Buying Behaviour

When Williams-Sonoma introduced bread machines, sales were slow. When they added a “deluxe” version that was 50% more expensive, the original started flying off the shelves; the first bread machine now appeared to be a bargain.

iPhone high end version and lower version is actually similar in hardware but matter of a software to limit the available functions and set a different marketing price for what they want to get main profit margin they expect.

Tversky and Kahneman conducted the following experiment: when contemplating the purchase of a $25 pen, the majority of subjects would drive to another store 15 minutes away to save $7. When contemplating the purchase of a $455 suit, the majority of subjects would not drive to another store 15 minutes away to save $7. The amount saved and time involved are the same, but people make very different choices. Hong Kong People are known to be good at this practice… Searching in internet, Carousell, facebook Chrono24 for the lowest offers and then they select the one they want to approach.

Salvador Assael, the Pearl King, single-handedly created the market for black pearls, which were unknown in the industry before 1973. His first attempt to market the pearls was an utter failure – he didn’t sell a single pearl! So, he went to his friend Harry Winston, and had Winston put them in the window of his 5th Avenue store with an outrageous price tag attached. Then he ran full page ads in glossy magazines with black pearls next to diamonds, rubies, and emeralds. Soon, black pearls were considered precious. In short, marketing is needed for making luxury items sales possible. 

Setting a price

Every item has a price. I purposely don’t want to put an over high price tag and wait for negotiation, and I think wise buyer know the real price and low bailer will be filtered away by doing this. I think negotiation is not my style, and if one day this is likes some supermarket sales tricks buy one get one free, you had better beware on the luxury watch you bought in this offer.

HK Snob

What is the watches I should consider to buy today?

 

What is the best watch that I should consider to buy today?

There is no definite answer on it as being a watch is being used as a man's accessory. Not an investment item, well we cannot say watch investment, but in other terms, it may say alternatively while a way to enjoy your watch at same time you feel like its value is not losing too much.

From my experience there is what I interpret.

Scarcity and “beautiful” is always one of the two major key factors for it long terms value to be appreciated.

Scarcity means that is was made in small number, or it was purposely made in small number.

Remember the logic, when you buy the watch that may be already made in a lot in production, so in future that may be also a lot available the value will not appreciate too much.

The one we used to be “beautiful’ is somewhat hard to say, aesthetic is quite abstract and that also involve people influence such as what is the hype in that period of time. Remember no one wanted to buy Daytona in 80’s. and that time you can get it easier with discount. Now Daytona is what most sought after sport watch from Rolex. So if you buy Daytona 20 years ago. It will be a good return today.

Remember people did not like big watch in the 80’s they can take 34mm Rolex at most by that time and not so many people buy Rolex 36mm in that time for Date Just, now we have Date Just, Date Day of 41mm and recently it is reduced to 40mm which is ore accepted by most of the end users.

What is the best Rolex watch that we should keep an eye on?

Oyster Perpetual Series

There are a series of colour with No.1 hot is Tiffany Blue, with 126000 36mm SRP $46,400 now it worth more than $110,000 the large version of 41 mm Ref 114300 is even selling $140,000 ! 

Next is Pink, green, Red, Orange, yellow, black and silver. Black and silver is not hot at all. And Pink’s price is the second runner up after Tiffany Blue, But I am eye on the RED, as the RED is exactly the China national flag RED, if this is becoming one day the preferred watch of the Chinese.. This may flip 4X or more. Of course this is my pure guess and I think there isn’t no such possibility. Buying for speculation.

GMT Master Series

There is one watch that I think it matches the two major key factors for price appreciation, the 126710BLRO in Meteorite dial, that is a rare piece and was selling like SRP $306,000 in 2020 and I speculate that this watch will fly 2X in two years. And 4X in 6 years. The reason is that Rolex is seldom using meteorite as the dial material, only a few pieces were using this material to make the dial such as Daytona, Day Date and this first time on GMT Master II.

How about the third one?

Sea Dweller 126000- No as it is under production.

Starbucks 126610LV – NO, just been launched in Sept 2020.

Hulk 116610LV – No, as too many had been made in the past 11 years.

Daytona 116500 White – yes or no, as this current price has been up 2.5X already, room for further going up is lean, EXCEPT they are going to discontinue it by 2021…. So if we can get one below $220,000 within 2021 should be good!

I think we should go for it.

Any other more??

Let  me think of it.

HK Snob

Two Vacheron Constantin watches Tourbillon and GMT

These are two of the Vacheron Constantin, the first one is Patrimony Tourbillon manual winding with 7 days power reserve watches with crystal bottom cover that we can see through the beautiful movement.

Second one is brand new world time on Overseas which is neither too plain nor too crowded on the dial design. a low profile Overseas watch with 41mm.

These are two watches that may capture your attention. 

If you are eager to take them home, do contact me.

HK Snob

 

The Top 4 most sought after Rolex models

 The top 4 Most sought after Rolex

ROLEX DAYTONA STEEL 116500LN

During the 1970s to 1990s, the Daytona wasn’t sough-after at all.

The situation changed in 2000 when Rolex introduced its own movement, after discontinued model 16520 by 1999 creating a shortage on the steel versions of this model. The steel Daytona has been a hot commodity since the introduction of the in-house calibre 4130.

By 2016, the new Panda look ceramic LN version changed the situation, with this vintage look plus modern patent design built in, the New Daytona is a functional daily work horse for most of the younger generations. Plus the supply is in little number such as one or two in the individual AD chain a quarter.

With SRP USD 12,400, the dealer is flipping it at USD 34,000 today. 

ROLEX GMT “BATMAN” 116710BLNR and “PEPSI” 126710BLRO and

The GMT being the major 4 columns for Rolex sport watches since it was introduced in 1954. The current collection is based on the evolution launched in 2005 with the ref. 116718LN, comprising a redesigned case, maxi dials and a ceramic bezel for the first time of Rolex. Later the steel/black dial 116713LN tow tone model would follow. Still the public is not well taking these pieces as some of the most sought after Rolex until the two-tone, blue-and-black “Batman” 116710BLNR model appeared in 2013, which started to create fame around the GMT even including those vintage GMT 1675, 16710, 16760, 16750. Still I was able to get Batman with less 5% at AD by 2014. After 2015-6 sorry, price was jumping up from USD 8,600 to USD 11,540, then to USD 14,000 in 2018.

By 7 April, Rolex announced the launch if “Batman Return” with Oyster Bracelet

126710BLNR… I think Batgirl price will adjust and Batman Return will be hot again. As Most of people think that a Sport Rolex GNMT should come with Oyster Bracelet rather than a Jubilee bracelet. 

In 2015, Rolex reintroduced the Pepsi, ref 116719BLRO, a white gold version with red-and-blue bezel, faithful to the original 1954 version… it was selling $28,200 at second hand market and I had sold two to one CX and one PAL pilots in 2016 at Makati.

Rolex may feel bad as most people may expect a cheaper steel version…You got it… Baselworld 2018 saw the launch of the 126xxx series, with a new movement and mainly, the return of the Pepsi bezel on a steel watch and the arrival of the Jubilee bracelet on the GMT. No need to say, success was immediate, demand became crazy… prices too at USD 20,230 in the grey dealer when first launched into Hong Kong. 

Up to now after its introduction, the Steel Pepsi 126710BLRO is still highly sought-after, just like any steel model in the GMT line (including the older 116710LN, which are now discontinued but still able to get over retail). While the SRP is EUR 8,500 or USD 9,250, prices on the second-hand market are about EUR 17,000/ USD 18,500, again a 100% premium over retail. 

ROLEX GMT “BATgirl” 126710BLNR

Baselworld 2018, Rolex announced that the entire collection will feature two-tone bezels, thus discontinuing the LN model but updated the blue-black version BLNR, a watch nicknamed “Batgirl”. The concept was the same as with the Pepsi: new movement, new ref. number in 12xxxx, new Jubilee bracelet. And the demand for this version immediately rose, in parallel with the demand for the Pepsi. 

Reality: Just like the BLRO version, this “Batgirl” BLNR set a SRP EUR 8,500/USD 9,250. The price on the second-hand market is high, at around EUR 15,500/USD 17,300 – a bit under the Pepsi, confirming that the blue-red model is the definitive model. 

ROLEX SUBMARINER “HULK” 116610LV

Submariner is the most iconic watch in the industry.

There are multiple versions including steel, two tone, yellow gold or white gold.

Date and no date version 114060.

These three version black 116610LN date and Green 116610LV and 114060 black no date are rarely be found at retailers. 

As of today Hulk is discontinued so price is USD 19,000

Submariner new 41mm 126610LN is USD 13,460

Submariner new 41mm no date is USD 12,100 

Under Pandemic COVID-19, many people are curious why the real estate price and Rolex is never come down? Well, someone in the other side of the word is printing money at highest speed possible on the De La Rue Machines. Money is becoming less valued today as of Yesterday.

What is the best thing to buy with this money? Besides, those people buying these Rolex is not me or someone, it the top 1.5% richest people in the world. 

Model Ref

Submariner Black 40mm discon 116610LN

Submariner Black 40 mm no date discon. 114060

Submariner Hulk 40 mm HULK 116610LV

Submariner Black 41 mm new 126610LN

Submariner Black 41 mm no date 126610LN

Submariner Black with green Bezel “Starbucks” 1266110LV 

GMT Green pointer discon 116710LN

GMT Batman Blue black with oyster bracelet discon116710BLNR

GMT Pepsi Red Blue with Jubilee Bracelet 126710BLRO

GMT Batgirl blue black 126710BLNR

GMT Batman Return blue black 126710BLNR 

HK Snob

Is there better choice other than Rolex?

     We can see over the last three decades, Rolex is having certain advantages:
1.     Being recognized easily by majority of people
2.      Enter to Luxury watch category after Patek Philippe,  Vacheron Constantin, Audemars Piguet,  A Lange, Paneria, Richard Mille, FP Journe…
3.       Demand is high so the long term value is there, limited to certain models
4.       It is reliable.
5.       What else? 
So how about its disadvantages
1.      Rolex is Lazy to take a major change in design.
They launch a new sub model with change of colour of dial, material of bezel, design of bracelet.
In 2014 September, Rolex launched the Batman 116710BLNR with Blue black bezel with Oyster bracelet, immediately created a lot of instant demad. By 2018 they introduced the Batgirl 126710BLNR with same blue black bezel with Jubilee Bracelet. Now after three years the Batman Comes back, a same design of Barman 2014 launched under model number 126710BLNR using new movement on oyster bracelet.
So what is the big deal? You’d never know what colour and combination they would introduce in 2022. 
2.       Rolex charges too much on the branding than the quality nowadays comparing with 20 years ago. 
3.       Rolex is a Mass-market product making 800,000 pieces a year. They produce in huge volume per years, equivalent to 3 times of the year production of all Patek Phillippe, Audemars Piguet, Vacheron Constantin, Richard Mille, A Lange, FP Journe…added up together. Seriously a mass production item.
4.       Rolex are being aggressively counterfeited all over the world.
Someone had said in the world 90% of the watches Rolex seen in the street is fakes, I think that is a right statement.
So yours Rolex may be also spotted as an Fake watch in certain people's eyes.
5.       Dress watch SRP price has been triple over the twenty five years starting at US$20,000 now.
Rolex used to make a few pieces of Cellini which were beautifully small and elegant even some of them were made with Onyx and or Lapis on the dial, that was about HK$20,000 back then, but now the entry level of Cellini is HK$150,000 using ordinary printing dial, and nothing special to me. 
6.      Vintage Rolex is tricky
For those who ha been addicted into VR (Vintage Rolex) knows that he has to study a lot on the model breakdown variety and combination of the Rolex dial, case bezel and bracelet you have is matching the S/N of the watch or not? There is a single stain or two on the lume may reduce 15% of the value? If there is hairline scratch on the dial may reduce 30% of the Watch total value. If there is a service dial, 50% the value of that watch value will be gone, or even no one wants to buy from you.
That is before you open the case, after open you may find more surprise? So the real good VR may worth a lot a there are too many Frankenwatch VR on Earth, today you are happy with your VR known to be perfect with correct period. You are lucky.
I am collecting 30 years of Rolex and I feel scary to buy sometimes.. even the trust seller may not be aware the full details and story of his article before selling you, lucky him and unlucky you bought that watch and you may not sleep all the days of the year. In In short, I had talked to myself why Rolex?Well, friend knows me I had almost sold out all my Rolex in 2020, now leave a few pieces which are  what I really like. And I had switching to my old favourite watches.  In fact there are more better choice I should say other than Rolex.  Patek Nautilus Calatrava of the 70, Royal Oaks, Reverso, Cartier Tank Americaine,  Tudor BB58, Panerai, Older Cellini, Vacheron Constantin dress watch…etc. 

I wear what I really like and I don’t need to express to anybody by wearing a Rolex.

HK Snob

Watch Sales in Hong Kong 1H 2021

Today there are a lot of transactions about Rolex watches are focused 90% on new watches and 10% only on vintage, which loosely refers to watches 25 years or older. 

There are reasons that too risky to buy those vintage as there are too much knowledge you need to or you will lose in the game buying some Frankenwatch or low valued stuff you paid with high premium. 

I would rather spend effort on those neo-vintage such as those watches made between year 1998 to 2008 Because they seem not too old to be vintage, not too young to be modern. However over the years I see that more people will go to these watches as they are considered less in number of units available, not necessary to go for Rolex authentication, future value will be ensured to be promising.

Examples are  Daytona 116520 P series white dial, 116520 A series black dial. Patrizzi Daytona W series, Kermit submariner 16610LV, Sea dweller 116600, Single Red MK I 126600 etc...

My ten cents comment!

How about your suggestion?

HK Snob

 

Daytona price seen down fall a lot today!

These few days we have seen a  significant downfall of Daytona white steel (116500LN) price. It is from last week's  $270,000 to today's $255,000. And there is real transaction.

Many potential Daytona buyer welcome seeing this signs for price going down where they can possibly buy one.

Some even expect that the price will go down further same as last December 's $210,000.

Well, that is still 2X the price of AD's SRP...

What do you think its price will be in May 2021?'

HK Snob

Daytona Price drops in these ten days

 Daytona price is first seen drop after all these years of going up.

It was shocking high price before Watches and Wonders held in 7 April as people kept speculating the discontinuing of Daytona 116500LN. However, they found 13 of models gone but added in 16 new models. The steel King White 116500LN is still existing. Dealers who has stocked 10 or 50 pieces  started to feel uncomfortable. These few days we see a price drop from last week’s  $290,000 to today’s $270,000

How about tomorrow, we know not... the one who bought last week would definitely not willing to see the price drop again. And who has prepared money is now waiting to see when he should move in buying!

Units are in HKD

HK Snob

UNDONE X POPEYE Crossover box set LE 50 sets

 

UNDONE has been doing on his Popeye partnership, creating an exclusive limited edition of 50 sets box set.

This consists of three watches representing Sailor Popeye, his beloved Olive Oyl and his burly nemesis Brutus (or Bruto).

Five of these are available for purchase exclusively to aBlogtoWatch community member via a unique sign-up link.

Another five set goes to me via good friend of  UNDONE executive.

However all 4 sets are allocated to friends of mine in Hong Kong, USA and Philippines.

They are having number 01/50, 08/50, 18/50, 28/50 and 33/50.

If you like to get one of these, do contact me, as far as I know there may be 1-2 sets are available.

Price is USD$1,499 a set.

HK Snob

How many Nautilus 5711 you think Hong Kong AD could possible get in year 2021

 

According to Swiss watches export data. there were 53,000 Patek Philippe watches made in 2020.

There are 8 series

Grand complication (35)

Complications (40)

Calatrava (18)

Gondolo (7)

Golden Eclipse (2)

Nautilus (30)

Aquanaut (10)

Twenty 4  (12)

Total there are 154 models Patek Philippe shipping into our hands through 378 distributor and boutiques in the world, where as there are 11 authorized dealers in Hong Kong,

I make is simple to even distribute the total number into model and AD in Hong Kong.

We gee het this number

Each model carries 53,000/154, that is 10,324 watches

And there is only two 5711 models in Nautilus series, that is 10,324 x2/30, that is 688 watches

These 688 watches will be distributed, again I make it even destitution to 11 Distributors in Hong Kong.

That is 688X11/378, that is 20 pieces

From these, I derive from the numbers that we should have more or less 20 pieces of Nautilus 5711 a year in Hong Kong.

Well, may be more if Patek think that they should give more to the thirsty Hong Kong Patek fans.

HK Snob

What is new on Watch and Wonders on 7 April

What is new in tomorrow’s Watch and Wonders in Switzerland?

There is a lot of guess and speculation on what is new in tomorrow announcement on what is news for Watches…

As for example, there is a lot of proven or solid insider’s leaks on Rolex. 

But here I guess this is it for Rolex

1.       Daytona 116500 steel will be continued, price will be more or less maintained won’t drop a lot.

2.       There shall have Oyster bracelet for Batman in new series 126710BLNR and Pepsi 126710-BLRO

3.       There is new Explorer II but I believe there is no surprise, may be 41`mm only, probably with ceramic Bezel

4.       New Explorer I in steel and two tone with 36mm dia.

5.       How about others, I don’t know. Let’s see tomorrow

HK Snob

Evergreen container ship grounded at Suez Canal

 This is an accident that wind could cause, likely the wind could blow a world most powerful man three times down on staircases...

Can't underestimate the power of wind...

We can't under estimate the consequence could cause, the shipping fleet will lose USD$7B a days as hundred of vessels can't get passed the Suez Canal, they have to burn more fuel 20-30 tones a day to go through Cape Town with additional two weeks delays on all goods.

This is a kind of mocking at some of the small individuals that are still hoping to get a Daytona steel white at SRP at AD. I think you may wait for years, well some of us get it... guess they have bought so many slow moving watches such as  Date Just or dozen of Tudor before get one of his desired watch at SRP, eventually the money spent is more or less the same of even more. But he can show off saying that he is real SVIP on fb and or IG that he is one of the very few who can get Daytona at SRP... This is great happiness too for them.

Well, I have new interpretation on AD, its "After Death" for Daytona, not "Authorized Dealer". if my son may get one after I am gone... but by that time, the model has been discontinued! Sad!

Back to the huge Sampan that blocks across the canal, it may take 1 month to be clear.... Sad too

Aftermath it was clear for the Suez Canal with Evergreen vessel afloated today.

HK Snob

Patek's new guideline in Extracts of Archives

After 1 Apr, the price for an Extract of Archive will be CHF500

I think tomorrow will have more people going to Patek applying tor their Attracts.

 Take note,  watch sold up to 1989 will be served, if you want to get an extract, go before the price changes.

HK Snob

 

UNDONE x Popeye & Friends Limited Edition Boxset

 如果你有返咁上下年紀,七八十年代最流行嘅卡通片Popeye , I am the sailor man 好流行喎，我諗影響你好多了因為尤其是細粒嘅男兒都希望食咗大力菜之後可以切低果D大隻佬！好似我咁，三兩招切低對手。但係找不到真的大力菜 😂  

今次Undone 出咗款新嘅玩意:-

整套三隻錶。

值得擁有, 因為限量只有50 套！

兩隻大莊都係自動肉44小時儲時能量，女裝係石英肉，四月份推出。

Orecleoftime.com 已經訂了五套。

我今日一口氣五分鐘內已經訂了五套，留低一套比自己，其他四套已經名花有主！Undone 的老闆又比VIP 留咗D幸運號碼。

價錢是$1,499.00

HK Snob

The jewels of your watch

 La Pierrette is a small great company making only one product, the Rubies for Swiss watches. Rubies are jewel bearing for precision tiny gear wheels inside a watch to reduce friction and hence to maintain good time keeping ability. This company is owned by Patek Philippe, Rolex and Richemont group, located in Vallee de Jous in Switzerland, having only 120 staff occupying 88,700 sq. foot factory space. Supplying 40-50 millions of rubies a year that could possibly be contained in in 2-3 1.5L jars! Each of the rubies or jewels are manufactured within precision of 2-3 microns.

Types of jewels in a watch

1. Hole jewel

2. Cap jewel

3. Pallet jewel

4. Roller jewel

Colour of jewel 

99% watch jewels is fuchsia, but RM is using black as they are more likely matching the skeleton movement design to look cool!  La Pierette had started this manufacturing in 1915... well that company can supply the rubies for these companies yearly consumption: Patek Philippe, Vacheron Constantin, Audemars Piguet, Rolex, Panerai, Richard Mille, Omega. etc. 

Remarks : each manual winding watches contains 17 rubies, automatic watch has 21 jewels. RM-11 has 68 jewels and most complicated watches has  242 jewels. Each of the jewels having cost of a few Swiss frans! 

HK Snob

 

Will Richard Mille follows the same path of what Panerai did in the past ten years?

Richard Mille is youngest and probably is one of the highest profit watch makers. 

Their production volume if not high but the price is, so revenue is very high. 

I had tried the RM-11 which was fantastic for the first impression and there they have launched newer I can't remember only RM-11 had how may variety on dial design, plus combination of material and minor design feature.

They have Titanium pink gold case, they use ivory embedded on the crown and or black carbon bezel,  circular case and bezel of RM33, RM62 looks like the Eclipse of Patek ...etc,

Yes, we see RM is doing very good in sales, and their watch is very expensive, they use High technology material and innovative design, but in 1969, the high tech quartz had brought Seiko a success, but later took over by Swiss on the mechanical watches again.

The recent RM27-04 designed for Rafael Nadal which is US$1M... 

RM is an success, interesting to understand what is their marketing strategy for the next 5 or 10 years to keep them in the top if the luxury lines of watches.

Well, I really hope that it will not follow the same path as Panerai in the last ten years, by making too many similar models, limited edition after another limited edition with similar or even equal design.

HK Snob