Why the luxury bag business may be doing better than watches in Hong Kong?

                             Canton Road Luxury boutique Louie Vuitton and Cartier

Recently we can see more line up for luxury bags at Canton Road, a traditional shopping hub for bags such as Louie Vuitton, Chanel, Hermes, Gucci…etc

In my analysis, Bags are more fashion-focused, and fashion trends tend to change more rapidly than watch styles say 2-5 years. This fast-changing cycle of new styles and designs brings customers back to buy the latest bags, even those who already own quite a few. Watches are more lasting pieces say 5-10 years, so customers don't need to update them as frequently. This faster fashion cycle likely boosts bag sales.

Women are the primary target for luxury bags, while watches appeal more to both men and women; more precisely 90% men and 10% women. The higher proportion of female consumers and the importance of bags as a fashion accessory for women could drive more demand and sales. Women may buy more bags to match different outfits and occasions, while a single watch may suffice. Don't underestimate the target being spotted on bag is much larger than the tiny lady watch in her wrist!

Mainland Chinese tourists account for a large portion of luxury sales in Hong Kong. Bags are a very popular item for these tourists to buy in Hong Kong due to perceptions of better selections and prices. As a highly visible fashion item, luxury bags also communicate status and wealth, status of celebrity, confidence of a success which is appealing in the culture. Watches are not quite as high on the shopping lists of these tourists and are not as conspicuous a signal of affluence. So the preferences of this tourist market likely also boost luxury bag sales over watches.

In general, while both watches and bags are popular luxury goods, bags may be more susceptible to changes in fashion trends and more targeted at female consumers. In a market like Hong Kong that attracts a lot of female mainland tourists, this could lead to stronger growth and sales for luxury bags compared to watches. Of course, there is no guarantee this trend will always continue, but it seems a reasonable possibility based on the factors involved.

One thing noted, 90% of the bag purchased are paid by her boy friends of close relation-male, and most ladies enjoy the time their credit card or supplementary credit cards to be printed at those luxury bag boutiques!!

Enjoy the bags, we enjoy the sales!

HK Snob

 

A list of top vintage watches for investment from Patek Philippe, Audemars Piguet, Vacheron Constantin and Rolex

 • Rolex Submariner - The Rolex Submariner is one of the most iconic luxury watches and has historically held its value very well. Submariners made of precious metals like gold or platinum with diamonds or gemstones tend to increase the most in value. Newer models released in 2021 should hold their value and potentially increase over time.

 

• Patek Philippe Nautilus - The Patek Philippe Nautilus is another very collectible luxury watch that holds its value extremely well. Virtually any reference of the Nautilus, especially in steel, has the potential to increase a lot in value over the years. New references released in 2021 will likely be in high demand and hold up as a great investment piece.

 

• Audemars Piguet Royal Oak - The Audemars Piguet Royal Oak is a iconic luxury sports watch that has seen values rise steadily over the years. Stainless steel and solid gold models tend to hold value the best. Limited edition or special anniversary models released in 2021 would be compelling investment options, especially if you can get them at retail price.

 

• Limited edition or special watches - In general, limited edition or special, rare watches from leading luxury brands have the potential to be great investments. This could be a limited edition watch from brands like Patek Philippe, Audemars Piguet or Richard Mille, or a unique watch with precious materials or complications. As long as the watch is in demand and in limited supply, it has potential to gain value.

 

• Vintage watches - Vintage watches from certain brands have seen huge increases in value over the years. In particular, vintage Rolex sport models and Patek Philippe chronographs have been coveted by collectors. If you can find a rare, coveted vintage reference in good original condition, it could prove to be an impressive investment over the long run. However, you do have to be very careful with vintage watches and authenticity.

HK Snob

Top 20 Vintage watches for investment

 1. Patek Philippe 1518 Perpetual Calendar Chronograph

2. Patek Philippe 2499 Perpetual Calendar Chronograph

3. Patek Philippe 3970 Perpetual Calendar Chronograph

4. Audemars Piguet Royal Oak 5402ST or 5402BA Jumbo

5. Rolex Paul Newman Daytona 6263, 6265

6. Rolex Submariner 1680 single Red

7. Rolex GMT-Master 1675, 16760 fat lady

8. Vacheron Constantin Chronograph Ref. 4240

9. Vacheron Constantin Ref. 4072, Overseas 42042 creamy white, Salmon and blue.

10. Rolex Daytona 16520

11. Patek Philippe 1526 Perpetual Calendar

12. Patek Philippe 3940 Perpetual Calendar

13. Audemars Piguet Jules Audemars Moonphase

14. Rolex Ref. 6036 "Jean-Claude Killy" triple calendar

15. Patek Philippe Ref. 2497 perpetual calendar chronograph

16. Patek Philippe Ref. 1591 perpetual calendar chronograph

17. Vacheron Constantin Astronomical Grand Complication No. 4 261

18. Rolex Ref. 6062 "Star Dial" triple date moon phase

19. Patek Philippe Ref. 1563 chronograph

20. Audemars Piguet Ref. 5402ST Royal Oak "A Series"

 This is based on factors like rarity, condition, and how coveted certain references are among vintage watch collectors and investors. Prices for mint condition examples of these watches could be very high, often in the hundreds of thousands or even millions of dollars.

ChatGPT/HK Snob

is Rolex price at its bottom now?

 It's difficult to say definitively whether Rolex watch prices are at the bottom right now. Some factors that could indicate prices are near a bottom: 

• Rolex prices have declined for certain models over the past year due to lower demand during the pandemic and other issues. If the economy starts to recover and demand for luxury watches rebounds, it could put a floor under Rolex prices and potentially lead to some price increases again. 

• The secondary market for used Rolex watches has also seen some price drops. If prices for used Rolexes stabilize or start to increase again, it could signal that new Rolex prices may have hit a bottom. Usually the primary and secondary markets influence each other.  

However, there is still a lot of uncertainty in the market and the economy. If economic issues continue or worsen again, it's possible Rolex prices could face more pressure. And Rolex is known for tightly controlling supply, so if they don't release more supply, it could keep new Rolex watches in demand and prop up prices.  

So while current lower Rolex prices could indicate we're near the bottom, there is no guarantee. The market dynamics around demand, the economy, and Rolex's supply are complex. If you're looking at buying a Rolex, it may depend on your objectives - if you want to get a good price, now could be an opportunity, but if prices could drop more, it may be worth waiting to see how things play out in the months ahead.

Recently I have noticed the trade is getting more , from these inputs

fb, Carousell, IG sales are more active especially after March 1.

Rolex Daytona Ceramic white 116500N was HK$240,000 in Feb, and now HK$260,000

So that is a good sign as Daytona is an index for Rolex price!

20 best looking watches

 1. Patek Philippe Nautilus (1976) - Iconic luxury sports watch designed by Gerald Genta. Features graceful rounded octagonal case and bracelet. 

2. Audemars Piguet Royal Oak (1972) - Another legendary luxury sports watch designed by Gerald Genta, with distinctive octagonal case and exposed screws on bezel. 

3. Jaeger-LeCoultre Reverso (1931) - Iconic reversible watch that can flip its case. Timeless Art Deco-inspired design with elegant simplicity. 

4. A. Lange & Söhne Saxonia (1994) - Prestigious dress watch showcasing German watchmaking prowess. Epitome of luxury and precision with intricate finishes. 

5. Vacheron Constantin Patrimony (2004) - High-end minimalist dress watch revealing Vacheron's commitment to restrained sophistication and fine craftsmanship. and alos its Overseas esp. genration 1 42042.

6. Rolex Daytona (1963) - Iconic chronograph synonymous with prestige and performance. The Daytona has passed into watchmaking legend. 

7. Breguet Classique (1987) - Contemporary dress watch imbued with traditional Breguet flourishes like a guilloche dial and blue pomme hands. Epitomizes Breguet's dedication to fine craft. 

8. Hublot Big Bang (2005) - Bold modern sports watch that blends materials like ceramic, titanium and carbon fiber. Controversial futuristic design that shows Hublot's maverick approach. 

9. Patek Philippe Calatrava (1932) - Archetypal Patek dress watch combining timeless elegance and precision. Represents Patek Philippe's peerless quality and restrained style. 

10. Blancpain Fifty Fathoms (1953) - Early modern dive watch created for French navy. Blancpain's robust yet stylish tool watch set a high bar for dive watches. 

11. Grand Seiko Spring Drive (1999) - Showcases Grand Seiko's mastery of precision engineering with a smooth sweeping seconds hand and titanium case. Combines Seiko's technical expertise with a refined aesthetic. 

12. Chanel J12 (2000) - Iconic modern watch that blended Chanel's fashion sensibility with fine watchmaking. The J12's bold and glossy black ceramic design fused style and substance. 

13. IWC Big Pilot (1940) - Quintessential aviator's watch famed for its massive size and legibility. The Big Pilot is a modern icon that stays true to IWC's instrumental roots. 

14. Panerai Luminor (1950) - Distinctive professional diver's watch invoking Panerai's naval heritage. The Luminor's rugged yet stylish design and tritium tubes make a bold statement.  Also Pre-Vendom watches made between 1993-1996. A classic!

15. TAG Heuer Monaco (1969) - Iconic square-cased chronograph worn by Steve McQueen in film Le Mans. Evokes the glamor of motorsport and TAG Heuer's avant-garde spirit.

 16. Cartier Tank (1917) - One of the most influential luxury watch designs ever. Louis Cartier's elegant Tank shape has enduring appeal. beautiful Tank!

 17. Omega Speedmaster (1957) - Iconic chronograph that went to the moon with Apollo 11 mission. Mix of sporting and celestial heritage gives it legendary status. 

18. IWC Portofino (1984) - Understated and elegant dress watch inspired by Mediterranean chic. Simplicity and refinement define the Portofino's timeless style. 

19. Tudor Black Bay (2012) - Contemporary dive watch that pays homage to Tudor's 1950s/60s models. Combines vintage inspiration with modern ruggedness and performance. 

20. Seiko 5 Sports (1963) - Iconic budget automatic watch that brought mechanical timekeeping to the masses. Rugged, reliable and fashionable, it epitomizes Seiko's philosophy.

HK Snob

How many of the above you have had before?

 

Most Collectible watch for investment within 1 M HKD

 Some of the most collectible watches that could be good for investment within a $1 million HKD budget (around $130,000 USD) include: 

• Rolex Daytona with Paul Newman dial. Vintage Daytonas from the 1960s/70s with the distinctive Paul Newman dial are hugely sought after and prices have skyrocketed. Even with the high prices, they are seen as solid investments that will likely continue to rise over time due to their legendary status. 

• Patek Philippe Calatrava reference 96. The reference 96 from the 1930s is one of the most iconic simple dress watches ever made. In solid gold, it epitomizes Patek's understated elegance and would be a prestigious piece to own, holding its value very well. 

• Audemars Piguet Royal Oak "Jumbo". The original large-size Royal Oak from 1972 is the most coveted version of this luxury sports watch icon. As the watch that launched the genre, an early, well-preserved Royal Oak "Jumbo" would be a very safe and lucrative investment due to its importance and popularity. 

• Omega Speedmaster Professional "Moonwatch". The original Speedmaster Professional worn during the Apollo moon missions has legendary status. As one of the most significant watches ever made, a vintage "Moonwatch" in good condition could be expected to rise substantially in value over the long term, despite already high prices. It represents a piece of history as well as a prestigious watch. 

In general, the most collectible watches are landmark models from the most prestigious brands, in original or near-original condition. While nothing is risk-free, such historically and culturally significant watches have a good chance to steadily gain value over time due to their enduring appeal and limited supply of good-condition vintage pieces. Of course, tastes can change and there is always uncertainty, but iconic watches tend to hold up as relatively safe investments.

ChatGPT reply

To certain extent is OK, but I think there are still a lot more watches in this list 

I will review it again, take it as a reference Only

Here's my list of the top 20 watch brands in the world by popularity and value

 

1. Rolex

2. Patek Philippe

3. Omega

4. Audemars Piguet

5. Richard Mille

6. Hublot

7. A. Lange & Söhne

8. TAG Heuer

9. Cartier

10. IWC

11. Jaeger-LeCoultre

12. Panerai

13. Piaget

14. Vacheron Constantin

15. Blancpain

16. Breguet

17. Glashütte Original

18. Zenith

19. Tudor

20. Seiko / Grand Seiko

This is based on a combination of prestige, history, brand power, popularity, and the value of the watches. The rankings could certainly be debatable, and some regional differences may exist in terms of recognition and appeal. But in general, this list represents the watch brands that are considered the most prestigious, desirable, and valuable in the world,

HK Snob

Rolex Bezel Protector code and on sale

As you may know that All Rolex watches come with a Rolex Bezel protectors made of plastic to prevent any accidental scratches to the mirror polished Rolex bezel, most of the cases during the sale process, they are removed and is supposed not passing to end customer.

They have individual code for matching Rolex models, this is the table show the code of the Protector.

eBay may sell a Daytona bezel protector up to HK$300, or even more. However I have some of the limited supply of the hot models such as Daytona, Submariner and GMT-master II. if you want, at a fraction of price of eBay, contact me directly by Whatsapp 852-51229994

HK Snob

 

What is aftermath thought on the recent auction at Antiqurum Monaco?

Refer to the link here,

1. Vacheron Constantin is capturing more attentions

2. AP Royal Oak 5402 A series steel is not reaching the high only HKJ$500,000, but on the other hand a VC 222 steel is reaching HKJ$1,100,000 which is two times higher than AP!   

3. Patek 5711 green no bid, 5712 no bid, but 3800A with Euro 39,000 that means that 38mm watch may get more people interested or people see the trend is more on smaller watch, hey should buy now when price is considered still "Low".

4. Daytona 116520 Creamy is reaching high price over HK$1m. good to see as Daytona is always king of Rolex.

Summary 

Keep eyes on these

1. VC 222 is good investment, and probably the next gen Overseas Gen 1 41042 blue or creamy white dial!

2. PP Nautilus 3800 white gold or steel.

3. AP Royal Oak 5402 A B or C series at good price.

4. Daytona 115520, 15628 

HK Snob

Monaco Auction Auction | Important Modern & Vintage Timepieces (antiquorum.swiss)

Watch Trades are getting more in the Hong Kong trading groups

 It is obvious more trades are found to be made in the Hong Kong Watch trade groups in recent 10 days.

It is still too early to say as may be short term effect of the border restrictions are removed between Hong Kong, China and Macao. It is moving on the positive way that more visitors will come or leave to these places and I am sure more confidence of watch business will be restored in March time frame.

Let's see, in my opinion, some of the best deal watches could be the right time to buy I mean those neu vintage watches not the new watches in production. 

Such as typically Rolex Daytona 116520, 16520, 16528, 16710BLRO.

Patek Nautilus 3800/G, 3800 Steel, 

AP 5402BA 5402 steel, 15202 

Vacheron Constantin Overseas Generation one

Panerai Pre-V series

Breguet tourbillon

Cartier Sandos 1980-1990 in solid gold

I just name it a few examples here...

More important is buying those you like and you think it can be kept for decades and passing to you next generations. The value is always there.

HK Snob

Kung Hei Fat Choi 2023

 I wish you all watch lovers. collectors or dealers a prosperous year of Rabbit.

Written on the first day of the CNY 22 Jan 2023 with a new bought Montblanc 149 Calligraphy fountain pen.

HK Snob

Resolution 2023

We must accept finite disappointment, but never lost infinite hope.

                                                                 -   Marin Luther King

Merry Xmas and Happy new year from HK Watch Fever

Life is so miserable for us in Hong Kong since black protests issue 2019, then the COVID-19 for three years, then 24 Feb started the Russia-Ukraine war. Every day we have to wear a boring mask... only till last week China started to rename COVID as corona-flu. Well, I hope after this Xmas we can see light in the black tunnel., free traveling between China and HK

We can travel to China without restriction, we can go Macao like we could go in 2018. 

That would be the greatest news for me...

I wish the Russia-Ukraine war will come to an end and the price of PP, VC, AP and Rolex will be re-adjusted again a bit higher...

let's see and I pray

Merry Christman and happy new year.

HK Snob 

Rolex goes into preowned Rolex watch business!

Rolex Certified Pre-Owned watches (CPO) will initially be available at Bucherer boutiques in six countries (Switzerland, Austria, Germany, France, Denmark and the UK) from the start of December 2022. Other Official Rolex Retailers who choose to be part of this programme will be able to do so from spring 2023. The Rolex Certified Pre-Owned Programme equally concerns modern pre-owned watches and not vintage models such as those with Tritium dial!

as there will be a concern in the availability of parts.

Fourth floor of Burcherer building in Berne Switzerland had been displaying preowned watch for sales, but price isn't that attractive at all. They are limited to modern new watches. Nothing is Vintage as there is conflicts of interests if they go for vintage... we need to observe for a period of time.

At Rolex Business perspectives 

1. Their AD has to source used Rolex at certain price, authenticating them, or plus service them, polishing it, giving them a Tag of authentication assurance. that is an administrative and operation cost involved. Then they have to mark it up. The price is 100% not MSRP, may be 4-8% lower the market price of the new Rolex watches in the open market. 

It is not attractive to buyer but if they love the watch and can't buy it brand new, they are come for this as this is certificated real stuff from Rolex with two years warranty, that is better than you buy from unknown shops in the open market. 

2. What is the market size? 

Preowned watch market size is with a current value in the region of CHF 20 billion. And the potential is huge, as it could be worth CHF 39 billion by 2030.

Rolex takes up 28.8% of all Swiss watches made in the whole. That available market size is about CHF 600M a year.  And if there are more than 100 ADs in EU and Asia are selling this. The market capacity is about 100,000 Watches, that is an impact to the pre-owned watch dealers. If the price is attractive, if not that could be a slow-moving market. well, the AD will keep watching and manipulating the service and price for their margin.

3. Vintage Rolex

I think those older models are not planned now, such as 16570, 1675, 1680, 16520, 1665 as they are having very unique dial and hands made up of Tritium material, if Rolex made them CPO watches. they may change with service dial and hands, and that is a disgrace to the watch's originality and would not be the consideration of collectors. This will be an interesting tropic and we will watch out.

4. My comment

Price is the King, if price in between the market price and MSRP, that could be a business model, if that price is skewed to the high side, I think no one would pay for the price for a pre-owned one unless they are 95% or newer.

5. 2023 will be an exciting year for Rolex

HK Snob

When is the best time buying new Rolex?

 It would be 2023 Jan as by that time we hope the Russian Ukraine war will come to an end, then

the price of Rolex should more or less stabilized, if that is bight for own use that should be OK.

I think by then the price of Rolex is then 10% lower than Nov 2022.

It should not be going down further. just my instinct and hunch on Rolex Price.

May be not 100% correct.

Let's see

Watch price trend March to November 2022

This is a graphic display of most of the common model of Rolex watches

HK Snob