Watch bubble bursts?

 Until the day I am writing, watch price still does not stop dropping.

Always if the market is bad, people is scary to buy and the whole dealer or seller or grey dealer may go for panic sale. so this avalanche effect would further spoil the market.

Johnson is facing large scale strike in UK led by the trainer worker across the country, they have been facing the work inflation over the last 40 years, on the other side of the continent, Biden is scratching his head what should he do on one side putting sanction on Shinjiang Uyghur products into USA and other side knee down begging to meet Xi. On the other side USA is sending his Japanese little brother to join with  Korea with the new president to give trouble to the Eastern water, don't forget Korea and Japan is never a friend for the last 100 years. so internally there are Okinawa citizens coming up protect again Fumio Kishida. and South Korean are not happy with Yoon Suk-yeoi's new move. 

Watch price will not be affected by world political situation, to certain extend is less as prominent as stock markets and consumer's products because it is classified as luxury product which is by right the last resort of monetary asylum.

Both Eastern and Western countries are in great trouble, and Russia does not seem to stop the war now as one way to change the world, and China and Russia seems getting closer...

anyway this is purely mu opinion on the world current situation, back to the watches.

I see trade between dealer on these watches

Patek Aquanaut 5167A is $595,000

AP 15500ST Royal Oak auto 41 mm white dial is $370,000

Daytona white 16500 is now $270,000

Comparing with 2021, it has been dropped over 20% on PP, AP and Rolex as an average, vintage even worse no one watch to buy 1680, 1665, 16520 at the market price unless very special watches.

What s next? 

Watch out for next two months.

HK Snob

Unit here is HKD

Courtesy picture from Italian Watch Spotter

AP House visit with my Royal Oak Ref 5402BA

This is my second time re-visited AP house, I had another experience. As for this time I feel I was being properly treated. I was meeting with a supervisor who actually I knew her when she was with other watch brands 5 years ago. 

She could say this is a 5402 A series! Surprisingly this is a difference between a supervisor and other staff. knowing me that I like vintage watch, she gave me two heavy books for my reference. Then she mentioned that this watch may be handled by la brassus factory for complete service. I saw a decent  service there, immediate i put down my another 1997 Offshores for completed service.

She told ne the service charges of the 5402 is about HK$100,000. Well, regarding the sentimental value and economical value of this watch, I said OK. 

The issue is 6 months, I told her I have no concern on the delivery time just not to further polish that watch and don't change the dial as this is the soul of this watch...

Well, to be a successfully company, customer handling is key... I think this time AP is doing the right thing.

HK Snob

When watch price will go up again?

Many people questions when watch price will go up again.

This is a big topic which is also a challenge o many of the financial guy for watch trades.

I think the basic need for watch to regain its price momentum is, no more war, no more crazy inflation at like US nowadays. 

Also people will have good political stability in all major Western and Eastern countries.

If US is still treating his up coming second strong country as an emerging target of conflict then this watch price will never go up again!

Uncle Sam should sit down talking to Chinese on how to create a better community of shared future of the mankind, instead of using sanction or military threat to stop other country's development and growth... stupid.

Anyway this is watch log not political forum. 

HK Snob

HK Watch Fever's Carousell site

 If you wan to see what product I am let go , you can follow my Carousell "@Paul_ip2020"

Thank you for your support.

HK Snob

Rolex Price keeps dropping

Rolex Daytona white 116500LN was selling at $460,000 beginning of the year, today they are worth about $280,000. 

Hulk Ref 116610LV NOS was $280,000 and now it is about $200,000.

Hulk used one with Ref 116610LV is now $140,000 which is 30% lower than January 2022.

What is Patek and AP price, well, they are also affected too.

Many people ask me when the price will be up again?

I think it depends when the Russia-Ukraine war will come to an end.

And COVID is being not an issues in Asia, the economy will be pushed up and people will be having their money released for spending.

take for an example, Hong Kong, it is the place we are looking for cancelling the 7 days quarantine after coming back Hong Kong. then the whole Asian economy will be boosted like a Viagra to an horny old man.

I am expecting by end July the Russia Ukraine war shall come to a peace, I pray.

HK Snob

A visit to AP house with my Royal Oak 5402ba Jumbo

 After I made an appointment to AP house, I went with this Royal Oak 5402ba to see a young lady there at 5pm on 29 May 2022.  I was intended to overhaul the movement and change a new gasket only. She told me the watch is old and she had to find out their record, she had never seen this watch in he life. Well, I told her this is 5402, the first Royal Oak that changed the destiny of the Audemars Piguet against the Quartz crisis. She went to other area likely talking to some other staff three times, after 30 minutes and told me there there may have no spare parts for this old watch, And they need 6 months to do the job as AP is busy. Well, I told her what parts? She said spare part! I told her Audemars Piguet is supposed the No. 3 high end watch house in Switzerland after Patek Philippe and Vacheron Constantin... How come no spare?
Patek Philippe's CEO Thierry Stern had once mentioned that whatever Patek Philippe watch even back to 19 Century they still can provide spare part for it. I don't  blame her as she may be too new in her job, she is young about 28 wearing an AP white gold Perpetual Calendar watch worth HK$600,000 as she told me during the chatting. She asked me if I want to change a new dial, (how come she know that AP does still have the dial?) I said No, I need to keep the original dial. She asked if I need to polish the case and bracelet, I told her no, I wanted to keep the original condition of the watch. Preferably no polishing. 

She said, that watch can not be polished anymore as it is too thin already! (I told myself really too thin to polish? How much do you need to polish? 0.005mm? 0.02mm? 0.2mm?

OK after I saw the document , the description was NXX  (XX is my watch S/N, it should read No XX on the back of my watch. on the Watch Description; it was written "39mm gold watch with bracelet. I told her should be "Royal Oak 5402 39mm with bracelet... : it too late as it was 5;55, 5 minutes before they closed. So I told her well, I would like to take it back and make another appointment for visit again.

That was a wonder experience, i feel a bit hesitate to send the watch to AP House to overhaul. But After all who can do it for me? Private watch smith I guess. But I do like to send it to AP Switzerland for best attention on it.

Aftermath

I remembered I was invited to join a new watch fair at Audemars Piguet IFC back in 2018, And I saw a 5402 Royal Oak in yellow gold was housed inside a window box for display. I talked to one of the VPs from Switzerland who told be me still have three NOS (new old stock) JLC 2121 movement under his own possession. This is the movement being used inside the 5402. The 2121 movement is very reliable and one of the best movements in the 70s. Later in 1976, Patek Philippe also took the same movement to be housed in their legendary watch "The Nautilus 3700". I don't know what spare they don't have again,. this puzzled me until now...

Anyway I shall have another appointment in AP House again soon... let's see if that could be another wonder experience for me.

HK Snob

The new Philippine President Ferdinand "Bongbong" Marcos Jr.,

To the President of the Philippines, Ferdinand "Bongbong" Marcos Jr.,                           

First of all, Congratulations of your success by the majority of the wills of the People of the Philippines; you won 31.6 million votes or 58.8% of the total, making you the first president in decades to secure a mandate from a majority of the electorate.

You will be able to lead the country for another prosperity of 5 years and more years to come under your great leadership. 

With my warmest regards and wish you all the best.

Paul Ip

What does this AP Royal Oak worth?

 An original water colour sketch of a Royal Oak by Gerald Genta in 1972 was just sold with HK$4m in a recent auction, I don't know one of the first 100 pieces of the actual Audemars Piguet Royal Oak in solid 18KT gold would worth?

HK Snob

Watch consignment for sale

Only serious consignments are welcome.

Require HKD$1,000 deposit, returned after a one-month selling period.

Can be extended for free or when the watch is sold.

Exclusive selling rights.

HK Snob

Common response of "no-buy" from client

With these communications, more or less 80% your customer will not buy.

1. Can I have more picture?

2. Can i see the box also, I said, allow me 1-2 days to get it and send you.

He said, no hurry!

3. Quoted price is HK$100,000., he can can be lowered a bit?

If your new quote is HK$99,000 or HK$80,000, he will not buy 

4. Where is the original warranty paper?

5. Thanks!

6. OK good, give me two days to think about it!

7. What is the best price for me??

HK Snob

這一些對答有80% 他吾會買的

 這一些對答有80% 他吾會買的。

1.有冇多一些相片看看，看完説謝謝。

2.可否比個盒我看看。我説過二天拿出來比你看，他說.好的不急的！   

3.原價十萬，他問可以平多一些嗎？

你如果覆價佢九萬九或者八萬。佢都吾買的！

4.為什麼無原來出世紙的？

5.謝謝！

6.好的.比我考慮二天！

7. 最平可以幾多錢?

HK Snob

Any surprise on Watches & Wonders 2022?

What is the mostly discussed topics on W & W 2022?

Vacheron Constantin 222 retro. It is an awesome piece as a replica as of the one introduced in 1977 as a 222th anniversary of the Vacheron Constantin. It has no second hand, 37mmin diameter, the size that makes many people feel questionable small, why ? Yes 37mm, as Vacheron Constantin is taking a lead for going smaller watches. in 1977 , there were 100 pieces of solid gold 222 made, plus another 400 stainless steel. Those are all collectible item now. 

Audemars Piguet is also introducing a “34mm Royal Oak” watch this year. It should be a right size ofor ladies.

Rolex declared to discontinue the three OP41 Tiffany Blue, Coral Red and Yellow from the list.

Reason unknown, but I don’t think these OP41 Tiffany blue will be an evergreen item on Chrono24, let’s watch for a year.

Rolex introduced a Left hand version of GMT Master II, even the date window goes Left! It’s not right!

Patek Philippe has no surprise at all.

The rest of other brands are just so so…

This 2022 watch year is not as excited as 2021, probably COVID-19 had an impact even on launching new design of watches…

HK Snob

Luxury watch is the latest currency

 Aftermath of US EU countries with all-round sanctions including German agricultural seeds for Russia.

Chinese are learn to keep physical goods and not paper money, thought there is not official announcement on this but we can feel that people of China are awakened.  There will be a huge round of inflation as the US, Japan, UK, Sweden, etc, are printing more and more money.  So the Chinese are planning not to accept USD but only their RMB for payments.

 When the U.S. COVID-19 epidemic broke out and there was no effective preventive measures and control for a long time…  the country’s populations were isolated, production stagnated, and stocks of supplies quickly dwindled, and the Federal Reserve desperately cut interest rates to stimulate the economy including printing bank note for the so-called quantitate ease. 

The Euro, the US dollar, the British pound, and the Swiss franc are all such currencies and will gradually become useless paper.  When the country’s inventory is extremely running low and scarce.         Everyone understands that whoever exchanges real physical things for these spirit money is insane.

Just within this quarter, the United States has issued an additional 1.9 trillion dollars, and the Japan also printed a large amount of money. Banknote becomes as cheap as toilet paper or spirit money.

Many people including Eastern Europe as majority understands that in any country where the epidemic is not under control, they will no longer exchange physical objects for foreign currency.

Many people are using watches as for their latest tool for money laundry. As anywhere anytime you can cash and there is no customs restriction when you travel anywhere in the world.

We have taken this action, and it is estimated that Vietnam, India, Malaysia, Indonesia other than China and other producing countries will also adopt similar "CLOSE DOOR" measures.

In view of this, I think many of the people will use their extra money buying/selling luxury watches as an investment fortress for the reasons:

1.       Easy to cash

2.       As an alternate security of their properties other than Bitcoins, NFT

3.       Easy to move around across countries

4.       No Lawyers service charges, no commission fee

5.       The higher price of the watch the higher the demand

6.       The Big Three, Plus RM and Rolex

 

Why not? As these are the new currency now.

 

HK Snob

Trend of smaller watch

The trend for slimmer and smaller diameter watches started 2017, Why? Larger watch carries more space and dimension, larger watch tends to be more “Empty” whereas smaller watch tends to look for “Refined” and packed with feature.. Large watches have a lot of empty space to deal with, both on the case and dial. Taller, thicker watches tend to have cases that feel slab-sided, while watches large in diameter often have dials with an overabundance of negative space, making the watch feel empty and chopper-board like. When a case is unnecessarily beefed up in size simply to suit consumer demands, these design missteps become all the more inordinate.

On the contrary, smaller watches tend to feel more refined and packed with features. Watches that are gratuitously big don’t feel as purposefully made; heaven, making a big watch is relatively easy. But small watches require more planning and working within more constraints. Complex movements need to be engineered to be slim and compact. Cases need to be thin but still strong enough to resist shocks, deformation and water resistant. Tolerances between the dial, gasket, base metal, dial, hands gears, and crystal need to be as tight as possible.

A substantially-sized watch is an ever-present weight upon your wrist, a truly comfortable watch is one that feels like feather on your wrist. Thinner, smaller watches are just inherently lighter by virtue of using less material. Further, if your wrist shape is more round than it is flat, a smaller diameter watch will sit more flush with your wrist. I wonder who could wear a Rolex Platinum Daytona all days, you know its weight is like a small hammer.

Many people being brainwashed by fashion fascism dictating huge clocks? Why is it that men’s clothes have been getting tighter and skinnier, like G2000’s popular slim fit shirts with narrow shoulders and slim trousers but at the same time men’s watches grew bigger and fatter? A weird and contradictory development. we call it the terror of fashion, that people without taste follow blindly. Of course if you are 6 feet tall, it is not in proportion to wear a 36mm Sport watch (Rolex new Explorer I)

My advices are to buy whatever you like regardless of size. And to consider the smallness. In fact, if recent industry trends are any indicator, more small watches are on the way.

Look at these new launched models…

Vacheron Constantin introduced 37mm Overseas, they are not made unisex not just for ladies and also for men who appreciate smaller watches they intend to find in the market. 

Paneria introduced a smaller diameter of 38 mm watches for lady, and they don't have to put a 44mm watch on their wrist, I think that is a decent size to wear.

Omega also launch an Aqua Tera 5 colourful watches with 38mm in this year.

Tudor’s downsized Black Bay Fifty-Eight is a prominent example in dive watch form, coming in at 39mm.

Oris, meanwhile, produced a 36mm version of both its Divers Sixty-Five and Big Crown Pointer Date.

In W & W 2022, Audemars Piguet launched a 34mm Royal Oak for lady, Yes 34mm!

The new Super hot Vacheron Constantin 222, it is 37mm!

HK Snob

Picture: AP latest 34mm Royal Oak

Watch Buyers in Hong Kong

 

Watch Buying behavior in Hong Kong

We have been numerously trade with many watch buyers

There are many weird behaviors that I can’t figure out why.

1.       Cheapo Tudor 1970 Day Date selling HK$20,000.

Buyer ask why there is no original buckle, is the lume still there? Well, this is 70’s how come to have working lume?

I told him to study a bit first before buying watch, any watch... 

2.     My partner one is real funny as he fed up with some of the question of the buyer asking why do you sell your watch… note his reply: he said "Well, I am sorry that all my family members died because of COVID-19, and I need money to arrange their funerals…” after he showed me the message I laughed for 15 minutes.

3.       Selling  a Montblanc  Limited fountain pen, Semiramis at Carousell, the buyer ask what nib size, I told her M, then she keep quiet… after two days, I told her what is her decision, she wanted F nib, well, I told her I have also F nib for the same pen. Then she keeps quiet forever…

4.       Most of the buyers care about price and price only. When there is no paper, she will ask why no paper, when there is paper, they will ask why no green tag, when there is green tag, they will ask why no original box… well, when we have real full set, then they can’t afford the price.

5.       When price is agreed, then we talk about trade date and time, just one hour before the trade time, I was hurried back home ready to go to buy the Green dial Tudor, he whatsapped me saying ”oh, this green dial Tudor is so beautiful, I have decided not selling at this price!”  LOL.

6.       People made a counter offer my Vacheron Constantin solid gold Gen 1 chronograph 50% of my listed price HK$150,000 in 2020. Well, I did not sell it out, and one close friend who bought from me at HK$155,000. Now the same watch is selling almost $400,000 in Chrono24.

7.       When there was a guy asking how about to Rolex Service center to authenticate the new watch Submariner 116613LN 2020 watch, I used not go to Rolex for such thing, but this time I told him “OK” but he kept quiet…?

8.       There is one chap who confirmed to buy the Rolex 2300 yesterday and saying that we shall trade by 1400 next day, but in the next morning… he said he passed as he think the price was too expensive!

9.       When the Daytona was selling US$30,000, people said so expensive. After one year, it was selling US$45,000, he said price is insane, after another 6 months the price is US$50,000.

He says price is crazy, well, with this attitude, he probably can’t buy any Daytona. He told me one day Rolex bubble will burst. Yes one day… when? I heard about Rolex bubble burst 15 year ago. LOL 

This is my personal watch trade experience, the article is not meant to pin point anyone.

HK Snob

Vacheron Constantin Overseas is the next hit

                                

The market has gone insane about Patek Philippe’s Nautilus, and the already high prices of Audemars Piguet’s Royal Oak will skyrocket in a matter of a matter of two years even amidst of COVID-19

The “Holy Trinity” of horology is composed of Patek, Audemars and Vacheron Constantin. What’s VC answer to its mainstream cousins?

During the “Japan quartz crisis”, Audemars Piguet introduced a premium stainless steel watch, creating the first modern luxury sport watch, it created the idea of paying for a luxury item of a steel watch, not necessarily for the intrinsic value of the object.

Noticed popularity that AP was gaining with its new Royal Oak, Patek Philippe seeked the same designer, Gerald Genta, to create Patek’s Nautilus.

What was Vacheron Constantin doing, being the oldest watch maker in current production?

Vacheron Constantin followed Patek, decided to introduce a modern sports watch. They hired a young designer named Jorg Hysek and requested him to create a watch in line with the Royal Oak and the Nautilus.

In 1977, the Vacheron Constantin 222 was born. 222 is the anniversary of the birth of the oldest Maison in Switzerland in 1977.

The beautiful Hysek’s design incorporates all the esthetic details that were popular in the 70s such as sharp angles, integrated bracelet and a distinctive bezel. The caliber inside was the thin VC1120 the same movement was being used in the Royal Oak and Nautilus, based on a Jaeger LeCoulte design.

It was produced in much smaller quantities that its cousins, however, it was available in a wide range of materials and sizes, from stainless steel to gold, from 25 to 37 mm. A square version was available too.

After some short experiments with the “333” and the “Phidias", two very 90s looking watches that allowed Vacheron to experiment some innovations, the brand was ready to unveil its watch for the new millennium.

The Overseas

Designed by Vincent Kaufmann and Dino Modolo in 1996, the “Gen. 1 Overseas” was released and immediately crowned as the heir of the 222. The nautical theme, which was at the base of the Royal Oak and the Nautilus, is now fully embodied.

Very discreet at 37 mm, Model 42042 with iconic bezel is intended to remind the Maltese cross, VC’s logo. The overall look of the Overseas immediately conquered the heart of many watch enthusiasts, looking to acquire a true sports watch, paired with the elegance and artisanal craftsmanship typically from Vacheron Constantin. This was immediately recognized to be one of the most beautiful and refined sports watches available.

The Overseas Gen. 1 was redesigned in 2004, to create the “Gen. 2”, with the intent of creating a much sturdy watch, capable to withstand every adventure.

The case was bulked up to a larger 42 mm as in the hype for bigger case and a new, less delicate, bracelet was introduced. This bracelet reminding of a half Maltese cross, is now an icon of the Overseas.

In 2016, introducing the “Gen. 3”. The general design was modernized with softer lines: the eight notches of the bezel were reduced to six, the hands were slimmed down and the solid case back was switched in favor of a sapphire case back. This allows the owner to admire the magnificent movement, powered by a solid 22Kt gold engraved rotor.

A system of quick interchangeable straps allows to switch between a stainless steel bracelet, a leather strap and a rubber strap without the need for tools, providing incredible versatility for the owner.

The wide variety of complications, from chronographs to perpetual calendars, is masterfully executed, creating one of the most refined and elegant sport watches ever.

The Overseas is ready to hit?

For over the last ten years, the Vacheron Constantin Overseas was overshadowed by it more mainstream cousins, the Royal Oak and the Nautilus. While the Reissue 222 in 2022 has now reached a cult-like status, being rightfully crowned as a 80s icon, the Overseas is just beginning its rise.

In 2019 Oversea Gen. 1 automatic watch blue dial was as little as HK$80,000, now we can see Chrono24 is selling as high as HK$240,000. That is 3X higher in 3 years.

In my humble opinion. The top tier quality of the masterpiece with so many unique iconic feature on one single watch. The Overseas is the watch gaining momentum. No doubts.

HK Snob

Picture top down

1st picture :VC ad on 222 in the 70s

2nd and 4th Picture : VC 222 with special gold inlay with diamond.

6th and 7th picture: VC Overseas Gen. 1 in blue Ref 42042 37mm.