2024 Resolution

Reflecting on the year 2023, it has been a challenging period, particularly when compared to the relatively prosperous year of 2022. The prices of properties and luxury goods have plummeted, and the HS index has hit a low point of 16000, indicating a bearish market. With just five hours remaining, 2023 is about to become a part of history.

Contemplating my actions throughout the year, I can't help but feel the passage of time accelerating as I grow older. In the second quarter, I set a personal goal to achieve 100 consecutive flip hand push-ups by December 31, 2023. While my personal best stands at 50 repetitions, reaching halfway to my target, I recognize the inherent limitations of the human body. Completing 50 push-ups in one go is a source of great satisfaction, especially considering that there are likely fewer than 5000 individuals worldwide, particularly men over 60, who can accomplish this feat. In 2024, I will continue to explore different methods to further improve my performance.

Maintaining intermittent fasting has been a remarkable achievement, enabling me to sustain a weight range of 129-131 pounds. I am grateful for the vitality it has bestowed upon me and the absence of any medication requirements.

My venture into Wing Chun Kung Fu has instilled me with newfound confidence in handling both work and personal interactions. I am determined to continue my practice.

In terms of my watch collection, I recently acquired an Audemars Piguet Platinum square skeleton manual winding watch, becoming the fifth piece in my Audemars Piguet collection. Looking ahead to 2030, I hope these timepieces will appreciate in value and potentially be sold for $3 million.

Within my family life, I find immense joy in the relationships I share with my daughters and their mothers. They are my angels, and I hold no regrets. My love extends to their mothers as well.

As we approach the dawning of 2024, my sincere wish is for a year free from conflict and strife. May we all enjoy good health and happiness throughout the year.

Regarding my job, I aspire to forge stronger relationships with my customers, assisting them in attaining profitable outcomes, as this is an integral aspect of my professional responsibilities.

Happy new year!

HK Snob

The Market for Luxury Watches in Hong Kong: Analysis and Forecast

Introduction:

The market for luxury watches in Hong Kong has garnered significant attention, with many individuals inquiring about its current status and future prospects. In this essay, we will delve into the dynamics of the market, focusing on notable brands and their price trends. Additionally, we will provide insights into the potential forecast for 2024, taking into account global geopolitical factors and their potential impact on the luxury watch industry.

Current Market Overview:

Currently, the market for luxury watches in Hong Kong is characterized by a lack of transparency in terms of real transactions. Although dealer groups provide trade quotes, genuine transactions are scarce. Rolex authorized dealers (AD) possess limited stock, primarily available to select customers at suggested retail prices (SRP). Moreover, the secondary market for Rolex watches, particularly models like Daytona, GMT Master, and Submariners, has demonstrated relative stability in terms of pricing.

Luxury Brands and Price Trends:

Among the luxury brands, Audemars Piguet has experienced the most significant impact on prices. Hot items such as the Royal Oak have reportedly seen a decline of around 40% in market price. On the other hand, Vacheron Constantin, despite not being in highest demand, has managed to secure some of the sought-after models at prices drops from 30%, a notable decrease from 50-60% of AP comparing with price of 2022. Consequently, the current market presents an opportune time for potential buyers to consider acquiring hot models at comparatively lower prices.

Forecast for 2024:

When looking ahead to 2024, it is vital to consider the global geopolitical landscape and its potential influence on the luxury watch market. Ongoing conflicts, such as the US-RU-UK and IS-PA wars, are crucial factors to monitor. Notably, there are indications that US Republicans may reject any financial support for the UK President, potentially leading to the end of the RU-UK war by Q1 2024. If this occurs, global attention will likely shift to the Middle East region, where growing numbers of individuals feel disconnected from Israeli interests and may advocate for an end to the conflicts. However, the resolution of these conflicts ultimately depends on the actions of the United States.

Assuming the wars in the Middle East do reach resolution in 2024, it is expected that the world economy will experience a surge in positive energy, thereby fostering growth across various sectors. In the luxury watch market, this renewed economic vigor may lead to increased demand and subsequently higher prices by Q2 2024. It is crucial to note that these forecasts are subject to change and should be monitored closely.

Today's Sample Watch Prices:

To provide a glimpse into the current market, here are some estimated prices for popular watch models in Hong Kong:

Rolex GMT Master Pepsi Jubilee: HK$150,000

Rolex Daytona 2023 126500LN: HK$265,000

Rolex Daytona 116500LN (White): HK$220,000

Rolex Submariner 126610LN: HK$110,000

Audemars Piguet Royal Oak Blue 16202ST: HK$650,000

Audemars Piguet Royal Oak Blue 15202ST: HK$500,000 (discontinued model)

Vacheron Constantin Overseas 4605V/200R-B978 (35mm, pink gold): HK$465,000

Vacheron Constantin FiftySix 4600E/000R-B441 (40mm, pink gold, automatic): HK$210,000

Patek Philippe 5711 (Steel): HK$500,000

Conclusion:

In conclusion, the luxury watch market in Hong Kong offers opportunities for both seasoned collectors and individuals seeking good value. It is essential not to be swayed solely by a brand's image and hype, as there are many well-priced watches available. Ultimately, the true value of a watch lies in wearing and enjoying it, rather than keeping it stored away. As the market continues to evolve, staying informed about current trends and developments will be vital for making informed purchasing decisions.

HK Snob

Disclaimer: Please note that the prices provided are rough estimations, as they fluctuate daily, and variations may exist between different dealers.

HK Snob goes Youtuber

 Hi ALL

Pls subscribe my new YouTube channel " HK Snob" 

there are Watch, Audio, martial arts and many other topic.

HK Snob

HK Snob goes Youtube

Hi All friends, collogues, ASMPT business partners in overseas and China, please subscribe my new YouTube channels by "HK Snob" it has been established over two weeks and thanks for the support it has over 80,000 views. Your subscripting, share and comment is best to encourage me to put up more interesting topics.... Topics will cover Semiconductor process and the assembly equipment, hobbies on vintage Audio, local food in Hong Kong, Watch collection, Calligraphy, Wing Chun Kung Fu. Up-coming post will be about "Space Audio" that is a HK base audio company established since 1998 and the shop was appearing in the famous Hong Kong movie “Internal Affairs” (or "Mou gaan dou" in Cantonese) in 2002 with Andy Lau and Tong Leung. Audio Space later changed his brand new to Space Audio with the founder passed away in 2022. Before they are moved to new area to continue their audio business, we are luckily been selected to film it with interviews with the two owners of the shop, it is under editing and soon will be posted….

HK Snob

HK Snob Youtube channel

 Hi All friends, pls subscribe my new YouTube channel, comment and share to your friends.

This is the link

http://www.youtube.com/@PaulIp-xK4cw

HK Snob

Change of new career

Embrace the opportunity to explore new paths, broaden your horizon, 

and release your full potential

HK Snob

HK Snob goes Youtube, please Subscribe and comment

 Hi ALL 
HK Snob has been moving in parallel at Youtube, Please subscribe and comment

Click this link

First Audemars Piguet Royal Oak Ref 5402- HK Snob - YouTube

HK Snob

HK Snob watch fever goes youtube, please support by Subscribing it

 This is my new Youtube channel

(39) First Audemars Piguet Royal Oak Ref 5402- HK Snob - YouTube

Go for it.... Thanks for the support.

HK Snob

Just to see some of the common Watch buying behavior in Hong Kong

Low-ball buyer tricks when purchasing watches in Hong Kong

False Indications of Interest: Some low-ball buyers may pretend to be highly interested in a watch and engage in extensive discussions with the seller to create the impression that they are serious buyers. However, their intention is to negotiate a significantly lower price or take advantage of the seller's desperation to make a sale. 

Offering Unreasonably Low Prices: Low-ball buyers may intentionally make absurdly low offers for a watch, well below its market value. Their strategy is to start negotiations at an extremely low point, hoping that the seller will accept a higher price that is still lower than the watch's true worth.

Threatening to Walk Away: Another tactic employed by low-ball buyers is to threaten to walk away from the deal if the seller does not agree to their desired price. This approach relies on pressuring the seller into accepting a lower offer to avoid losing the potential sale altogether.

Highlighting Flaws: Some low-ball buyers may exaggerate or fabricate flaws or defects in the watch to justify a lower price. By pointing out perceived issues, they aim to negotiate a reduced price, even if the flaws are minimal or insignificant.

Cash Offers: Low-ball buyers might offer to pay in cash as a way to entice sellers into accepting a lower price. The promise of immediate payment in cash can be appealing to sellers who want a quick sale, potentially leading them to accept a lower offer. 

Low-ball buyers have been attempting to negotiate with incredibly low counter offers, sometimes even as low as 50% of your listed price. They are extremely particular, claiming that your Rolex lacks papers or a white tag, despite the fact that you haven't mentioned those details in your post. They insist that the watch is used, even though you have already indicated its condition. 

Furthermore, it is perplexing why they would mention the watch being used again when that fact has already been established. 

Some low-ball buyers argue that their own buyers are extremely wealthy and suggest that you should offer a larger discount based on that. In my opinion, if their buyers are truly affluent, it would be more reasonable for them to purchase a brand-new watch from a boutique. It seems somewhat amusing that they are interested in buying my $20K watch. 

To protect yourself as a seller, it's important to set a realistic price range for your watch based on its market value and condition. Be prepared to negotiate, but also be firm about your bottom line. Trust your judgment and don't feel pressured to accept an offer that you're not comfortable with. Consider seeking advice from experienced watch sellers or appraisers to ensure you're pricing your watch appropriately.

Remarks I found a funny one, please check yourself above.

HK Snob

 

All About watch Market in Hong Kong and Asia Q4 2023

Watch market 2023 Q4

The luxury market is subject to various factors such as economic conditions, geopolitical events, and changing consumer preferences. This is my personal opinion.

Best ten years 2011-2021

Diminishing Demand: Hong Kong and Asia have been significant contributors to the global luxury market, since 2012-1015years with a growing middle class and increasing disposable incomes driving demand for luxury goods. Since 2019 COVID people are forced staying home and more time more money for spending on so called “watch investment” many of them are newbies who knows nothing about watches but they contribute a lot on the growth of watch market, peak was Q4 2021. Rolex and other luxury watch price reached highest which is about 2- 3.5X MSRP.

Now the market drops 45% in average of the peak, that is about 1.5X to 2X of MSRP. To some of watch dealers and collectors, the price is still much higher than the MSRP, but to the outsider and the newbies they see a “big drop” on watch price, they have hope that the falls is still carry one, that is why no one intends  to buy a watch that would be lose it value in one month or two.

 Global economy

The Proxy war of Ukraine triggers the down turn of the world economy.

COVID19 had been a torture to our world economy, China is the lead to bring up the Asian commercial market but still struggle to regenerate free money for the general class people to buy “luxury” goods.’

Crypto money drop hell a lot from 2021 $60,000 to now $26,000 approx. that is one of the main drivers to pull the watch market down, during the high time of the Bitcoin, Elon Musk could accept it for buying Tesla. Some dealers could allow Rolex or RM trade using Bitcoin but that was history. During 2019-2021 many people earned virtual currency in the Bitcoin market converted them in to physical Rolex and RM  

Tech war

USA sanctioned everything to Russia and China, recently on set technology and forced Dutch ASML to stop shipping eUV Lithography 3-4 nm chip making machine to China. Huawei phone was No.1 in 2018 and US declared war to Huawei and orders his northern guy to kidnapped Huawei CFO for two years. She was released back to China on 15 Sep 2020. She lead the technology team to make a detour and  use current DUV 28nm Lithography equipment to use multiple emersion lithography process to create 7 nm chip as CPU on Mate60 phone!

 Human buying psychology

The majority of the general people will not buy when the market is dropping on stock market also as watch market. That is the cause of the massive scale in price drop.

Chinese Consumers: Chinese consumers have been a dominant force in the luxury market, both domestically and abroad. Their purchasing power and appetite for luxury brands have had a significant impact on the overall market growth in the region. Due to the downturns in China consumer market so as the Watch market.

Pre-Owned and Vintage: There has been a growing interest in pre-owned luxury goods and vintage items back in 1990-2015. But since 2018 Rolex announced not supporting older watches beyond 2000 in service. The vintage Rolex watches see a significant drops in demand. Especially Rolex who vintage watch price are all controversial on the period matching, lume condition and whether the watches is a frankenwatch or not, these scare the newbie on vintage collection. And the market is not long as good as before. Now in Hong Kong the vintage market is classified as “dead market”!

US harvest the world with increase of interests rate

No one would risk again buying the uncertain watch in the market, they rather keep their money in bank for better interests, HK USD interest rate is 4.5, UK Pound even p to 10.5% p.a. and Money is King again.

Buyers’ market

The appeal of new limited editions, unique designs, and the potential for investment in rare pieces have attracted consumers and collectors switch from pre-owned and vintage market. It is best time for those top 1% world rich people and watch collectors who are looking for his beloved watch pieces now as the price is “Cheap” to them.

 How about price now

Rolex Platinum Daytona new $750,000 (was $1m in 2021)

Rolex Daytona 116500LN White is $225,000 (was $350,000 in 2022 Q1)

Rolex Pepsi 126710BLRO is $150,000 (was $190,000 in 2022)

Patek Philippe 5711-1A is $720,000 (was $> $1.m in 2022)

Patek Philippe 5711R is $900K ( was $1.5M in 2021)

AP 15500 Blue is $35000 (was $500,000 in 2021)

AP 15202 ST is $500,000 (was $980,000 in 2021)

RM011-01 Mancini 2014 like new is $1.5M (was 2M in 2022)

RM030 Polo white ceramic 2016 (50 pcs) is $2M (was 3M in 2021)

(Price listed here is an average trade price only as this fluctuates daily, FYR only)

 2024 Q1

Well, no one has a crystal ball but likely I feel that the watch market will be gaining momentum slowly.

As my personal opinion.

1.       Buy only if you like the watch no matter Citizen, Seiko, Rolex or AP…

2.       Use them as a timepiece rather than keep it in vault to let it ages. The watch is not the parmesan ham or Chinese Lap Yuk!

3.       Looking for rare piece if you want to maintain certain value of it as this is always golden rule

The lesser the more value.

Many people asks me buying Rolex at MSRP, I think still far from what they can expect. If they still want to buy Skydweller green, Pepsi or Daytona with MSPR, he can wait at the AD or boutique if they are SVIP, and if they think you had trivial purchase history there, don’t waste your time. You had rather o buy a Mark Six as the chance to win three or four number is much higher than you get a Daytona at Rolex Boutique with MSRP.

Till next post.

HK Snob