentially rising again, particularly towards the end of the year following the replacement of US President Biden with Trump. 

Considering the current market conditions, it is advisable to invest in gold watches rather than stainless steel models, as the former holds greater value. Personally, I have ceased purchasing steel watches and shifted my focus towards high-quality gold timepieces. 

It is worth noting that the attached picture depicts TST 1881, where luxury shops such as JLC, Roger Dubuis, IWC, Cartier, Vacheron Constantin, and Panerai were present two years ago. However, at present, these establishments remain closed.

Thank you for reading. 

HK Snob

Rolex new watches highlight 2024

 Rolex 2024

I can’t rule out the affection of Rolex fans as Rolex takes up 50% of Swiss watch export revenues in 2023. Rolex’s new watch will be the focus of many of us.

Rolex has added a new stainless steel GMT-Master II to the lineup. Featuring the same split-color black and gray bezel, the new Rolex GMT-Master II 126710GRNR pairs its updated bezel with the green GMT hand and green dial text as the black and green left-handed GMT-Master II that debuted in 2022. Just like the rest of the models from the current GMT-Master II lineup, this new GMT-Master II 126710GRNR is powered by the Caliber 3285 automatic GMT movement, which features the brand’s Chronergy escapement and runs at a frequency of 28,800vph (4 Hz) with a power reserve of approximately 70 hours. Additionally, just like the other stainless steel models, this new GMT-Master II 126710GRNR is available with either the brand’s three-link Oyster or five-link Jubilee bracelets, and both versions are completed by Rolex’s Oysterlock clasp with the brand’s Easylink comfort extension system.

Rolex Deepsea in 18KT Yellow gold

Quite to my unexpected, for 2024, Rolex introduced a solid gold dive watch rated to 3900m. And never mind that you can wear a watch that deep into the deep sea with ease — this watch is about status, pure and simple. The new Rolex Deepsea 136668LB is big and stupid.

A 322g, solid 18k Deepsea on a solid 18k gold bracelet is contradictory to much of what we’ve seen from Rolex in the past. It is a 44m-wide, 17.7mm-thick gold watch.   And the bright blue ceramic Cerachrom bezel shines and matches as on the gold case. Put the gold and blue together with the weight and all you can think of this is a showy piece but not for you to wear everyday. May not be comfortable for me to wear. May be someone’s else.

Rolex Perpetual 1908 in Platinum “Ice Blue”

This is top-of-the-line Rolex dress watch, and I think many people like this watch more than the about GMT and Deepsea. Rolex has followed up with the Perpetual 1908 in platinum (ref. 52506) with an “ice blue” guilloché dial. It is done the traditional way with a hand-operated machine, the guilloché dial gives the watch an entirely different character. The striking pale blue is also more modern.

It is 39 mm wide and 9.5 mm, it is clean, well made, thin, appealing bright hue of the Ice Blue dial with a balance of denser weight of Platinum case, In its original form, the 1908 had excellent proportions for a modern-day dress watch in right proportion with size and thickness, overall is first grade Rolex watch.  At for US$31,000, a reasonable premium that is less than many brands levy for the metal. Just my personal comment, a brawn Croco strap isn't the best colour match for such a modern Rolex?

How do you like it? And I believe this is easier to get than the GMT Master II.

HK Snob

2024 Resolution

Reflecting on the year 2023, it has been a challenging period, particularly when compared to the relatively prosperous year of 2022. The prices of properties and luxury goods have plummeted, and the HS index has hit a low point of 16000, indicating a bearish market. With just five hours remaining, 2023 is about to become a part of history.

Contemplating my actions throughout the year, I can't help but feel the passage of time accelerating as I grow older. In the second quarter, I set a personal goal to achieve 100 consecutive flip hand push-ups by December 31, 2023. While my personal best stands at 50 repetitions, reaching halfway to my target, I recognize the inherent limitations of the human body. Completing 50 push-ups in one go is a source of great satisfaction, especially considering that there are likely fewer than 5000 individuals worldwide, particularly men over 60, who can accomplish this feat. In 2024, I will continue to explore different methods to further improve my performance.

Maintaining intermittent fasting has been a remarkable achievement, enabling me to sustain a weight range of 129-131 pounds. I am grateful for the vitality it has bestowed upon me and the absence of any medication requirements.

My venture into Wing Chun Kung Fu has instilled me with newfound confidence in handling both work and personal interactions. I am determined to continue my practice.

In terms of my watch collection, I recently acquired an Audemars Piguet Platinum square skeleton manual winding watch, becoming the fifth piece in my Audemars Piguet collection. Looking ahead to 2030, I hope these timepieces will appreciate in value and potentially be sold for $3 million.

Within my family life, I find immense joy in the relationships I share with my daughters and their mothers. They are my angels, and I hold no regrets. My love extends to their mothers as well.

As we approach the dawning of 2024, my sincere wish is for a year free from conflict and strife. May we all enjoy good health and happiness throughout the year.

Regarding my job, I aspire to forge stronger relationships with my customers, assisting them in attaining profitable outcomes, as this is an integral aspect of my professional responsibilities.

Happy new year!

HK Snob

The Market for Luxury Watches in Hong Kong: Analysis and Forecast

Introduction:

The market for luxury watches in Hong Kong has garnered significant attention, with many individuals inquiring about its current status and future prospects. In this essay, we will delve into the dynamics of the market, focusing on notable brands and their price trends. Additionally, we will provide insights into the potential forecast for 2024, taking into account global geopolitical factors and their potential impact on the luxury watch industry.

Current Market Overview:

Currently, the market for luxury watches in Hong Kong is characterized by a lack of transparency in terms of real transactions. Although dealer groups provide trade quotes, genuine transactions are scarce. Rolex authorized dealers (AD) possess limited stock, primarily available to select customers at suggested retail prices (SRP). Moreover, the secondary market for Rolex watches, particularly models like Daytona, GMT Master, and Submariners, has demonstrated relative stability in terms of pricing.

Luxury Brands and Price Trends:

Among the luxury brands, Audemars Piguet has experienced the most significant impact on prices. Hot items such as the Royal Oak have reportedly seen a decline of around 40% in market price. On the other hand, Vacheron Constantin, despite not being in highest demand, has managed to secure some of the sought-after models at prices drops from 30%, a notable decrease from 50-60% of AP comparing with price of 2022. Consequently, the current market presents an opportune time for potential buyers to consider acquiring hot models at comparatively lower prices.

Forecast for 2024:

When looking ahead to 2024, it is vital to consider the global geopolitical landscape and its potential influence on the luxury watch market. Ongoing conflicts, such as the US-RU-UK and IS-PA wars, are crucial factors to monitor. Notably, there are indications that US Republicans may reject any financial support for the UK President, potentially leading to the end of the RU-UK war by Q1 2024. If this occurs, global attention will likely shift to the Middle East region, where growing numbers of individuals feel disconnected from Israeli interests and may advocate for an end to the conflicts. However, the resolution of these conflicts ultimately depends on the actions of the United States.

Assuming the wars in the Middle East do reach resolution in 2024, it is expected that the world economy will experience a surge in positive energy, thereby fostering growth across various sectors. In the luxury watch market, this renewed economic vigor may lead to increased demand and subsequently higher prices by Q2 2024. It is crucial to note that these forecasts are subject to change and should be monitored closely.

Today's Sample Watch Prices:

To provide a glimpse into the current market, here are some estimated prices for popular watch models in Hong Kong:

Rolex GMT Master Pepsi Jubilee: HK$150,000

Rolex Daytona 2023 126500LN: HK$265,000

Rolex Daytona 116500LN (White): HK$220,000

Rolex Submariner 126610LN: HK$110,000

Audemars Piguet Royal Oak Blue 16202ST: HK$650,000

Audemars Piguet Royal Oak Blue 15202ST: HK$500,000 (discontinued model)

Vacheron Constantin Overseas 4605V/200R-B978 (35mm, pink gold): HK$465,000

Vacheron Constantin FiftySix 4600E/000R-B441 (40mm, pink gold, automatic): HK$210,000

Patek Philippe 5711 (Steel): HK$500,000

Conclusion:

In conclusion, the luxury watch market in Hong Kong offers opportunities for both seasoned collectors and individuals seeking good value. It is essential not to be swayed solely by a brand's image and hype, as there are many well-priced watches available. Ultimately, the true value of a watch lies in wearing and enjoying it, rather than keeping it stored away. As the market continues to evolve, staying informed about current trends and developments will be vital for making informed purchasing decisions.

HK Snob

Disclaimer: Please note that the prices provided are rough estimations, as they fluctuate daily, and variations may exist between different dealers.

HK Snob goes Youtuber

 Hi ALL

Pls subscribe my new YouTube channel " HK Snob" 

there are Watch, Audio, martial arts and many other topic.

HK Snob

HK Snob goes Youtube

Hi All friends, collogues, ASMPT business partners in overseas and China, please subscribe my new YouTube channels by "HK Snob" it has been established over two weeks and thanks for the support it has over 80,000 views. Your subscripting, share and comment is best to encourage me to put up more interesting topics.... Topics will cover Semiconductor process and the assembly equipment, hobbies on vintage Audio, local food in Hong Kong, Watch collection, Calligraphy, Wing Chun Kung Fu. Up-coming post will be about "Space Audio" that is a HK base audio company established since 1998 and the shop was appearing in the famous Hong Kong movie “Internal Affairs” (or "Mou gaan dou" in Cantonese) in 2002 with Andy Lau and Tong Leung. Audio Space later changed his brand new to Space Audio with the founder passed away in 2022. Before they are moved to new area to continue their audio business, we are luckily been selected to film it with interviews with the two owners of the shop, it is under editing and soon will be posted….

HK Snob