最近日都連續發生幾單嘢都係喺網上買錶出事，一個就你美孚地鐵站內俾人搶咗一隻十萬元的勞力士錶。另外我有個朋友隻Batman差唔多俾人騙去，咁其實我哋有啲嘢要注意啊。
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1. Price
2. Price
3. What's they are buying?
4. Who they are buying from?
You know what I am talking about.
Smart buyers consider:-
1. What is buying?
2. Who is buying from?
3. What is the price?
Smart buyers are usually experienced watch collectors, expert and watch gurus, they are buying watches they like rather than those watch in hype. Smart buyer may not be a Rolex fan, of course there are exceptional, as some are good Rolex worth our buying, but not those new one recently made within 2020-2023. Exceptional items such as GMT White gold 116719 Meteorite, Daytona Meteorite, may be a first edition Pepsi Jubilee 116710BLRO Blossom red bezel.
After ten years smart buyer' watches may appreciate 80% of the value they bought. That could make a big difference.
Another guy i know he is keen on buying Cartier Crash, he may have 6 pieces from Pink Gold, white gold and yellow gold with diamond from $200,000 to $400,000 he nought between 2010-2022.
How all they watches have been appreciated 250% as an average, that is a great deal!
Well, to me, I keep on buying from friend who likes to sell me as I promise of one day I sell the watch, I will ask him first... this is an important commitment to the seller and that is most of them like to sell me.
HK Snob
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1. Quality: A genuine Rolex box is made with high-quality materials and has a solid and sturdy feel. In contrast, a fake Rolex box may feel flimsy and cheaply made.
2. Logo: The Rolex logo on a genuine box is typically crisp, clear, and well-defined. On a fake box, the logo may be blurry or poorly defined. check the gold logo, the real Rolex logo sits flat on the box, the fake one may have gap between the logo and the box.
3. Color: The colors on a genuine Rolex box are usually consistent and vibrant. On a fake box, the colors may be faded, lighter or appear different from the genuine colors.
4. Text: The text on a genuine Rolex box is typically clear and easy to read. On a fake box, the text may be blurry or difficult to read.
5. A Real Rolex box has a flat and straight seam on the paper folding line.
6. A real Rolex box should always come with white paper sleeve.
It's important to note that counterfeiters are constantly improving their methods, so some fake Rolex boxes may be difficult to distinguish from the genuine article. If you have any doubts about the authenticity of a Rolex box, it's best to consult with a professional appraiser or jeweler.
HK Snob
Remarks
Right one is real Box
There are two of HK watch dealers told me yesterday that there are fake Rolex boxes flooded in the HK market.
So you should take note, as even a watch dealer could buy some of the fake boxes from dealers or his suppliers.
The fake box and authentic box are quite similar but come to hands of expert like I, can tell the difference.
Now we have only two size of Rolex Box the M and L, no more S size.
Currently the real stuff M box is selling between dealers from HK$1200-1300 whereas I heard that the fake one is HK$700 only. The price of the real box reaching hands of end user is about HK$1500.
Next time, pay attention on the watch you buy and also the box, if the box is fake, check 2X more on your watch.
Wish you had a good buy from trustworthy dealers.
Check my other post on how to tell the good and fake Rolex box.
HK Snob
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No, when you check carefully you know, I think some people had taken a HD picture on the Rolex watch at the show, and immediately copy the colour scheme and design, fabricated this kind of dial.
Well, this is another reason I don't like buying this kind of watch, there is minimum horological effort. This year they launch a bubble and next year they can launch Kubrick, and what you wear is just a gimmick of Rolex, the long-term value may not be much.
Like the tiffany blue OP two years ago, they are already losing their popularity and glory.
HK Snob
Rolex occupies one third of the Swiss watch market, being top player amongst all major luxury watches for the last ten years. Still Rolex's latest strategy is to take up preowned watch market by offering CPO service, likely will happen in Hong Kong in 2023.
There are many friends coming from China recently called me asking why they can't buy Rolex, he said Sport models are understandable, but even Day Date and Date Just is not available at Rolex boutique.
Well, Rolex treats their authored dealers (AD) as their customers, the end users are not Rolex customer at all.
Rolex cares about the performance of their ADs commitment and controlling their ADs.
Being AD, they have to keep sales quota to Rolex in order to keep their dealership.
If you have no purchase history at the AD, you go to AD asking GMT Master or Daytona, their staff will say that asking you to leave contact and once they have it, they will call you! This is a way to make you feel better only as they don't want to see you anymore at all. After you left, most of the contact will be destroyed. This is very different with Patek, they really record your contact submit to the Local office GM to evaluate of giving you the watch or not.
Senior Manager or director is connected to trustable dealer, they used to sell dealers by batches at back door with sport model and least popular models at price they feel good with each other. The dealer then sells at a calculated price they can sell fast and with profit. As many end user tends to buy fresh Rolex, so dealer will like to sell fast and with good price. As older watch tends to sell at lower price.
Many people say that they can get Rolex watches with MSRP, yes I know a handful of people who can get almost every watch from certain AD, as they are real collector and has bought as many as 40 watches for last ten years, if you think you can buy as many as 3-4 watches a year, you may have a chance to become VIP at this AD, however I can see after last years, even these VIPS are less being called by their AD for watch collection.
HK Snob
Audemars Piguet is a Swiss luxury watchmaker that has produced many iconic watches throughout its history. Here are some of the brand's greatest watches:
1. Royal Oak (1972): The Royal Oak is perhaps Audemars Piguet's most famous and iconic watch. Designed by Gérald Genta, it was the brand's first luxury sports watch and featured a distinctive octagonal bezel with exposed screws and integrated bracelet. The Royal Oak has been produced in many variations over the years and is still highly sought after by collectors today. The first Royal Oak carries a ref. 5402, A series price is getting higher year by year.
2. Royal Oak Offshore (1993): The Royal Oak Offshore was a larger, more rugged version of the original Royal Oak, designed for extreme sports and adventure. It featured a 42mm case and a bold, masculine design. The Royal Oak Offshore has also been produced in many variations over the years and remains a popular choice among collectors.
3. Millenary (1995): The Millenary was a departure from Audemars Piguet's traditional round watch designs, featuring an oval-shaped case and an off-center dial. The watch was designed to showcase the brand's hand-finishing and watchmaking expertise, with a visible balance wheel and intricate movement decoration.
4. Jules Audemars Minute Repeater (2000): The Jules Audemars Minute Repeater is a highly complicated watch that features a minute repeater complication, which chimes the time when a button is pressed. The watch also features a tourbillon and perpetual calendar, making it one of Audemars Piguet's most sophisticated timepieces.
5. CODE 11.59 (2019): The CODE 11.59 is a relatively new addition to Audemars Piguet's lineup, introduced in 2019. It features a unique, octagonal case with a round dial and is available in a variety of complications, including a tourbillon and perpetual calendar. The CODE 11.59 has been praised for its innovative design and high level of craftsmanship.
These are just a few examples of Audemars Piguet's greatest watches. The brand has produced many other notable timepieces over the years, and its commitment to quality and innovation has made it one of the most respected names in the luxury watch industry.
In short, I am a fan of Audemars Piguet, I collect the Royal Oak typically the 39mm Jumbo 5402 and first batches of Offshor. I think this is its 30th anniversary, but due to the trend for watch size is getting smaller, so a 42mm Offshore may not catch up too much of attention. But I think that is second in the list of most successful watch series from Audemars Piguet.
HK Snob
Well, my first watch I bought using my money was a Rolex Date Just, I sold it with some earning one year later to the second engineer who bought it for his wife... That was my few watches I bought as brand new.
I bought it in a Rolex AD in Jordan road, Price as $5,025, back in 1981. at That time my monthly salary was $4,004.
Since then I had bought as many may be 100 Rolex but so far may be less than 4 pieces are brand new.
Because I think it's more value I got from buying preowned watch.
Well, many of known buyers that I know, they have very high resistance buying used watch.
Commonly the have an idea, why I have to use someone watch that had been worn before?
Well, I presume that you should not buy any used cars that had been driven by someone or pre-owned home that had been lived by other people? Or you should not go to restaurant that the eating utensils had been used by others?
From the Hygenic point of view, I think used watch if bought from someone, we should change the old strap, and I used to keep the original strap as some buyer wants it. for the watch, we can use some alcohol to clean it, for the bracelet, we can use detergent to wash and clean, that should be OK.
Well, if you are a vintage watch collector like I, I don't mind that watch had been used by someone before.
And the only way I can get vintage watch is buying from the used watch market, unless you can get a NOS vintage, that could be very expensive!
Buying new watch could be good of course if I were financially strong, but under certain budget, I can't buy new watches. And once you bought new watch, and using it for certain period of time, its classified as pre-owned watch already. a brand new Daytona 116500 white is now $280,000, but if you use it for two months with some hairline scratches, the price is $240,000, (10 percents of the watch value is gone, or may be higher if there is nothing scratches could be found.
So I always preferred buying pre-owned Rolex, because of the value.
HK Snob
Remarks unit here is HKD
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Rolex has been top one all times.
Omega was taken up by Cartier.
AP is No. 3 whereas Patek is No. 4
VC s climbing up to top ten.
Longines is top 7 because of China market
This is purely an indication of ranking by their revenue, but look at the number of watches they make each year.
Rolex 1m
Patek 40,000
Audemars Piguet 50,000
Vacheron Constantin 30000
Then you know who is the best brands of all time...
In my understanding, the largest brand should be the contribution of these makers to the world,
the history of the watch company, heritage, design innovation and workmanship, aesthetic value, long-term value and most of all, after sales support.
In my Mind these are the ranking if I choose a watch
1. Patek Philippe
2. Vacheron Constantin
3. Audemars Piguet
4. Breguet
5. Omega
6. JLC,
7. Panerai
8. Cartier
9. Richard Mille
10. A Lange
11, FP Journe
12. MB&F
13. Jacob & Co
14. Chopard
15. Seiko
16. Casio G shock
17. Longines
18 .Tudor
19. Rolex
HK Snob
From Various dealers comment and over 500 Whatsapp Hong Kong dealers daily trade, I visualize that these are the cases;
Many buyers are keen on Rolex under $90,000
More expensive watches such as Day Date, Daytona is slow down a lot, buyer has hesitation to buy more than $100,000 watch.
The trade activities were high in first two week of March but after third week till now, it is slow down.
May be people are watching the business situation and number of visitors coming for Hong Kong for luxury watches purchase.
Obviously, I see more people coming from Philippines to Hong Kong to buy watches, to their surprises, Hong Kong Rolex was used to be 10-13% cheaper in 2012-2017, but now the price in Manila and Hong Kong is laterally same. Mainly due to the Hong Kong Dollar is gaining a lot.
When I still was in Manila in 2017, 1 HKD gets 5.3 Peso. Now 1 HKD can get 7.2 Peso!!
So, advice to my friends from the Philippines, no need to come to Hong Kong for your Rolex. It will be less hussle to get taxed with you buy locally in Manila.
HK Snob
There is nothing new on Watches & Wonders at all, well, I did not have chance to go there but we can
get most of the information from many sites and youtubers.
This is my feeling on their Swiss watches:
No surprise, new bottles on old wine.
The Smaller, the slimmer the winner
Yesterday was Rolex's success, Today Rolex is dead.
Platinum Daytona 2023 is having a transparent bottom to expose his weakness.
HK Snob
It is not strange to see there are good deal in the private watch market and or from dealers.
These are some of them:-
AP 15202ST $500,000 (it was $1M 12 months ago)
Rolex Hulk 2015 full set $105,000 (it was $155,000 12 months ago)
Rolex Daytona 116500LN white $260,000, (it was $450,000 in 2021)
Rolex GMT Meteorite 116719 is $485000 (it was $730,000 in 2021)
Etc....
Reason
70% people only buy watch when the price is Up, no one tends to buy when price is going down
10% smart people will tend to buy at these time as they have more confidence on these pieces of watch than the US greenbacks, or Gold.
10% of people just wandering between buy of no buy
10% of the rest has no money to buy, that is the case.
After 2023 Q4 when the wars is stopped, when US inflation rate is reduced to 5% say, then the 10% people who buy the watch now will be harvesting...
I have seen is kind of cycle and nothing I can do just jealous as I am not having money to pour into this game.
HK Snob
A sports watch is designed for active
individuals who engage in physical activities such as running, swimming,
cycling, hiking and other outgoing sports. These watches typically have feature
such automatic, water resistance, shock proof, larger dial size to read the
time, mostly stainless steel cases, durable, metal bracelet or silicone strap.
Watch diameter is about 36-44mm with thickness 8-14mm.
Dress watch
A dress watch is typically worn for formal
occasions and has a more sophisticated and elegant design. These watches may
have features such as a leather strap, a simple face with minimal
complications, two hands, no date, manual winding or automatic and a slim
profile. Typical watch diameter is from 33-38, thickness from 2-7mm.
Trend
In the past say 80’s, more people tend to
wear dress watch with leather strap as rest would be sport type, digital watch
then rather uncommonly seeing could see people buying Rolex sport watches, but
Date Just two tone for middle class or Day Date for those more affordable
people. At that time watches like Cellini, Vacheron Constantin dress watch with
either fine crocodile strap or integrated gold bracelet, Patek Calatrava or Eclipse
would be the most common high end dress watches. Hi end collectors were those
who craze for Patek Philippe or Vacheron Constantin Perpetual Calendar.
Due to Globalization, fast food culture
promoting people’s fast pace and casual dress seems was the norm, the sport
watch was gradually became a hype since 2000 as office attire moved to smart
casual, no more suit and tire, people wear a tennis shoes going to work even
some of the salespersons. So dress watches are not as commonly used of sport
watch.
Future Trend
As for future trends 2023-2026, it's
difficult to predict with certainty, but some possibilities include the
integration of more advanced functions on sports watches, such as chronograph,
date, power reserve almost all are build with automatic winding. In addition,
there may be a trend towards more sustainable and eco-friendly materials used
in watch manufacturing for lighter weight, carbon composite and or Titanium,
silicon strap for extra wearing comfort.
For dress watches, the trend may be towards
more minimalist designs that emphasize simplicity and elegance. Those older
design with skeleton watch, special function of monophase or even tourbillon
may add on extra value of these dress watches.
So, what does the future look like? Though
prediction is always a delicate exercise, the enthusiasm doesn’t seem to be
slowing down. The trend back to smaller case sizes is inevitable and even the
battle between sports and dress watches might favour dress in the long term.
Neo-vintage watches from 1970-2010 will stand the test of time in these
scenarios.”
It is possible that the next generation of
collectors will see these neo-vintage models as true vintage, as time goes by.
However, they also have just enough elements from the modern era that they can
hopefully survive, and be enjoyed, for generations to come. We believe there will
always be a place for these neo-vintage classics we know and love today, as
they were born to be timeless and evergreen. Their beauty and elegance require
no context, and will continue to occupy the hearts and wrists of collectors for
many decades to come.”
I would think what if there is a new design
of a watch with dress look and sport function are between 35-39 be launched in
coming two three years, will that become a trend setter on both dress and sport
watch? I think the Vacheron Constantin 222 launch in 2022 Watches and Wonders
is one of them. As it carries the design specification of both sport and dress
watch.
It is an automatic, simple dial with date
think as 7 mm, while 7mm with size 36mm is the design factors of a dress watch?
A Typical extreme goes to lady’s Audemars Piguet AP 37350 CE Carolina Bucci
34mm Royal Oak… if your wrist is small, you can carry this. How about Patek?
Currently ten pieces of watch sold in Hong
Kong watch market will have about 8 pieces of Sport and two pieces of dress
watch and others, Sport watches are the main stream. However more people are
going to migrate into dress watches types as the main size focus is smaller
one, so dress watches are tend to be smaller. I don’t think a dress watch with
size 39-41mm means to me. That is not
the gold ratio for dress watch on your wrist. .
I am a big fan of dress watch since I was
young, well, I have sport watch of course but not as many as dress.
HK Snob
More younger Gen Z people like to go for cassette
tape as a hype. This is a cycle for audio, comparing with the watch cycle, what
we can see in coming in three years. This is my prediction.
Dress watch is coming back
More people is fed up with the sport
watches which are unobtainable at SPR at boutique, no matter Rolex Pepsi, AP Royal
Oak, VC Overseas or Patel’s Nautilus. They are free to choose something easier
to get. What is that This is where dress watches enter. Most of the top brands
have dress watches in their collection, but they have not received the same
attention and therefore, are trading below retail price. That does not mean
they have not been engineered as well, have worse movements or even aesthetics.
I believe this will be realized and you will see demand start to pick up.
The second train of thought is with bad economic
times, ‘stealth wealth’ becomes more desirable. What do I mean by this? Showing
your wealth becomes less favourable, whether it be around your colleagues or
friends, but also in public, However, most dress watch is made in precious metal
not steel. The future value is always there. This tends to be a hidden beauty
under the sleeve.
Smaller Watch size
Notably the recent Oscar event, there are
as many as 4 Cartier Tanks and 3 Omega Aqua Tera worn by the movie stars, don’t
mention Michelle Yeoh as she is a diehard fan of Richard Mille. These are trend
setter for smaller watches from size 34-38mm.
Most of the people does not like two-tone
from 2000-2022
However, we can see more younger people especially
lady going to two tone Rolex sport watches.
This tells me that somehow they have been
feeling bored on plain white steel watches.
In fact,I am happy to wear any dress
watches if they are slim, cute and rare of course.
If I could see say some of the good Cartier
Tanks with beautiful colourful dial, Skeleton Patek or Vacheron Constantin
dress watch with size 33-36mm, an AP Tourbillon or a Breguet Repeater in dress watch
format, I think I would like to buy if the price is affordable.
HK Snob
There are a few reasons why Rolex is often more popular and well-known among the general public compared to other high-end watch brands like Audemars Piguet (AP), Vacheron Constantin (VC), or Patek Philippe. One reason is that Rolex has invested heavily in marketing and brand recognition, making it a household name. Rolex has also been around for over a century and has a strong reputation for producing high-quality, reliable watches that can withstand extreme conditions. Additionally, Rolex has a wide range of styles and price points, making it accessible to a broader audience.
On the other hand, brands like AP, VC, and Patek Philippe are often more exclusive and cater to a niche market of collectors and enthusiasts. These brands may also have a more limited production, making their watches harder to find and more expensive. While these brands may be more prestigious and have a higher level of craftsmanship, they may not have the same level of brand recognition as Rolex. Ultimately, personal preferences and individual tastes play a significant role in which brand someone may prefer.
HK Snob
