Predicting Watch Appreciation: A Look Ahead to 2025
As we approach 2025, the
luxury watch market continues to evolve, with certain brands and models
standing out as top contenders for appreciation in value. This essay analyzes
some key players from 2024, highlighting their potential for growth and the factors
influencing their market value.
Rolex
Rolex remains the most iconic
and sought-after watch brand globally, with a remarkable 70% of total Swiss
watch export revenue attributed to its sales. In 2024, Rolex produced 1.24
million watches, a testament to its enduring popularity. The following models
are particularly noteworthy for potential appreciation:
- Rolex Daytona:
The Paul Newman and ceramic bezel variants are especially coveted.
- Rolex Submariner:
Vintage and limited editions continue to attract collectors.
- Rolex GMT-Master II:
Models with "Pepsi," "Batman," or "Root
Beer" bezels are in high demand.
- Rolex Daytona Le Mans:
The recent 2023 release is poised for appreciation.
Patek Philippe
Synonymous with luxury and
exclusivity, Patek Philippe watches often see significant value increases.
Their intricate complications and limited production enhance desirability. Key
models to watch include:
- Nautilus:
Particularly the discontinued stainless steel 5711.
- Nautilus 5712:
Recently announced for discontinuation, increasing its collectibility.
- Aquanaut:
Limited editions are especially sought after.
- Perpetual Calendar
Chronographs: Notable models include the 5970 and 5270.
- Grand Complications:
Models like the 5208P are highly regarded.
Audemars Piguet (AP)
Audemars Piguet’s Royal Oak
and Royal Oak Offshore models are highly collectible, especially limited
editions. Top models to consider include:
- Royal Oak
"Jumbo" Extra-Thin: Models 15202 and 16202 are
particularly desirable.
- Royal Oak Offshore:
Limited editions, such as the "Safari" or "Mega
Tapisserie," are noteworthy.
- Royal Oak Perpetual
Calendar: The 26574ST model is a strong contender.
Richard Mille
Known for their avant-garde
designs and celebrity endorsements, Richard Mille watches often appreciate
significantly due to their limited production. Important models include:
- RM 011:
Especially in limited editions.
- RM 035:
Rafael Nadal editions are particularly popular.
- RM 027:
Tourbillon models are highly collectible.
FP Journe
As a rising star in
independent watchmaking, FP Journe produces only 3,000 watches annually,
creating high demand among collectors. Models to watch include:
- Chronomètre Bleu
- Octa Lune
- Tourbillon Souverain
Omega
Omega maintains a strong
following, particularly for its Speedmaster and Seamaster models, with select
limited editions appreciating in value. Noteworthy models include:
- Speedmaster Moonwatch:
Vintage or limited editions like the "Apollo 11" 50th
Anniversary are especially valuable.
- Seamaster 300:
Vintage models or limited editions are in demand.
- Omega x Swatch
MoonSwatch: If the hype continues, this model could appreciate.
Tudor
Tudor is gaining traction as
a more affordable alternative to Rolex, with certain models showing strong
potential for appreciation. Key models include:
- Black Bay Fifty-Eight
- Pelagos:
Especially limited editions.
- Tudor Submariner:
Vintage models are particularly sought after.
Cartier
In recent years, Cartier’s
Crash model has achieved record auction prices, indicating strong demand. The
Santos collection, particularly the Burgundy and Ghost dial models, is also
worth monitoring.
Independent Brands
Independent watchmakers like
MB&F, Grönefeld, and A. Lange & Söhne produce limited quantities,
making their watches highly collectible. Notable models include:
- A. Lange & Söhne
Lange 1
- MB&F Horological
Machines
- Grönefeld 1941
Remontoire
Key Factors to Consider
When predicting which watches
will appreciate in value, consider the following factors:
- Limited Editions:
Watches with restricted production runs tend to appreciate faster.
- Celebrity Endorsements:
Models linked to celebrities or significant events often gain value.
- Condition and Provenance:
Mint-condition watches with original boxes and papers are more likely to
appreciate.
- Market Trends:
Monitoring auction results and collector forums can reveal emerging
trends.
What to Look for in 2025
For 2025, I believe the
Cartier Santos—whether in steel, two-tone, or full gold—is an excellent
investment. Its prices have increased by over 50% in the past two years,
indicating strong demand. For example, the Santos Ghost now sells between
HK$50,000 and HK$82,000.
Regarding Rolex, the 1908
Platinum Ice Blue is currently priced at HK$440,000, significantly above its
MSRP of HK$248,900. Additionally, the "Rolex Day-Date Maze" and the
recently discontinued OP "Celebration" model are also worth considering,
although the latter may not appeal to everyone.
In the AP market, the 15202
has seen a dramatic price drop from HK$990,000 to HK$490,000, presenting a
potential buying opportunity.
The hunt for these timepieces
is as enjoyable as the acquisition itself—80% of the fun lies in searching,
while the remaining 20% is the thrill of finding a good deal.
Best of luck in your watch
investment journey!
HK Snob
