Watch Market April 2023

 From Various dealers comment and over 500 Whatsapp Hong Kong dealers daily trade, I visualize that these are the cases;

Many buyers are keen on Rolex under $90,000

More expensive watches such as Day Date, Daytona is slow down a lot, buyer has hesitation to buy more than $100,000 watch. 

The trade activities were high in first two week of March but after third week till now, it is slow down.

May be people are watching the business situation and number of visitors coming for Hong Kong for luxury watches purchase.

Obviously, I see more people coming from Philippines to Hong Kong to buy watches, to their surprises, Hong Kong Rolex was used to be 10-13% cheaper in 2012-2017, but now the price in Manila and Hong Kong is laterally same. Mainly due to the Hong Kong Dollar is gaining a lot. 

When I still was in Manila in 2017, 1 HKD gets 5.3 Peso. Now 1 HKD can get 7.2 Peso!!

So, advice to my friends from the Philippines, no need to come to Hong Kong for your Rolex. It will be less hussle to get taxed with you buy locally in Manila.

HK Snob

My thought on Watches & Wonders

There is nothing new on Watches & Wonders at all, well, I did not have chance to go there but we can

get most of the information from many sites and youtubers.

This is my feeling on their Swiss watches:

No surprise, new bottles on old wine.

The Smaller, the slimmer the winner

Yesterday was Rolex's success, Today Rolex is dead.

Platinum Daytona 2023 is having a transparent bottom to expose his weakness. 

HK Snob

Hong Kong Watch Market Atmosphere in April 2023

It is not strange to see there are good deal in the private watch market and or from dealers.

These are some of them:-

AP 15202ST $500,000  (it was $1M 12 months ago)

Rolex Hulk 2015 full set $105,000 (it was $155,000 12 months ago)

Rolex Daytona 116500LN white $260,000, (it was $450,000 in 2021)

Rolex GMT Meteorite 116719 is $485000 (it was $730,000 in 2021)

Etc....

Reason

70% people only buy watch when the price is Up, no one tends to buy when price is going down

10% smart people will tend to buy at these time as they have more confidence on these pieces of watch than the US greenbacks, or Gold.

10% of people just wandering between buy of no buy

10% of the rest has no money to buy, that is the case.

After 2023 Q4 when the wars is stopped, when US inflation rate is reduced to 5% say, then the 10% people who buy the watch now will be harvesting...

I have seen is kind of cycle and nothing I can do just jealous as I am not having money to pour into this game.

HK Snob

Battle between sport and dress watch

Sport watch

A sports watch is designed for active individuals who engage in physical activities such as running, swimming, cycling, hiking and other outgoing sports. These watches typically have feature such automatic, water resistance, shock proof, larger dial size to read the time, mostly stainless steel cases, durable, metal bracelet or silicone strap. Watch diameter is about 36-44mm with thickness 8-14mm.

Dress watch

A dress watch is typically worn for formal occasions and has a more sophisticated and elegant design. These watches may have features such as a leather strap, a simple face with minimal complications, two hands, no date, manual winding or automatic and a slim profile. Typical watch diameter is from 33-38, thickness from 2-7mm.

Trend

In the past say 80’s, more people tend to wear dress watch with leather strap as rest would be sport type, digital watch then rather uncommonly seeing could see people buying Rolex sport watches, but Date Just two tone for middle class or Day Date for those more affordable people. At that time watches like Cellini, Vacheron Constantin dress watch with either fine crocodile strap or integrated gold bracelet, Patek Calatrava or Eclipse would be the most common high end dress watches. Hi end collectors were those who craze for Patek Philippe or Vacheron Constantin Perpetual Calendar.

Due to Globalization, fast food culture promoting people’s fast pace and casual dress seems was the norm, the sport watch was gradually became a hype since 2000 as office attire moved to smart casual, no more suit and tire, people wear a tennis shoes going to work even some of the salespersons. So dress watches are not as commonly used of sport watch.

Future Trend

As for future trends 2023-2026, it's difficult to predict with certainty, but some possibilities include the integration of more advanced functions on sports watches, such as chronograph, date, power reserve almost all are build with automatic winding. In addition, there may be a trend towards more sustainable and eco-friendly materials used in watch manufacturing for lighter weight, carbon composite and or Titanium, silicon strap for extra wearing comfort.

For dress watches, the trend may be towards more minimalist designs that emphasize simplicity and elegance. Those older design with skeleton watch, special function of monophase or even tourbillon may add on extra value of these dress watches.

So, what does the future look like? Though prediction is always a delicate exercise, the enthusiasm doesn’t seem to be slowing down. The trend back to smaller case sizes is inevitable and even the battle between sports and dress watches might favour dress in the long term. Neo-vintage watches from 1970-2010 will stand the test of time in these scenarios.”

It is possible that the next generation of collectors will see these neo-vintage models as true vintage, as time goes by. However, they also have just enough elements from the modern era that they can hopefully survive, and be enjoyed, for generations to come. We believe there will always be a place for these neo-vintage classics we know and love today, as they were born to be timeless and evergreen. Their beauty and elegance require no context, and will continue to occupy the hearts and wrists of collectors for many decades to come.”

I would think what if there is a new design of a watch with dress look and sport function are between 35-39 be launched in coming two three years, will that become a trend setter on both dress and sport watch? I think the Vacheron Constantin 222 launch in 2022 Watches and Wonders is one of them. As it carries the design specification of both sport and dress watch.

It is an automatic, simple dial with date think as 7 mm, while 7mm with size 36mm is the design factors of a dress watch? A Typical extreme goes to lady’s Audemars Piguet AP 37350 CE Carolina Bucci 34mm Royal Oak… if your wrist is small, you can carry this. How about Patek?

Currently ten pieces of watch sold in Hong Kong watch market will have about 8 pieces of Sport and two pieces of dress watch and others, Sport watches are the main stream. However more people are going to migrate into dress watches types as the main size focus is smaller one, so dress watches are tend to be smaller. I don’t think a dress watch with size 39-41mm means to me.  That is not the gold ratio for dress watch on your wrist. .

I am a big fan of dress watch since I was young, well, I have sport watch of course but not as many as dress.

HK Snob

Watch Trend for 2022-2027

When I visit those audio shops, I notice that more cassette decks are found coming with two years ago.

More younger Gen Z people like to go for cassette tape as a hype. This is a cycle for audio, comparing with the watch cycle, what we can see in coming in three years. This is my prediction.

Dress watch is coming back

More people is fed up with the sport watches which are unobtainable at SPR at boutique, no matter Rolex Pepsi, AP Royal Oak, VC Overseas or Patel’s Nautilus. They are free to choose something easier to get. What is that This is where dress watches enter. Most of the top brands have dress watches in their collection, but they have not received the same attention and therefore, are trading below retail price. That does not mean they have not been engineered as well, have worse movements or even aesthetics. I believe this will be realized and you will see demand start to pick up.

The second train of thought is with bad economic times, ‘stealth wealth’ becomes more desirable. What do I mean by this? Showing your wealth becomes less favourable, whether it be around your colleagues or friends, but also in public, However, most dress watch is made in precious metal not steel. The future value is always there. This tends to be a hidden beauty under the sleeve.

Smaller Watch size

Notably the recent Oscar event, there are as many as 4 Cartier Tanks and 3 Omega Aqua Tera worn by the movie stars, don’t mention Michelle Yeoh as she is a diehard fan of Richard Mille. These are trend setter for smaller watches from size 34-38mm.  

Most of the people does not like two-tone from 2000-2022

However, we can see more younger people especially lady going to two tone Rolex sport watches.

This tells me that somehow they have been feeling bored on plain white steel watches.

In fact,I am happy to wear any dress watches if they are slim, cute and rare of course.

If I could see say some of the good Cartier Tanks with beautiful colourful dial, Skeleton Patek or Vacheron Constantin dress watch with size 33-36mm, an AP Tourbillon or a Breguet Repeater in dress watch format, I think I would like to buy if the price is affordable.

HK Snob

Why 80% of people know only Rolex but not those prestiage watches

There are a few reasons why Rolex is often more popular and well-known among the general public compared to other high-end watch brands like Audemars Piguet (AP), Vacheron Constantin (VC), or Patek Philippe. One reason is that Rolex has invested heavily in marketing and brand recognition, making it a household name. Rolex has also been around for over a century and has a strong reputation for producing high-quality, reliable watches that can withstand extreme conditions. Additionally, Rolex has a wide range of styles and price points, making it accessible to a broader audience. 

On the other hand, brands like AP, VC, and Patek Philippe are often more exclusive and cater to a niche market of collectors and enthusiasts. These brands may also have a more limited production, making their watches harder to find and more expensive. While these brands may be more prestigious and have a higher level of craftsmanship, they may not have the same level of brand recognition as Rolex. Ultimately, personal preferences and individual tastes play a significant role in which brand someone may prefer. 

HK Snob

Dress watch will be back soon

Who says dress watch would not appreciate in time? The watch trend from 1990-2015 was big watch size 39-47mm. I could see that size hype changed from 35-40mm since 2015 to now. Even Panerai made such a small 38mm in 2021. And more too horological brands start to launch those dress watch notable like Audemars Piguet added the code 11.59. Rolex launched 36mm Explorer two tone which is classified dwarf watch in 2010. 

So my speculation is by 2025-30 the dress watches will be back. Then something like element VC, AP and PP dress watch, triple calendar price will be up. Of course many of my friends know me I like dress watches! Who does not like it?  I have been collecting watches for 43 years. This is purely opinion only.

HK Snob

Why the luxury bag business may be doing better than watches in Hong Kong?

                             Canton Road Luxury boutique Louie Vuitton and Cartier

Recently we can see more line up for luxury bags at Canton Road, a traditional shopping hub for bags such as Louie Vuitton, Chanel, Hermes, Gucci…etc

In my analysis, Bags are more fashion-focused, and fashion trends tend to change more rapidly than watch styles say 2-5 years. This fast-changing cycle of new styles and designs brings customers back to buy the latest bags, even those who already own quite a few. Watches are more lasting pieces say 5-10 years, so customers don't need to update them as frequently. This faster fashion cycle likely boosts bag sales.

Women are the primary target for luxury bags, while watches appeal more to both men and women; more precisely 90% men and 10% women. The higher proportion of female consumers and the importance of bags as a fashion accessory for women could drive more demand and sales. Women may buy more bags to match different outfits and occasions, while a single watch may suffice. Don't underestimate the target being spotted on bag is much larger than the tiny lady watch in her wrist!

Mainland Chinese tourists account for a large portion of luxury sales in Hong Kong. Bags are a very popular item for these tourists to buy in Hong Kong due to perceptions of better selections and prices. As a highly visible fashion item, luxury bags also communicate status and wealth, status of celebrity, confidence of a success which is appealing in the culture. Watches are not quite as high on the shopping lists of these tourists and are not as conspicuous a signal of affluence. So the preferences of this tourist market likely also boost luxury bag sales over watches.

In general, while both watches and bags are popular luxury goods, bags may be more susceptible to changes in fashion trends and more targeted at female consumers. In a market like Hong Kong that attracts a lot of female mainland tourists, this could lead to stronger growth and sales for luxury bags compared to watches. Of course, there is no guarantee this trend will always continue, but it seems a reasonable possibility based on the factors involved.

One thing noted, 90% of the bag purchased are paid by her boy friends of close relation-male, and most ladies enjoy the time their credit card or supplementary credit cards to be printed at those luxury bag boutiques!!

Enjoy the bags, we enjoy the sales!

HK Snob

 

A list of top vintage watches for investment from Patek Philippe, Audemars Piguet, Vacheron Constantin and Rolex

 • Rolex Submariner - The Rolex Submariner is one of the most iconic luxury watches and has historically held its value very well. Submariners made of precious metals like gold or platinum with diamonds or gemstones tend to increase the most in value. Newer models released in 2021 should hold their value and potentially increase over time.

 

• Patek Philippe Nautilus - The Patek Philippe Nautilus is another very collectible luxury watch that holds its value extremely well. Virtually any reference of the Nautilus, especially in steel, has the potential to increase a lot in value over the years. New references released in 2021 will likely be in high demand and hold up as a great investment piece.

 

• Audemars Piguet Royal Oak - The Audemars Piguet Royal Oak is a iconic luxury sports watch that has seen values rise steadily over the years. Stainless steel and solid gold models tend to hold value the best. Limited edition or special anniversary models released in 2021 would be compelling investment options, especially if you can get them at retail price.

 

• Limited edition or special watches - In general, limited edition or special, rare watches from leading luxury brands have the potential to be great investments. This could be a limited edition watch from brands like Patek Philippe, Audemars Piguet or Richard Mille, or a unique watch with precious materials or complications. As long as the watch is in demand and in limited supply, it has potential to gain value.

 

• Vintage watches - Vintage watches from certain brands have seen huge increases in value over the years. In particular, vintage Rolex sport models and Patek Philippe chronographs have been coveted by collectors. If you can find a rare, coveted vintage reference in good original condition, it could prove to be an impressive investment over the long run. However, you do have to be very careful with vintage watches and authenticity.

HK Snob

Top 20 Vintage watches for investment

 1. Patek Philippe 1518 Perpetual Calendar Chronograph

2. Patek Philippe 2499 Perpetual Calendar Chronograph

3. Patek Philippe 3970 Perpetual Calendar Chronograph

4. Audemars Piguet Royal Oak 5402ST or 5402BA Jumbo

5. Rolex Paul Newman Daytona 6263, 6265

6. Rolex Submariner 1680 single Red

7. Rolex GMT-Master 1675, 16760 fat lady

8. Vacheron Constantin Chronograph Ref. 4240

9. Vacheron Constantin Ref. 4072, Overseas 42042 creamy white, Salmon and blue.

10. Rolex Daytona 16520

11. Patek Philippe 1526 Perpetual Calendar

12. Patek Philippe 3940 Perpetual Calendar

13. Audemars Piguet Jules Audemars Moonphase

14. Rolex Ref. 6036 "Jean-Claude Killy" triple calendar

15. Patek Philippe Ref. 2497 perpetual calendar chronograph

16. Patek Philippe Ref. 1591 perpetual calendar chronograph

17. Vacheron Constantin Astronomical Grand Complication No. 4 261

18. Rolex Ref. 6062 "Star Dial" triple date moon phase

19. Patek Philippe Ref. 1563 chronograph

20. Audemars Piguet Ref. 5402ST Royal Oak "A Series"

 This is based on factors like rarity, condition, and how coveted certain references are among vintage watch collectors and investors. Prices for mint condition examples of these watches could be very high, often in the hundreds of thousands or even millions of dollars.

ChatGPT/HK Snob

is Rolex price at its bottom now?

 It's difficult to say definitively whether Rolex watch prices are at the bottom right now. Some factors that could indicate prices are near a bottom: 

• Rolex prices have declined for certain models over the past year due to lower demand during the pandemic and other issues. If the economy starts to recover and demand for luxury watches rebounds, it could put a floor under Rolex prices and potentially lead to some price increases again. 

• The secondary market for used Rolex watches has also seen some price drops. If prices for used Rolexes stabilize or start to increase again, it could signal that new Rolex prices may have hit a bottom. Usually the primary and secondary markets influence each other.  

However, there is still a lot of uncertainty in the market and the economy. If economic issues continue or worsen again, it's possible Rolex prices could face more pressure. And Rolex is known for tightly controlling supply, so if they don't release more supply, it could keep new Rolex watches in demand and prop up prices.  

So while current lower Rolex prices could indicate we're near the bottom, there is no guarantee. The market dynamics around demand, the economy, and Rolex's supply are complex. If you're looking at buying a Rolex, it may depend on your objectives - if you want to get a good price, now could be an opportunity, but if prices could drop more, it may be worth waiting to see how things play out in the months ahead.

Recently I have noticed the trade is getting more , from these inputs

fb, Carousell, IG sales are more active especially after March 1.

Rolex Daytona Ceramic white 116500N was HK$240,000 in Feb, and now HK$260,000

So that is a good sign as Daytona is an index for Rolex price!

20 best looking watches

 1. Patek Philippe Nautilus (1976) - Iconic luxury sports watch designed by Gerald Genta. Features graceful rounded octagonal case and bracelet. 

2. Audemars Piguet Royal Oak (1972) - Another legendary luxury sports watch designed by Gerald Genta, with distinctive octagonal case and exposed screws on bezel. 

3. Jaeger-LeCoultre Reverso (1931) - Iconic reversible watch that can flip its case. Timeless Art Deco-inspired design with elegant simplicity. 

4. A. Lange & Söhne Saxonia (1994) - Prestigious dress watch showcasing German watchmaking prowess. Epitome of luxury and precision with intricate finishes. 

5. Vacheron Constantin Patrimony (2004) - High-end minimalist dress watch revealing Vacheron's commitment to restrained sophistication and fine craftsmanship. and alos its Overseas esp. genration 1 42042.

6. Rolex Daytona (1963) - Iconic chronograph synonymous with prestige and performance. The Daytona has passed into watchmaking legend. 

7. Breguet Classique (1987) - Contemporary dress watch imbued with traditional Breguet flourishes like a guilloche dial and blue pomme hands. Epitomizes Breguet's dedication to fine craft. 

8. Hublot Big Bang (2005) - Bold modern sports watch that blends materials like ceramic, titanium and carbon fiber. Controversial futuristic design that shows Hublot's maverick approach. 

9. Patek Philippe Calatrava (1932) - Archetypal Patek dress watch combining timeless elegance and precision. Represents Patek Philippe's peerless quality and restrained style. 

10. Blancpain Fifty Fathoms (1953) - Early modern dive watch created for French navy. Blancpain's robust yet stylish tool watch set a high bar for dive watches. 

11. Grand Seiko Spring Drive (1999) - Showcases Grand Seiko's mastery of precision engineering with a smooth sweeping seconds hand and titanium case. Combines Seiko's technical expertise with a refined aesthetic. 

12. Chanel J12 (2000) - Iconic modern watch that blended Chanel's fashion sensibility with fine watchmaking. The J12's bold and glossy black ceramic design fused style and substance. 

13. IWC Big Pilot (1940) - Quintessential aviator's watch famed for its massive size and legibility. The Big Pilot is a modern icon that stays true to IWC's instrumental roots. 

14. Panerai Luminor (1950) - Distinctive professional diver's watch invoking Panerai's naval heritage. The Luminor's rugged yet stylish design and tritium tubes make a bold statement.  Also Pre-Vendom watches made between 1993-1996. A classic!

15. TAG Heuer Monaco (1969) - Iconic square-cased chronograph worn by Steve McQueen in film Le Mans. Evokes the glamor of motorsport and TAG Heuer's avant-garde spirit.

 16. Cartier Tank (1917) - One of the most influential luxury watch designs ever. Louis Cartier's elegant Tank shape has enduring appeal. beautiful Tank!

 17. Omega Speedmaster (1957) - Iconic chronograph that went to the moon with Apollo 11 mission. Mix of sporting and celestial heritage gives it legendary status. 

18. IWC Portofino (1984) - Understated and elegant dress watch inspired by Mediterranean chic. Simplicity and refinement define the Portofino's timeless style. 

19. Tudor Black Bay (2012) - Contemporary dive watch that pays homage to Tudor's 1950s/60s models. Combines vintage inspiration with modern ruggedness and performance. 

20. Seiko 5 Sports (1963) - Iconic budget automatic watch that brought mechanical timekeeping to the masses. Rugged, reliable and fashionable, it epitomizes Seiko's philosophy.

HK Snob

How many of the above you have had before?

 

Most Collectible watch for investment within 1 M HKD

 Some of the most collectible watches that could be good for investment within a $1 million HKD budget (around $130,000 USD) include: 

• Rolex Daytona with Paul Newman dial. Vintage Daytonas from the 1960s/70s with the distinctive Paul Newman dial are hugely sought after and prices have skyrocketed. Even with the high prices, they are seen as solid investments that will likely continue to rise over time due to their legendary status. 

• Patek Philippe Calatrava reference 96. The reference 96 from the 1930s is one of the most iconic simple dress watches ever made. In solid gold, it epitomizes Patek's understated elegance and would be a prestigious piece to own, holding its value very well. 

• Audemars Piguet Royal Oak "Jumbo". The original large-size Royal Oak from 1972 is the most coveted version of this luxury sports watch icon. As the watch that launched the genre, an early, well-preserved Royal Oak "Jumbo" would be a very safe and lucrative investment due to its importance and popularity. 

• Omega Speedmaster Professional "Moonwatch". The original Speedmaster Professional worn during the Apollo moon missions has legendary status. As one of the most significant watches ever made, a vintage "Moonwatch" in good condition could be expected to rise substantially in value over the long term, despite already high prices. It represents a piece of history as well as a prestigious watch. 

In general, the most collectible watches are landmark models from the most prestigious brands, in original or near-original condition. While nothing is risk-free, such historically and culturally significant watches have a good chance to steadily gain value over time due to their enduring appeal and limited supply of good-condition vintage pieces. Of course, tastes can change and there is always uncertainty, but iconic watches tend to hold up as relatively safe investments.

ChatGPT reply

To certain extent is OK, but I think there are still a lot more watches in this list 

I will review it again, take it as a reference Only

Here's my list of the top 20 watch brands in the world by popularity and value

 

1. Rolex

2. Patek Philippe

3. Omega

4. Audemars Piguet

5. Richard Mille

6. Hublot

7. A. Lange & Söhne

8. TAG Heuer

9. Cartier

10. IWC

11. Jaeger-LeCoultre

12. Panerai

13. Piaget

14. Vacheron Constantin

15. Blancpain

16. Breguet

17. Glashütte Original

18. Zenith

19. Tudor

20. Seiko / Grand Seiko

This is based on a combination of prestige, history, brand power, popularity, and the value of the watches. The rankings could certainly be debatable, and some regional differences may exist in terms of recognition and appeal. But in general, this list represents the watch brands that are considered the most prestigious, desirable, and valuable in the world,

HK Snob

Rolex Bezel Protector code and on sale

As you may know that All Rolex watches come with a Rolex Bezel protectors made of plastic to prevent any accidental scratches to the mirror polished Rolex bezel, most of the cases during the sale process, they are removed and is supposed not passing to end customer.

They have individual code for matching Rolex models, this is the table show the code of the Protector.

eBay may sell a Daytona bezel protector up to HK$300, or even more. However I have some of the limited supply of the hot models such as Daytona, Submariner and GMT-master II. if you want, at a fraction of price of eBay, contact me directly by Whatsapp 852-51229994

HK Snob

 

What is aftermath thought on the recent auction at Antiqurum Monaco?

Refer to the link here,

1. Vacheron Constantin is capturing more attentions

2. AP Royal Oak 5402 A series steel is not reaching the high only HKJ$500,000, but on the other hand a VC 222 steel is reaching HKJ$1,100,000 which is two times higher than AP!   

3. Patek 5711 green no bid, 5712 no bid, but 3800A with Euro 39,000 that means that 38mm watch may get more people interested or people see the trend is more on smaller watch, hey should buy now when price is considered still "Low".

4. Daytona 116520 Creamy is reaching high price over HK$1m. good to see as Daytona is always king of Rolex.

Summary 

Keep eyes on these

1. VC 222 is good investment, and probably the next gen Overseas Gen 1 41042 blue or creamy white dial!

2. PP Nautilus 3800 white gold or steel.

3. AP Royal Oak 5402 A B or C series at good price.

4. Daytona 115520, 15628 

HK Snob

Monaco Auction Auction | Important Modern & Vintage Timepieces (antiquorum.swiss)