Luxury watch trend in next 5 years 2024-2028

 We all know it's difficult to predict with certainty what the exact trends in the high-end luxury watch market will be over the next five to ten years, as consumer preferences can be influenced by a variety of factors such as fashion, technology, celebrities’ preference, watch maker influence, and cultural shifts. However, based on current trends and market indicators, there are a few predictions that can be made.

One trend that may continue to gain popularity is the customization of luxury watches. Some high-end watch brands offer customers the ability to customize their watches with different materials, colors, and finishes, and this trend may continue to expand over the next few years. Typical example is Rolex Day Date “puzzle” at W & W premiere 2023 that will be having MSRP $0.5M, I can say the market price will be not less than $1.5m.

In terms of price trends, it's difficult to predict with certainty how prices will change over the next five years. However, based on historical trends, it's likely that prices for high-end luxury watches will continue to rise over time. Remember the price of watch was low in 2011 and starting 2012 price started to move up till 2022, that is ten years cycle, I strongly believe by end of 2023 watch price will start to move up. Now we all know Rolex price is moving at its lowest range after the highest price record in 2021, at that time a Daytona White ceramic 116500 was about $450,000. Now it is about $290,000.  A Submariner 116610LN New was selling $120,000 in Nov 2021, now probably we can get one two years watch NOS at $95000, that is a 24% price drop.

Athletes, movie stars, and singers can have a significant influence on watch trends, as they often serve as brand ambassadors or are seen wearing certain watches in public. Based on current trends and market indicators, there are a few indications of which watch brands and styles may be popular among these influencers in 2023. Brad Pitt worn a Vacheron Constantin “222”, a 37mm solid yellow gold watch in 2022.

One indication is the continued popularity of sport watches among athletes and other active individuals. This may include watches with fitness tracking capabilities, durable materials, and other features that cater to an active lifestyle.

Another indication is the growing interest in vintage and retro-inspired watches. Many high-end watch brands are releasing new models that pay homage to classic designs from the past, the 2023 retro of ingenieur of IWC,  Vacheron Constantin 222 in yellow gold. and these watches may appeal to movie stars and other celebrities who value timeless style and sophistication.

In terms of watch brands, Rolex, Patek Philippe, and Audemars Piguet are all popular among athletes, movie stars, and singers, and may continue to be in 2023. Other brands that may gain popularity among these influencers include Hublot, Richard Mille, and Omega.

Ultimately, the influence of athletes, movie stars, and singers on watch trends can be difficult to predict, as their preferences can be influenced by a variety of factors such as personal style, brand partnerships, and cultural trends. However, by staying attuned to the brands and styles favored by these influencers, watch enthusiasts can gain insight into the broader trends shaping the high-end watch market.

I always think that there have been a lot of gatherings in Switzerland from the big watch makers to lay down some road map on what should they do in creating new watches in the coming years.

John Mayer’s gold watch such as Rolex Submariner in gold, Daytona green dial 116508, Daytona Paul Ip 6263. Meaning certain Daytona would be a good watch to be worn by the singers. It is a good value keeper as a watch. Week End debuted to uneven reviews at Cannes yesterday, where the singer continued one of the most sensible horological trends of 2023. Size has been changed from 40-42 reduction to 36-39mm since 2018 until now. Even some men wearing Cartier Crash which I presume that is a smaller watch. More thin that how lady watch. Yes, The Week End’s stunning gem-set Piaget, the Limelight Gala High Jewelry Watch, was technically designed for—and marketed to—women. “More than a women's luxury watch…” reads a bit of copy on Piaget’s site. Can you recall that there is a lot of persons were wearing lady watch back in 1985? What is next?

Conclusion

Watch price will become stable and start to rise by end of 2023

Watch size continue to be smaller in diameter 36-39mm

Gold as a watch material is getting popular

More peoples will go for dress watch of course the ratio will not be as high as comparing with steel sport watch.

Lady watch as a new trend yet to be a norm as in 1986 for male celebrity, need to be observed more.

HK Snob

Price here in HKD,  1 USD$ = 7,8 HKD

Aftermath of recent Vacheron Constantin 222 auction

 After the recent auction of a Vacheron Constantin 222 white gold hit at a stunning price of HK$5M.

I guess that at the marketing and sales discussion at Vacheron Constantin headquarters, there may be having a topics is whether they are going to produce a White Gold Retro version of 222 Jumbo.

As I know many watch collectors are quite prefer a White Gold than a yellow Gold version of a sportive 222. So they even can make a more aggressive MSRP for the White gold version.

Lets watch out.

Next is the model Overseas Generation One 42042 with a case diameter of 37mm There are a few beautiful dial on the first generation Overseas, such as Salmon, blue and white. Will there be a possibility for Vacheron Constantin to make another line of new watches with the classy design of an Overseas series?

To me 50/50. lets see.

I have a White dial, Blue dial 42042 and a Salmon Dial 42052 35 mm version.

I have never owned a wonderful 42042 Salmon 37mm version so far.

HK Snob

Watch Price 2023 Q2 update, still bad

 All watch trade activities have been softened a lot comparing with the same time in 2022.

Roughly speaking we seemed to have a false hope that watch price risen a bit after March 2023 when the more visitors are encouraged to Hong Kong,  but after observing for two months. That is proven a false hope.

Rolex buyers are not as aggressive on buying as they tend to look for lower offers in the market. 

Even they confirm to buy today, they shall be gone on Tomorrow.

Audemars Piguet price drops 40% comparing with May 2021, and 30% comparing with May 2022.

Patek price also dropping a lot like 25-40% depending on models.

Reason behind is the global economy is bad, after the US Silicon Valley bank, the Signature Bank and the first republic band closure... there is a lot of monetary movement from the Western banks to other chosen  banks for higher security level, Swiss Credit bank was in big trouble too.

Looking forward

Speculating, But this is the best time for people who are keen at search for those watches they like, they may get a better price.

HK Snob

All it takes is Knowledge, capital and guts to buy vintage collectible watch

This is a very interesting story of a rare Vacheron Constantin 222 watch.

5 months ago there is watch show held in Hong Kong, friend of mine spotted a beautiful Vacheron Constantin 222 from a western dealer, he was asking certain price which is about HK$480000, he was trying to think if this is real stuff from Vacheron Constantin as this is made of white gold. Googles did to help to tell, well if a stainless steel he could have bought is as there are known certain 100 pieces of steel and in yellow gold Jumbo 222. But this is white gold... he finally dropped down the watch, another anxiously waiting friend of mine grabbed it instantly and asking for final price, he bought it on the next day.

I had such a great honor to wear this piece of watch myself at from him. Heavy like 180 grams, beautifully made, also clean cases as it was fresh from factory... I have a yellow gold 222 but it was my first time seeing a white gold.... well, this watch was auction with HK$5M as shown here.

Moral of the story is all it takes is knowledge, capital and most important one is guts... do you dare to buy if there is even no information on a watch available on Google....

He bought it.... a man of knowledge, capital and GUTS. Of course you have to spend time focusing on sourcing it. That is a great fun if you can find a watch you like.

Congratulations! 

HK Snob

 

Don't expect there is no fake Rolex bought from Pawn Shop in Hong Kong

 If a Hong Kong pawn shop buys a fake Rolex watch unknowingly, they may not be held legally liable for selling counterfeit goods, as long as they can demonstrate that they had no reason to suspect that the watch was fake. 

However, if a pawn shop knowingly purchases and resells counterfeit goods, they could face legal consequences, including fines and even imprisonment. It's important to note that buying and selling counterfeit goods is illegal in Hong Kong, and the authorities take this issue very seriously. Therefore, it is in the best interest of pawn shops to take all necessary precautions to ensure that they do not purchase or sell counterfeit goods, including Rolex watches.

As far as I know some Pawn shops mistakenly bought in some fake Rolex, they will sell out at Rolex price, of course I can't disclose which Pawn shops here, well, if you go for buying Rolex from Pawn shops, you should prepare to have chance that some of them may be fake! Always go to larger older pawn shops as they are supposed to have more experinece to tell, however there are still escapees!

Best way is to authenticate them at A7, CWR or Rolex Service centre if you have suspicions. Normally A7 or CWR charges HKD$800 per watch for authentication.

HK Snob

買錶注意

 最近日都連續發生幾單嘢都係喺網上買錶出事，一個就你美孚地鐵站內俾人搶咗一隻十萬元的勞力士錶。另外我有個朋友隻Batman差唔多俾人騙去，咁其實我哋有啲嘢要注意啊。

第一吾還價嗰啲要小心。

第二開咗個Account幾日嗰啲或者係完全冇評價嗰啲小心。

第三，香港人買錶超過五萬蚊都問三代.問長問短啦又要影相又乜。唔問嘅你反而要小心囉。

第四通常我哋要去銀行嘅lobby 或者五星酒店嘅lobby有CCTV 照住個地方才交易。

第六或者係餐廳嘅角落。

第七，要遠離門口

第八，你一個人，人哋二三個你份外要留神，除非你隻錶好貴人哋唔會幾個人一齊嚟睇㗎。

第九。太貴重的手表，找多個人幫手。

第十，有些少唔對板就終止交易！

第十一亦都係最重要，找我地團隊幫手睇場，或到我地港九聯營店內交收，驗表。收費無幾，買得開心。

HK Snob

Watch buyers of general Hong Kong

 

What do you think most of the general Hong Kong people concerns on buying watches?

1. Price

2. Price

3. What's they are buying?

4. Who they are buying from?

You know what I am talking about.

Smart buyers consider:-

1. What is buying?

2. Who is buying from?

3. What is the price?

Smart buyers are usually experienced watch collectors, expert and watch gurus, they are buying watches they like rather than those watch in hype. Smart buyer may not be a Rolex fan, of course there are exceptional, as some are good Rolex worth our buying, but not those new one recently made within 2020-2023. Exceptional items such as GMT White gold 116719 Meteorite, Daytona Meteorite, may be a first edition Pepsi Jubilee 116710BLRO Blossom red bezel. 

After ten years smart buyer' watches may appreciate 80% of the value they bought. That could make a big difference. 

Another guy i know he is keen on buying Cartier Crash, he may have 6 pieces from Pink Gold, white gold and yellow gold with diamond from $200,000 to $400,000 he nought between 2010-2022.

How all they watches have been appreciated 250% as an average, that is a great deal!

Well, to me, I keep on buying from friend who likes to sell me as I promise of one day I sell the watch, I will ask him first... this is an important commitment to the seller and that is most of them like to sell me.

HK Snob 

Real and Fake Rolex Box

 There are several differences between a real and a fake Rolex box that you can look for:

1. Quality: A genuine Rolex box is made with high-quality materials and has a solid and sturdy feel. In contrast, a fake Rolex box may feel flimsy and cheaply made.

2. Logo: The Rolex logo on a genuine box is typically crisp, clear, and well-defined. On a fake box, the logo may be blurry or poorly defined. check the gold logo, the real Rolex logo sits flat on the box, the fake one may have gap between the logo and the box.

3. Color: The colors on a genuine Rolex box are usually consistent and vibrant. On a fake box, the colors may be faded, lighter or appear different from the genuine colors.

4. Text: The text on a genuine Rolex box is typically clear and easy to read. On a fake box, the text may be blurry or difficult to read. 

5. A Real Rolex box has a flat and straight seam on the paper folding line. 

6. A real Rolex box should always come with white paper sleeve.

It's important to note that counterfeiters are constantly improving their methods, so some fake Rolex boxes may be difficult to distinguish from the genuine article. If you have any doubts about the authenticity of a Rolex box, it's best to consult with a professional appraiser or jeweler.

HK Snob

Remarks 

Right one is real Box 

Fake Rolex boxes

There are two of HK watch dealers told me yesterday that there are fake Rolex boxes flooded in the HK market.

So you should take note, as even a watch dealer could buy some of the fake boxes from dealers or his suppliers.

The fake box and authentic box are quite similar but come to hands of expert like I, can tell the difference.

Now we have only two size of Rolex Box the M and L, no more S size.

Currently the real stuff M box is selling between dealers from HK$1200-1300 whereas I heard that the fake one is HK$700 only. The price of the real box reaching hands of end user is about HK$1500.

Next time, pay attention on the watch you buy and also the box, if the box is fake, check 2X more on your watch. 

Wish you had a good buy from trustworthy dealers.

Check my other post on how to tell the good and fake Rolex box.

HK Snob

2023 Rolex OP Bubble is available in Hong Kong!

After two weeks of W&W, Rolex had announced this bubble oyster perpetual, we have seen this watch in Hong Kong already. Surprise?  I don't know if bubble is the right word to describe this watch.

No, when you check carefully you know, I think some people had taken a HD picture on the Rolex watch at the show, and immediately copy the colour scheme and design, fabricated this kind of dial.

Well, this is another reason I don't like buying this kind of  watch, there is minimum horological effort. This year they launch a bubble and next year they can launch Kubrick, and what you wear is just a gimmick of Rolex, the long-term value may not be much.

Like the tiffany blue OP two years ago, they are already losing their popularity and glory.

HK Snob

Insider information that Rolex would not like you to know

Rolex occupies one third of the Swiss watch market, being top player amongst all major luxury watches for the last ten years. Still Rolex's latest strategy is to take up preowned watch market by offering CPO service, likely will happen in Hong Kong in 2023. 

There are many friends coming from China recently called me asking why they can't buy Rolex, he said Sport models are understandable, but even Day Date and Date Just is not available at Rolex boutique.

Well, Rolex treats their authored dealers (AD) as their customers, the end users are not Rolex customer at all.

Rolex cares about the performance of their ADs commitment and controlling their ADs. 

Being AD, they have to keep sales  quota to Rolex in order to keep their dealership.

If you have no purchase history at the AD, you go to AD asking GMT Master or Daytona, their staff will say that asking you to leave contact and once they have it, they will call you! This is a way to make you feel better only as they don't want to see you anymore at all. After you left, most of the contact will be destroyed. This is very different with Patek, they really record your contact submit to the Local office GM to evaluate of giving you the watch or not.

Senior Manager or director is connected to trustable dealer, they used to sell dealers by batches at back door with sport model and least popular models at price they feel good with each other. The dealer then sells at a calculated price they can sell fast and with profit. As many end user tends to buy fresh Rolex, so dealer will like to sell fast and with good price. As older watch tends to sell at lower price.

Many people say that they can get Rolex watches with MSRP, yes I know a handful of people who can get almost every watch from certain AD, as they are real collector and has bought as many as 40 watches for last ten years, if you think you can buy as many as 3-4 watches a year, you may have a chance to become VIP at this AD, however I can see after last years, even these VIPS are less being called by their AD for watch collection.

HK Snob

Best of Audemars Piguet

 Audemars Piguet is a Swiss luxury watchmaker that has produced many iconic watches throughout its history. Here are some of the brand's greatest watches:

1. Royal Oak (1972): The Royal Oak is perhaps Audemars Piguet's most famous and iconic watch. Designed by Gérald Genta, it was the brand's first luxury sports watch and featured a distinctive octagonal bezel with exposed screws and integrated bracelet. The Royal Oak has been produced in many variations over the years and is still highly sought after by collectors today. The first Royal Oak carries a ref. 5402, A series price is getting higher year by year. 

2. Royal Oak Offshore (1993): The Royal Oak Offshore was a larger, more rugged version of the original Royal Oak, designed for extreme sports and adventure. It featured a 42mm case and a bold, masculine design. The Royal Oak Offshore has also been produced in many variations over the years and remains a popular choice among collectors. 

3. Millenary (1995): The Millenary was a departure from Audemars Piguet's traditional round watch designs, featuring an oval-shaped case and an off-center dial. The watch was designed to showcase the brand's hand-finishing and watchmaking expertise, with a visible balance wheel and intricate movement decoration.

4. Jules Audemars Minute Repeater (2000): The Jules Audemars Minute Repeater is a highly complicated watch that features a minute repeater complication, which chimes the time when a button is pressed. The watch also features a tourbillon and perpetual calendar, making it one of Audemars Piguet's most sophisticated timepieces.

5. CODE 11.59 (2019): The CODE 11.59 is a relatively new addition to Audemars Piguet's lineup, introduced in 2019. It features a unique, octagonal case with a round dial and is available in a variety of complications, including a tourbillon and perpetual calendar. The CODE 11.59 has been praised for its innovative design and high level of craftsmanship.

These are just a few examples of Audemars Piguet's greatest watches. The brand has produced many other notable timepieces over the years, and its commitment to quality and innovation has made it one of the most respected names in the luxury watch industry.

In short, I am a fan of Audemars Piguet, I collect the Royal Oak typically the 39mm Jumbo 5402 and first batches of Offshor. I think this is its 30th anniversary, but due to the trend for watch size is getting smaller, so a 42mm Offshore may not catch up too much of attention. But I think that is second in the list of most successful watch series from Audemars Piguet.

HK Snob

Preowned or new Rolex

 Well, my first watch I bought using my money was a Rolex Date Just, I sold it with some earning one year later to the second engineer who bought it for his wife... That was my few watches I bought as brand new.

I bought it in a Rolex AD in Jordan road, Price as $5,025, back in 1981. at That time my monthly salary was $4,004. 

Since then I had bought as many may be 100 Rolex but so far may be less than 4 pieces are brand new.

Because I think it's more value I got from buying preowned watch.

Well, many of known buyers that I know, they have very high resistance buying used watch.

Commonly the have an idea, why I have to use someone watch that had been worn before?

Well, I presume that you should not buy any used cars that had been driven by someone or pre-owned home that had been lived by other people? Or you should not go to restaurant that the eating utensils had been used by others?

From the Hygenic point of view, I think used watch if bought from someone, we should change the old strap, and I used to keep the original strap as some buyer wants it. for the watch, we can use some alcohol to clean it, for the bracelet, we can use detergent to wash and clean, that should be OK.

Well, if you are a vintage watch collector like I, I don't mind that watch had been used by someone before.

And the only way I can get vintage watch is buying from the used watch market, unless you can get a NOS vintage, that could be very expensive!

Buying new watch could be good of course if I were financially strong, but under certain budget, I can't  buy new watches. And once you bought new watch, and using it for certain period of time, its classified as pre-owned watch already. a brand new Daytona 116500 white is now $280,000, but if you use it for two months with some hairline scratches, the price is $240,000, (10 percents of the watch value is gone, or may be higher if there is nothing scratches could be found. 

So I always preferred buying pre-owned Rolex, because of the value.

HK Snob

Remarks unit here is HKD

What is Rolex next move to choose their customers in 2024

1980- less 18%-22% discount have stock, free Char Siu rice and coffee would be served if you buy a watch there.

1990- less 15%, have stock 

2000 - less 10%, have stock 

2014 - less 5% -8% still have stock, line up at waiting list 

2020- no discount, VIP has to wait, non VIP can put your name on waiting list, they would renew the list every three months.

2021- display only NFS, no stock, gray waiting list!

2023, VIP Please register reservation in advance if you intend to visit Rolex boutique, this happens in Osaka, Hong Kong will be next to follow?

2024 - prove to Rolex you are Billionaire? LOL

HK Snob

World top 20 largest watch ranking 2108-2022

Rolex has been top one all times.

Omega was taken up by Cartier.

AP is No. 3 whereas Patek is No. 4

VC s climbing up to top ten.

Longines is top 7 because of China market

This is purely an indication of ranking by their revenue, but look at the number of watches they make each year.

Rolex 1m

Patek 40,000

Audemars Piguet 50,000

Vacheron Constantin 30000

Then you know who is the best brands of all time...

In my understanding, the largest brand should be the contribution of these makers to the world, 

the history of the watch company, heritage, design innovation and workmanship, aesthetic value, long-term value and most of all, after sales support.

In my Mind these are the ranking if I choose a watch

1. Patek Philippe

2. Vacheron Constantin

3. Audemars Piguet

4. Breguet

5. Omega

6. JLC, 

7. Panerai

8.  Cartier

9. Richard Mille

10. A Lange

11, FP Journe

12. MB&F

13. Jacob & Co

14. Chopard

15. Seiko

16. Casio G shock

17. Longines

18 .Tudor

19.  Rolex 

HK Snob

Watch Market April 2023

 From Various dealers comment and over 500 Whatsapp Hong Kong dealers daily trade, I visualize that these are the cases;

Many buyers are keen on Rolex under $90,000

More expensive watches such as Day Date, Daytona is slow down a lot, buyer has hesitation to buy more than $100,000 watch. 

The trade activities were high in first two week of March but after third week till now, it is slow down.

May be people are watching the business situation and number of visitors coming for Hong Kong for luxury watches purchase.

Obviously, I see more people coming from Philippines to Hong Kong to buy watches, to their surprises, Hong Kong Rolex was used to be 10-13% cheaper in 2012-2017, but now the price in Manila and Hong Kong is laterally same. Mainly due to the Hong Kong Dollar is gaining a lot. 

When I still was in Manila in 2017, 1 HKD gets 5.3 Peso. Now 1 HKD can get 7.2 Peso!!

So, advice to my friends from the Philippines, no need to come to Hong Kong for your Rolex. It will be less hussle to get taxed with you buy locally in Manila.

HK Snob