What is Rolex next move to choose their customers in 2024

1980- less 18%-22% discount have stock, free Char Siu rice and coffee would be served if you buy a watch there.

1990- less 15%, have stock 

2000 - less 10%, have stock 

2014 - less 5% -8% still have stock, line up at waiting list 

2020- no discount, VIP has to wait, non VIP can put your name on waiting list, they would renew the list every three months.

2021- display only NFS, no stock, gray waiting list!

2023, VIP Please register reservation in advance if you intend to visit Rolex boutique, this happens in Osaka, Hong Kong will be next to follow?

2024 - prove to Rolex you are Billionaire? LOL

HK Snob

World top 20 largest watch ranking 2108-2022

Rolex has been top one all times.

Omega was taken up by Cartier.

AP is No. 3 whereas Patek is No. 4

VC s climbing up to top ten.

Longines is top 7 because of China market

This is purely an indication of ranking by their revenue, but look at the number of watches they make each year.

Rolex 1m

Patek 40,000

Audemars Piguet 50,000

Vacheron Constantin 30000

Then you know who is the best brands of all time...

In my understanding, the largest brand should be the contribution of these makers to the world, 

the history of the watch company, heritage, design innovation and workmanship, aesthetic value, long-term value and most of all, after sales support.

In my Mind these are the ranking if I choose a watch

1. Patek Philippe

2. Vacheron Constantin

3. Audemars Piguet

4. Breguet

5. Omega

6. JLC, 

7. Panerai

8.  Cartier

9. Richard Mille

10. A Lange

11, FP Journe

12. MB&F

13. Jacob & Co

14. Chopard

15. Seiko

16. Casio G shock

17. Longines

18 .Tudor

19.  Rolex 

HK Snob

Watch Market April 2023

 From Various dealers comment and over 500 Whatsapp Hong Kong dealers daily trade, I visualize that these are the cases;

Many buyers are keen on Rolex under $90,000

More expensive watches such as Day Date, Daytona is slow down a lot, buyer has hesitation to buy more than $100,000 watch. 

The trade activities were high in first two week of March but after third week till now, it is slow down.

May be people are watching the business situation and number of visitors coming for Hong Kong for luxury watches purchase.

Obviously, I see more people coming from Philippines to Hong Kong to buy watches, to their surprises, Hong Kong Rolex was used to be 10-13% cheaper in 2012-2017, but now the price in Manila and Hong Kong is laterally same. Mainly due to the Hong Kong Dollar is gaining a lot. 

When I still was in Manila in 2017, 1 HKD gets 5.3 Peso. Now 1 HKD can get 7.2 Peso!!

So, advice to my friends from the Philippines, no need to come to Hong Kong for your Rolex. It will be less hussle to get taxed with you buy locally in Manila.

HK Snob

My thought on Watches & Wonders

There is nothing new on Watches & Wonders at all, well, I did not have chance to go there but we can

get most of the information from many sites and youtubers.

This is my feeling on their Swiss watches:

No surprise, new bottles on old wine.

The Smaller, the slimmer the winner

Yesterday was Rolex's success, Today Rolex is dead.

Platinum Daytona 2023 is having a transparent bottom to expose his weakness. 

HK Snob

Hong Kong Watch Market Atmosphere in April 2023

It is not strange to see there are good deal in the private watch market and or from dealers.

These are some of them:-

AP 15202ST $500,000  (it was $1M 12 months ago)

Rolex Hulk 2015 full set $105,000 (it was $155,000 12 months ago)

Rolex Daytona 116500LN white $260,000, (it was $450,000 in 2021)

Rolex GMT Meteorite 116719 is $485000 (it was $730,000 in 2021)

Etc....

Reason

70% people only buy watch when the price is Up, no one tends to buy when price is going down

10% smart people will tend to buy at these time as they have more confidence on these pieces of watch than the US greenbacks, or Gold.

10% of people just wandering between buy of no buy

10% of the rest has no money to buy, that is the case.

After 2023 Q4 when the wars is stopped, when US inflation rate is reduced to 5% say, then the 10% people who buy the watch now will be harvesting...

I have seen is kind of cycle and nothing I can do just jealous as I am not having money to pour into this game.

HK Snob

Battle between sport and dress watch

Sport watch

A sports watch is designed for active individuals who engage in physical activities such as running, swimming, cycling, hiking and other outgoing sports. These watches typically have feature such automatic, water resistance, shock proof, larger dial size to read the time, mostly stainless steel cases, durable, metal bracelet or silicone strap. Watch diameter is about 36-44mm with thickness 8-14mm.

Dress watch

A dress watch is typically worn for formal occasions and has a more sophisticated and elegant design. These watches may have features such as a leather strap, a simple face with minimal complications, two hands, no date, manual winding or automatic and a slim profile. Typical watch diameter is from 33-38, thickness from 2-7mm.

Trend

In the past say 80’s, more people tend to wear dress watch with leather strap as rest would be sport type, digital watch then rather uncommonly seeing could see people buying Rolex sport watches, but Date Just two tone for middle class or Day Date for those more affordable people. At that time watches like Cellini, Vacheron Constantin dress watch with either fine crocodile strap or integrated gold bracelet, Patek Calatrava or Eclipse would be the most common high end dress watches. Hi end collectors were those who craze for Patek Philippe or Vacheron Constantin Perpetual Calendar.

Due to Globalization, fast food culture promoting people’s fast pace and casual dress seems was the norm, the sport watch was gradually became a hype since 2000 as office attire moved to smart casual, no more suit and tire, people wear a tennis shoes going to work even some of the salespersons. So dress watches are not as commonly used of sport watch.

Future Trend

As for future trends 2023-2026, it's difficult to predict with certainty, but some possibilities include the integration of more advanced functions on sports watches, such as chronograph, date, power reserve almost all are build with automatic winding. In addition, there may be a trend towards more sustainable and eco-friendly materials used in watch manufacturing for lighter weight, carbon composite and or Titanium, silicon strap for extra wearing comfort.

For dress watches, the trend may be towards more minimalist designs that emphasize simplicity and elegance. Those older design with skeleton watch, special function of monophase or even tourbillon may add on extra value of these dress watches.

So, what does the future look like? Though prediction is always a delicate exercise, the enthusiasm doesn’t seem to be slowing down. The trend back to smaller case sizes is inevitable and even the battle between sports and dress watches might favour dress in the long term. Neo-vintage watches from 1970-2010 will stand the test of time in these scenarios.”

It is possible that the next generation of collectors will see these neo-vintage models as true vintage, as time goes by. However, they also have just enough elements from the modern era that they can hopefully survive, and be enjoyed, for generations to come. We believe there will always be a place for these neo-vintage classics we know and love today, as they were born to be timeless and evergreen. Their beauty and elegance require no context, and will continue to occupy the hearts and wrists of collectors for many decades to come.”

I would think what if there is a new design of a watch with dress look and sport function are between 35-39 be launched in coming two three years, will that become a trend setter on both dress and sport watch? I think the Vacheron Constantin 222 launch in 2022 Watches and Wonders is one of them. As it carries the design specification of both sport and dress watch.

It is an automatic, simple dial with date think as 7 mm, while 7mm with size 36mm is the design factors of a dress watch? A Typical extreme goes to lady’s Audemars Piguet AP 37350 CE Carolina Bucci 34mm Royal Oak… if your wrist is small, you can carry this. How about Patek?

Currently ten pieces of watch sold in Hong Kong watch market will have about 8 pieces of Sport and two pieces of dress watch and others, Sport watches are the main stream. However more people are going to migrate into dress watches types as the main size focus is smaller one, so dress watches are tend to be smaller. I don’t think a dress watch with size 39-41mm means to me.  That is not the gold ratio for dress watch on your wrist. .

I am a big fan of dress watch since I was young, well, I have sport watch of course but not as many as dress.

HK Snob

Watch Trend for 2022-2027

When I visit those audio shops, I notice that more cassette decks are found coming with two years ago.

More younger Gen Z people like to go for cassette tape as a hype. This is a cycle for audio, comparing with the watch cycle, what we can see in coming in three years. This is my prediction.

Dress watch is coming back

More people is fed up with the sport watches which are unobtainable at SPR at boutique, no matter Rolex Pepsi, AP Royal Oak, VC Overseas or Patel’s Nautilus. They are free to choose something easier to get. What is that This is where dress watches enter. Most of the top brands have dress watches in their collection, but they have not received the same attention and therefore, are trading below retail price. That does not mean they have not been engineered as well, have worse movements or even aesthetics. I believe this will be realized and you will see demand start to pick up.

The second train of thought is with bad economic times, ‘stealth wealth’ becomes more desirable. What do I mean by this? Showing your wealth becomes less favourable, whether it be around your colleagues or friends, but also in public, However, most dress watch is made in precious metal not steel. The future value is always there. This tends to be a hidden beauty under the sleeve.

Smaller Watch size

Notably the recent Oscar event, there are as many as 4 Cartier Tanks and 3 Omega Aqua Tera worn by the movie stars, don’t mention Michelle Yeoh as she is a diehard fan of Richard Mille. These are trend setter for smaller watches from size 34-38mm.  

Most of the people does not like two-tone from 2000-2022

However, we can see more younger people especially lady going to two tone Rolex sport watches.

This tells me that somehow they have been feeling bored on plain white steel watches.

In fact,I am happy to wear any dress watches if they are slim, cute and rare of course.

If I could see say some of the good Cartier Tanks with beautiful colourful dial, Skeleton Patek or Vacheron Constantin dress watch with size 33-36mm, an AP Tourbillon or a Breguet Repeater in dress watch format, I think I would like to buy if the price is affordable.

HK Snob

Why 80% of people know only Rolex but not those prestiage watches

There are a few reasons why Rolex is often more popular and well-known among the general public compared to other high-end watch brands like Audemars Piguet (AP), Vacheron Constantin (VC), or Patek Philippe. One reason is that Rolex has invested heavily in marketing and brand recognition, making it a household name. Rolex has also been around for over a century and has a strong reputation for producing high-quality, reliable watches that can withstand extreme conditions. Additionally, Rolex has a wide range of styles and price points, making it accessible to a broader audience. 

On the other hand, brands like AP, VC, and Patek Philippe are often more exclusive and cater to a niche market of collectors and enthusiasts. These brands may also have a more limited production, making their watches harder to find and more expensive. While these brands may be more prestigious and have a higher level of craftsmanship, they may not have the same level of brand recognition as Rolex. Ultimately, personal preferences and individual tastes play a significant role in which brand someone may prefer. 

HK Snob

Dress watch will be back soon

Who says dress watch would not appreciate in time? The watch trend from 1990-2015 was big watch size 39-47mm. I could see that size hype changed from 35-40mm since 2015 to now. Even Panerai made such a small 38mm in 2021. And more too horological brands start to launch those dress watch notable like Audemars Piguet added the code 11.59. Rolex launched 36mm Explorer two tone which is classified dwarf watch in 2010. 

So my speculation is by 2025-30 the dress watches will be back. Then something like element VC, AP and PP dress watch, triple calendar price will be up. Of course many of my friends know me I like dress watches! Who does not like it?  I have been collecting watches for 43 years. This is purely opinion only.

HK Snob

Why the luxury bag business may be doing better than watches in Hong Kong?

                             Canton Road Luxury boutique Louie Vuitton and Cartier

Recently we can see more line up for luxury bags at Canton Road, a traditional shopping hub for bags such as Louie Vuitton, Chanel, Hermes, Gucci…etc

In my analysis, Bags are more fashion-focused, and fashion trends tend to change more rapidly than watch styles say 2-5 years. This fast-changing cycle of new styles and designs brings customers back to buy the latest bags, even those who already own quite a few. Watches are more lasting pieces say 5-10 years, so customers don't need to update them as frequently. This faster fashion cycle likely boosts bag sales.

Women are the primary target for luxury bags, while watches appeal more to both men and women; more precisely 90% men and 10% women. The higher proportion of female consumers and the importance of bags as a fashion accessory for women could drive more demand and sales. Women may buy more bags to match different outfits and occasions, while a single watch may suffice. Don't underestimate the target being spotted on bag is much larger than the tiny lady watch in her wrist!

Mainland Chinese tourists account for a large portion of luxury sales in Hong Kong. Bags are a very popular item for these tourists to buy in Hong Kong due to perceptions of better selections and prices. As a highly visible fashion item, luxury bags also communicate status and wealth, status of celebrity, confidence of a success which is appealing in the culture. Watches are not quite as high on the shopping lists of these tourists and are not as conspicuous a signal of affluence. So the preferences of this tourist market likely also boost luxury bag sales over watches.

In general, while both watches and bags are popular luxury goods, bags may be more susceptible to changes in fashion trends and more targeted at female consumers. In a market like Hong Kong that attracts a lot of female mainland tourists, this could lead to stronger growth and sales for luxury bags compared to watches. Of course, there is no guarantee this trend will always continue, but it seems a reasonable possibility based on the factors involved.

One thing noted, 90% of the bag purchased are paid by her boy friends of close relation-male, and most ladies enjoy the time their credit card or supplementary credit cards to be printed at those luxury bag boutiques!!

Enjoy the bags, we enjoy the sales!

HK Snob