Market price of luxury watch at Q3 2023

After an unprecedented surge in 2021 and 2022, the pre-owned luxury watch industry is going through a rapid decline as watch dealers and investors flood the market with supply.

Prices for the once highly sought-after Rolex Daytona, Patek Nautilus and Audemars Piguet Royal Oak models have all dropped 30% to 35%

Watch values have been hit by slowing economic growth, US Proxy war at Ukarine, Taiwan straits tension created by the western Government, stupid sanctions to China on Semiconductor chips, higher interest rates and the collapse of cryptocurrencies.

In recent months, watch dealers and investors have flooded the market with supply of once-sought-after Rolex Daytona, Patek Nautilus and Audemars Piguet Royal Oak models, leading to a 24 per cent decline in a luxury watch market index.

Typical model price of Mar 2022 and 2023 are listed here.

Patek 5711/1a $1.2M / $840,000

Audemars Piguet Royal Oak discon. 15202 ST $1.3M / $650K

Rolex 116610LN NOS Year 2020 $120K /$ 90K 

Daytona 116100LN White $430K /$230K 

Daytona 116520 White A series $240K / $190K

Vacheron Constantin Overseas 5500V/110A  Blue $330K  / $280K

Now I am sure the price is still not the bottom, the richer is always be the more richer as they have

Money to buy now.

Now we see the cheaper watches $<80K are moving fast, while the more expensive one such as higher $150K are slow movers.

Remarks

Price is for reference only, in HKD

HK Snob

 

Buying bahaviour of HKers

 There are many reasons why a buyer may choose not to make a purchase, and some common excuses that buyers may give include:

1. Price: The buyer may feel that the price of the product or service is too high, or they may not see the value in what they are being asked to pay.  70% of the cases.

2. Need: The buyer may not feel that they need the product or service, or they may feel that they can get by without it. 5%

3. Timing: The buyer may not be ready to make a purchase at this time, or they may be waiting for a better deal or promotion. 5%

4. Trust: The buyer may not trust the seller or the product, or they may have had a bad experience with a similar product or service in the past. 10%

5. Competition: The buyer may be considering other options or may have found a better deal elsewhere. 10%

6. Decision-making: The buyer may be indecisive or unsure about what they want, or they may need more information before making a decision. 5%

7. Logistics: The buyer may have logistical concerns, such as shipping or delivery issues, or they may not be able to find the product or service they are looking for in their area. 5%

It's important to note that these excuses are not always the real reasons why a buyer chooses not to make a purchase, and it's up to the seller to try to understand the buyer's needs and address any concerns they may have.

Here are the most common reasons your buyer goes radio silent: They've made a decision but they're on their own timeline. Whether they're going with you or a competitor, or are going to put off the purchase, your customer has made an informal decision, they just don't have to BUY right at this moment.

And most of all, I dislike Radio Silence, juts say I don’t buy now, or I pass, or I will not consider it now… is OK

HK Snob

Tiffany Blue Watch ref 73/15 diver watch

 

Tiffany & Co. has consistently exceeded expectations with phenomenal products, and there is no exception for this watch, which looks very similar to the Rolex Sub-Mariner style. This unique piece is incredibly rare and is very rarely found available in the market today. This beautiful timepiece features a Stainless Steel case that measures approximately 39mm (case excluding crown) x 8mm (high). The case is topped with a superb blue red rotating diving bezel. Behind the crystal is a matching blue dial with silver tone luminescent hour markers, matching hands, and a date feature located at 3 o'clock, in a style that is very similar to the Rolex Submariner. This ETA Calibre 995 Quartz powered watch also has a solid Stainless Steel water proof screw back case. The watch is complete with its original Tiffany & Co. warranty papers, roll box, and pouch. Dated 1992 in Japan. Look at the patina Lume is so beautiful with matching hand colour. As you now know, in today’s market, it is virtually impossible to come by this vintage timepiece in Brand New condition such as this one. If you are looking for an incredibly rare and durable timepiece that isn't as heavy as a traditional diver's watch, this classic and sophisticated watch is an absolute necessity addition to my collection!

Burgundy is selling US$10,000, Black is selling US$7,956, What do you think the value of blue is?

HK Snob

Luxury Watch market changes

 The luxury watch market is constantly evolving, and trends come and go. While vintage Rolex watches were popular since 2005 till 2025, there has been a recent trend towards gold Rolex watches and even gold watches with diamond accents. These watches have become increasingly popular among collectors and enthusiasts who want to make a bold statement with their timepieces. However, it's important to note that preferences in the luxury watch market can vary depending on the region, cultural influences, global gold price, hype from the celebrities and movies stars and individual tastes.

While vintage Rolex watches have always been highly sought after, the trend has shifted towards newer models that feature more eye-catching designs and embellishments. It's possible that some people may have grown tired of stainless steel sports watches like Rolex for more than a decade, and are looking for something different and more luxurious For example, the Rolex Daytona with a diamond-encrusted bezel has become increasingly popular among collectors, as has the Rolex GMT Master II with its unique combination of meteorite and or with gold and diamonds.

In addition to Rolex, other luxury watch brands such as Patek Philippe, Audemars Piguet, and Richard Mille have also seen a surge in popularity in recent years. These brands offer a range of watches that cater to different tastes and preferences, from classic and understated to bold and extravagant.

Ultimately, the choice of watch is a matter of personal preference and style. Some people may prefer the understated elegance of a steel sports watch, while others may prefer the bold and luxurious look of a gold and diamond watch. What's important is finding a watch that suits your tastes and meets your needs, whether that's for everyday wear or special occasions.

Notable trend is that there are having less people is focusing on buying those vintage Rolex as I had mentioned before, there was a lot of price difference say on Mark I of Rolex GMT Master 1675 than Mark II or III, well, nowadays there seems less concern about this so far people can recognize that is a 1675 GMT would be accepted, of course more demanding collector will still look for rarer Mark I.

In short the vintage Rolex price is not synchronized with the price up as the new Rolex.

That is quite pathetic , Recently we have seem a Daytona Zenith 16520 A series white is selling $170K , I think this was $220K in 2022. Also we can see a floating line Daytona 16520 Black is now $330K, that is much cheaper than 2021.

So if you are keen on buying good stuff, this is the time.

Those Daytona are never out of fashion! Especially with gold and diamond, they are good to buy now.

HK Snob

$ here is HKD

Quiet Luxury

Quiet luxury is a fashion and lifestyle that emphasizes understated, high-end quality and design. They do not buy logos or branding to show off its status. Quiet luxury emphasizes subtle details, fine precious materials, iconic design, everlasting value, and impeccable craftsmanship, with the goal of creating a sense of effortless elegance and sophistication. It's often associated with minimalist or timeless styles, and can be seen as a reaction against the excess and conspicuous consumption that have been associated with traditional luxury. Overall, quiet luxury is about a refined and discerning taste that values quality and craftsmanship over showiness or status symbols. For watches, more collectors have been gone through all the long and winding road in pursuit of their early watches, they come to one state that there is no competition of how many pieces, but a handful of iconic pieces could be creating a “WOW!” to the eyes of others. 

Their target is something nice, delicate, coming with a history or story, not necessarily an skin deep diamond watch. On the contrary, an ordinary watch in outlook but carrying a touching story, not a steel diver watch, not a simple GMT dual time. Not a Rolex Submariner 116610LN that has been produced over 420,000 pieces, nor anything that you can buy at your AD. 

Size need not to be as big as one can’t wear or too small that can’t read the time, dial should be the main theme of the watch one can tell that is special, unique, a Skeleton watch, a Salmon dial, or Grey dial. Guilloche, tapisserie, white enamel dial, or a beautifully patina on the dial and lume. 

Switzerland has a long history of producing high-quality watches, dating back to the 16th century. Swiss watchmakers have a reputation for precision, craftsmanship, and innovation, and many of the most famous and respected watch brands in the world are based in Switzerland.

The older Swiss watch brands often use high-quality materials and movements that are designed to last for decades or even centuries. These watches are often made with precious metals, such as gold or platinum, and feature complex mechanical movements that are hand-assembled and finished by skilled craftsmen. Because of their exceptional quality and durability, Swiss watches often hold their value better than other types of watches.

As a result, they can command high prices on the vintage and collector's market, making them a valuable investment for those who appreciate fine craftsmanship and exclusivity. They are Patek Philppe, Vacheron Constantin, Audemars Piguet, Breguet, Girard-Perregaux, Jaeger Le Coutle. Newer comers like Panerai, A Lange and Sohn, FPJ, and Rolex.

The Vintage watches have been losing their glory over the last 5 years mainly because they are already over priced and hard to authenticate the watch, more people are going to switch their focus on neo-vintage watch, such as sapphire crystal Rolex, which are less tricky and less chance to be frankenwatch.

So What I am looking for is something I like, I can wear, affordable by myself, preferably with these Brands, precious metals is the prime consideration, Limited edition, size can be 33-39mm for my wrist.

Integrated bracelet sport watch with steel, dress watch with a Class, or some complications such as perpetual Calendar or Tourbillon. 

My Special focus is Laureato 8010, 36 mm, 1995 release date. A few hundred produced and the first mechanical Laureato, Laureato Olimpico Chronograph 8017, 40 mm,  1996. 999 pieces made. The first Laureato Chronograph. Marked the end of the Olimpico line in conjunction with the 1996 Atlanta Olympics. Vacheron 222 totally 500 made, Patek Nautilus 3700,  3800J only 5 pieces made, 3800G 50 pieces made, Audemars 5402 A series, Panerai Pre Vendome series, Rolex 16520 white enamel dial, or 16520 P K Y Creamy dial.

Last but not least, searching your ideal watch is the most interesting part of whole watch collection journey. Do you agree? Do share your idea with me at hksnob@yahoo.com.hk.

HK Snob

Luxury watch trend in next 5 years 2024-2028

 We all know it's difficult to predict with certainty what the exact trends in the high-end luxury watch market will be over the next five to ten years, as consumer preferences can be influenced by a variety of factors such as fashion, technology, celebrities’ preference, watch maker influence, and cultural shifts. However, based on current trends and market indicators, there are a few predictions that can be made.

One trend that may continue to gain popularity is the customization of luxury watches. Some high-end watch brands offer customers the ability to customize their watches with different materials, colors, and finishes, and this trend may continue to expand over the next few years. Typical example is Rolex Day Date “puzzle” at W & W premiere 2023 that will be having MSRP $0.5M, I can say the market price will be not less than $1.5m.

In terms of price trends, it's difficult to predict with certainty how prices will change over the next five years. However, based on historical trends, it's likely that prices for high-end luxury watches will continue to rise over time. Remember the price of watch was low in 2011 and starting 2012 price started to move up till 2022, that is ten years cycle, I strongly believe by end of 2023 watch price will start to move up. Now we all know Rolex price is moving at its lowest range after the highest price record in 2021, at that time a Daytona White ceramic 116500 was about $450,000. Now it is about $290,000.  A Submariner 116610LN New was selling $120,000 in Nov 2021, now probably we can get one two years watch NOS at $95000, that is a 24% price drop.

Athletes, movie stars, and singers can have a significant influence on watch trends, as they often serve as brand ambassadors or are seen wearing certain watches in public. Based on current trends and market indicators, there are a few indications of which watch brands and styles may be popular among these influencers in 2023. Brad Pitt worn a Vacheron Constantin “222”, a 37mm solid yellow gold watch in 2022.

One indication is the continued popularity of sport watches among athletes and other active individuals. This may include watches with fitness tracking capabilities, durable materials, and other features that cater to an active lifestyle.

Another indication is the growing interest in vintage and retro-inspired watches. Many high-end watch brands are releasing new models that pay homage to classic designs from the past, the 2023 retro of ingenieur of IWC,  Vacheron Constantin 222 in yellow gold. and these watches may appeal to movie stars and other celebrities who value timeless style and sophistication.

In terms of watch brands, Rolex, Patek Philippe, and Audemars Piguet are all popular among athletes, movie stars, and singers, and may continue to be in 2023. Other brands that may gain popularity among these influencers include Hublot, Richard Mille, and Omega.

Ultimately, the influence of athletes, movie stars, and singers on watch trends can be difficult to predict, as their preferences can be influenced by a variety of factors such as personal style, brand partnerships, and cultural trends. However, by staying attuned to the brands and styles favored by these influencers, watch enthusiasts can gain insight into the broader trends shaping the high-end watch market.

I always think that there have been a lot of gatherings in Switzerland from the big watch makers to lay down some road map on what should they do in creating new watches in the coming years.

John Mayer’s gold watch such as Rolex Submariner in gold, Daytona green dial 116508, Daytona Paul Ip 6263. Meaning certain Daytona would be a good watch to be worn by the singers. It is a good value keeper as a watch. Week End debuted to uneven reviews at Cannes yesterday, where the singer continued one of the most sensible horological trends of 2023. Size has been changed from 40-42 reduction to 36-39mm since 2018 until now. Even some men wearing Cartier Crash which I presume that is a smaller watch. More thin that how lady watch. Yes, The Week End’s stunning gem-set Piaget, the Limelight Gala High Jewelry Watch, was technically designed for—and marketed to—women. “More than a women's luxury watch…” reads a bit of copy on Piaget’s site. Can you recall that there is a lot of persons were wearing lady watch back in 1985? What is next?

Conclusion

Watch price will become stable and start to rise by end of 2023

Watch size continue to be smaller in diameter 36-39mm

Gold as a watch material is getting popular

More peoples will go for dress watch of course the ratio will not be as high as comparing with steel sport watch.

Lady watch as a new trend yet to be a norm as in 1986 for male celebrity, need to be observed more.

HK Snob

Price here in HKD,  1 USD$ = 7,8 HKD

Aftermath of recent Vacheron Constantin 222 auction

 After the recent auction of a Vacheron Constantin 222 white gold hit at a stunning price of HK$5M.

I guess that at the marketing and sales discussion at Vacheron Constantin headquarters, there may be having a topics is whether they are going to produce a White Gold Retro version of 222 Jumbo.

As I know many watch collectors are quite prefer a White Gold than a yellow Gold version of a sportive 222. So they even can make a more aggressive MSRP for the White gold version.

Lets watch out.

Next is the model Overseas Generation One 42042 with a case diameter of 37mm There are a few beautiful dial on the first generation Overseas, such as Salmon, blue and white. Will there be a possibility for Vacheron Constantin to make another line of new watches with the classy design of an Overseas series?

To me 50/50. lets see.

I have a White dial, Blue dial 42042 and a Salmon Dial 42052 35 mm version.

I have never owned a wonderful 42042 Salmon 37mm version so far.

HK Snob

Watch Price 2023 Q2 update, still bad

 All watch trade activities have been softened a lot comparing with the same time in 2022.

Roughly speaking we seemed to have a false hope that watch price risen a bit after March 2023 when the more visitors are encouraged to Hong Kong,  but after observing for two months. That is proven a false hope.

Rolex buyers are not as aggressive on buying as they tend to look for lower offers in the market. 

Even they confirm to buy today, they shall be gone on Tomorrow.

Audemars Piguet price drops 40% comparing with May 2021, and 30% comparing with May 2022.

Patek price also dropping a lot like 25-40% depending on models.

Reason behind is the global economy is bad, after the US Silicon Valley bank, the Signature Bank and the first republic band closure... there is a lot of monetary movement from the Western banks to other chosen  banks for higher security level, Swiss Credit bank was in big trouble too.

Looking forward

Speculating, But this is the best time for people who are keen at search for those watches they like, they may get a better price.

HK Snob

All it takes is Knowledge, capital and guts to buy vintage collectible watch

This is a very interesting story of a rare Vacheron Constantin 222 watch.

5 months ago there is watch show held in Hong Kong, friend of mine spotted a beautiful Vacheron Constantin 222 from a western dealer, he was asking certain price which is about HK$480000, he was trying to think if this is real stuff from Vacheron Constantin as this is made of white gold. Googles did to help to tell, well if a stainless steel he could have bought is as there are known certain 100 pieces of steel and in yellow gold Jumbo 222. But this is white gold... he finally dropped down the watch, another anxiously waiting friend of mine grabbed it instantly and asking for final price, he bought it on the next day.

I had such a great honor to wear this piece of watch myself at from him. Heavy like 180 grams, beautifully made, also clean cases as it was fresh from factory... I have a yellow gold 222 but it was my first time seeing a white gold.... well, this watch was auction with HK$5M as shown here.

Moral of the story is all it takes is knowledge, capital and most important one is guts... do you dare to buy if there is even no information on a watch available on Google....

He bought it.... a man of knowledge, capital and GUTS. Of course you have to spend time focusing on sourcing it. That is a great fun if you can find a watch you like.

Congratulations! 

HK Snob

 

Don't expect there is no fake Rolex bought from Pawn Shop in Hong Kong

 If a Hong Kong pawn shop buys a fake Rolex watch unknowingly, they may not be held legally liable for selling counterfeit goods, as long as they can demonstrate that they had no reason to suspect that the watch was fake. 

However, if a pawn shop knowingly purchases and resells counterfeit goods, they could face legal consequences, including fines and even imprisonment. It's important to note that buying and selling counterfeit goods is illegal in Hong Kong, and the authorities take this issue very seriously. Therefore, it is in the best interest of pawn shops to take all necessary precautions to ensure that they do not purchase or sell counterfeit goods, including Rolex watches.

As far as I know some Pawn shops mistakenly bought in some fake Rolex, they will sell out at Rolex price, of course I can't disclose which Pawn shops here, well, if you go for buying Rolex from Pawn shops, you should prepare to have chance that some of them may be fake! Always go to larger older pawn shops as they are supposed to have more experinece to tell, however there are still escapees!

Best way is to authenticate them at A7, CWR or Rolex Service centre if you have suspicions. Normally A7 or CWR charges HKD$800 per watch for authentication.

HK Snob

買錶注意

 最近日都連續發生幾單嘢都係喺網上買錶出事，一個就你美孚地鐵站內俾人搶咗一隻十萬元的勞力士錶。另外我有個朋友隻Batman差唔多俾人騙去，咁其實我哋有啲嘢要注意啊。

第一吾還價嗰啲要小心。

第二開咗個Account幾日嗰啲或者係完全冇評價嗰啲小心。

第三，香港人買錶超過五萬蚊都問三代.問長問短啦又要影相又乜。唔問嘅你反而要小心囉。

第四通常我哋要去銀行嘅lobby 或者五星酒店嘅lobby有CCTV 照住個地方才交易。

第六或者係餐廳嘅角落。

第七，要遠離門口

第八，你一個人，人哋二三個你份外要留神，除非你隻錶好貴人哋唔會幾個人一齊嚟睇㗎。

第九。太貴重的手表，找多個人幫手。

第十，有些少唔對板就終止交易！

第十一亦都係最重要，找我地團隊幫手睇場，或到我地港九聯營店內交收，驗表。收費無幾，買得開心。

HK Snob

Watch buyers of general Hong Kong

 

What do you think most of the general Hong Kong people concerns on buying watches?

1. Price

2. Price

3. What's they are buying?

4. Who they are buying from?

You know what I am talking about.

Smart buyers consider:-

1. What is buying?

2. Who is buying from?

3. What is the price?

Smart buyers are usually experienced watch collectors, expert and watch gurus, they are buying watches they like rather than those watch in hype. Smart buyer may not be a Rolex fan, of course there are exceptional, as some are good Rolex worth our buying, but not those new one recently made within 2020-2023. Exceptional items such as GMT White gold 116719 Meteorite, Daytona Meteorite, may be a first edition Pepsi Jubilee 116710BLRO Blossom red bezel. 

After ten years smart buyer' watches may appreciate 80% of the value they bought. That could make a big difference. 

Another guy i know he is keen on buying Cartier Crash, he may have 6 pieces from Pink Gold, white gold and yellow gold with diamond from $200,000 to $400,000 he nought between 2010-2022.

How all they watches have been appreciated 250% as an average, that is a great deal!

Well, to me, I keep on buying from friend who likes to sell me as I promise of one day I sell the watch, I will ask him first... this is an important commitment to the seller and that is most of them like to sell me.

HK Snob 

Real and Fake Rolex Box

 There are several differences between a real and a fake Rolex box that you can look for:

1. Quality: A genuine Rolex box is made with high-quality materials and has a solid and sturdy feel. In contrast, a fake Rolex box may feel flimsy and cheaply made.

2. Logo: The Rolex logo on a genuine box is typically crisp, clear, and well-defined. On a fake box, the logo may be blurry or poorly defined. check the gold logo, the real Rolex logo sits flat on the box, the fake one may have gap between the logo and the box.

3. Color: The colors on a genuine Rolex box are usually consistent and vibrant. On a fake box, the colors may be faded, lighter or appear different from the genuine colors.

4. Text: The text on a genuine Rolex box is typically clear and easy to read. On a fake box, the text may be blurry or difficult to read. 

5. A Real Rolex box has a flat and straight seam on the paper folding line. 

6. A real Rolex box should always come with white paper sleeve.

It's important to note that counterfeiters are constantly improving their methods, so some fake Rolex boxes may be difficult to distinguish from the genuine article. If you have any doubts about the authenticity of a Rolex box, it's best to consult with a professional appraiser or jeweler.

HK Snob

Remarks 

Right one is real Box 

Fake Rolex boxes

There are two of HK watch dealers told me yesterday that there are fake Rolex boxes flooded in the HK market.

So you should take note, as even a watch dealer could buy some of the fake boxes from dealers or his suppliers.

The fake box and authentic box are quite similar but come to hands of expert like I, can tell the difference.

Now we have only two size of Rolex Box the M and L, no more S size.

Currently the real stuff M box is selling between dealers from HK$1200-1300 whereas I heard that the fake one is HK$700 only. The price of the real box reaching hands of end user is about HK$1500.

Next time, pay attention on the watch you buy and also the box, if the box is fake, check 2X more on your watch. 

Wish you had a good buy from trustworthy dealers.

Check my other post on how to tell the good and fake Rolex box.

HK Snob

2023 Rolex OP Bubble is available in Hong Kong!

After two weeks of W&W, Rolex had announced this bubble oyster perpetual, we have seen this watch in Hong Kong already. Surprise?  I don't know if bubble is the right word to describe this watch.

No, when you check carefully you know, I think some people had taken a HD picture on the Rolex watch at the show, and immediately copy the colour scheme and design, fabricated this kind of dial.

Well, this is another reason I don't like buying this kind of  watch, there is minimum horological effort. This year they launch a bubble and next year they can launch Kubrick, and what you wear is just a gimmick of Rolex, the long-term value may not be much.

Like the tiffany blue OP two years ago, they are already losing their popularity and glory.

HK Snob

Insider information that Rolex would not like you to know

Rolex occupies one third of the Swiss watch market, being top player amongst all major luxury watches for the last ten years. Still Rolex's latest strategy is to take up preowned watch market by offering CPO service, likely will happen in Hong Kong in 2023. 

There are many friends coming from China recently called me asking why they can't buy Rolex, he said Sport models are understandable, but even Day Date and Date Just is not available at Rolex boutique.

Well, Rolex treats their authored dealers (AD) as their customers, the end users are not Rolex customer at all.

Rolex cares about the performance of their ADs commitment and controlling their ADs. 

Being AD, they have to keep sales  quota to Rolex in order to keep their dealership.

If you have no purchase history at the AD, you go to AD asking GMT Master or Daytona, their staff will say that asking you to leave contact and once they have it, they will call you! This is a way to make you feel better only as they don't want to see you anymore at all. After you left, most of the contact will be destroyed. This is very different with Patek, they really record your contact submit to the Local office GM to evaluate of giving you the watch or not.

Senior Manager or director is connected to trustable dealer, they used to sell dealers by batches at back door with sport model and least popular models at price they feel good with each other. The dealer then sells at a calculated price they can sell fast and with profit. As many end user tends to buy fresh Rolex, so dealer will like to sell fast and with good price. As older watch tends to sell at lower price.

Many people say that they can get Rolex watches with MSRP, yes I know a handful of people who can get almost every watch from certain AD, as they are real collector and has bought as many as 40 watches for last ten years, if you think you can buy as many as 3-4 watches a year, you may have a chance to become VIP at this AD, however I can see after last years, even these VIPS are less being called by their AD for watch collection.

HK Snob