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HK Snob

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Just to see some of the common Watch buying behavior in Hong Kong

Low-ball buyer tricks when purchasing watches in Hong Kong

False Indications of Interest: Some low-ball buyers may pretend to be highly interested in a watch and engage in extensive discussions with the seller to create the impression that they are serious buyers. However, their intention is to negotiate a significantly lower price or take advantage of the seller's desperation to make a sale. 

Offering Unreasonably Low Prices: Low-ball buyers may intentionally make absurdly low offers for a watch, well below its market value. Their strategy is to start negotiations at an extremely low point, hoping that the seller will accept a higher price that is still lower than the watch's true worth.

Threatening to Walk Away: Another tactic employed by low-ball buyers is to threaten to walk away from the deal if the seller does not agree to their desired price. This approach relies on pressuring the seller into accepting a lower offer to avoid losing the potential sale altogether.

Highlighting Flaws: Some low-ball buyers may exaggerate or fabricate flaws or defects in the watch to justify a lower price. By pointing out perceived issues, they aim to negotiate a reduced price, even if the flaws are minimal or insignificant.

Cash Offers: Low-ball buyers might offer to pay in cash as a way to entice sellers into accepting a lower price. The promise of immediate payment in cash can be appealing to sellers who want a quick sale, potentially leading them to accept a lower offer. 

Low-ball buyers have been attempting to negotiate with incredibly low counter offers, sometimes even as low as 50% of your listed price. They are extremely particular, claiming that your Rolex lacks papers or a white tag, despite the fact that you haven't mentioned those details in your post. They insist that the watch is used, even though you have already indicated its condition. 

Furthermore, it is perplexing why they would mention the watch being used again when that fact has already been established. 

Some low-ball buyers argue that their own buyers are extremely wealthy and suggest that you should offer a larger discount based on that. In my opinion, if their buyers are truly affluent, it would be more reasonable for them to purchase a brand-new watch from a boutique. It seems somewhat amusing that they are interested in buying my $20K watch. 

To protect yourself as a seller, it's important to set a realistic price range for your watch based on its market value and condition. Be prepared to negotiate, but also be firm about your bottom line. Trust your judgment and don't feel pressured to accept an offer that you're not comfortable with. Consider seeking advice from experienced watch sellers or appraisers to ensure you're pricing your watch appropriately.

Remarks I found a funny one, please check yourself above.

HK Snob

 

All About watch Market in Hong Kong and Asia Q4 2023

Watch market 2023 Q4

The luxury market is subject to various factors such as economic conditions, geopolitical events, and changing consumer preferences. This is my personal opinion.

Best ten years 2011-2021

Diminishing Demand: Hong Kong and Asia have been significant contributors to the global luxury market, since 2012-1015years with a growing middle class and increasing disposable incomes driving demand for luxury goods. Since 2019 COVID people are forced staying home and more time more money for spending on so called “watch investment” many of them are newbies who knows nothing about watches but they contribute a lot on the growth of watch market, peak was Q4 2021. Rolex and other luxury watch price reached highest which is about 2- 3.5X MSRP.

Now the market drops 45% in average of the peak, that is about 1.5X to 2X of MSRP. To some of watch dealers and collectors, the price is still much higher than the MSRP, but to the outsider and the newbies they see a “big drop” on watch price, they have hope that the falls is still carry one, that is why no one intends  to buy a watch that would be lose it value in one month or two.

 Global economy

The Proxy war of Ukraine triggers the down turn of the world economy.

COVID19 had been a torture to our world economy, China is the lead to bring up the Asian commercial market but still struggle to regenerate free money for the general class people to buy “luxury” goods.’

Crypto money drop hell a lot from 2021 $60,000 to now $26,000 approx. that is one of the main drivers to pull the watch market down, during the high time of the Bitcoin, Elon Musk could accept it for buying Tesla. Some dealers could allow Rolex or RM trade using Bitcoin but that was history. During 2019-2021 many people earned virtual currency in the Bitcoin market converted them in to physical Rolex and RM  

Tech war

USA sanctioned everything to Russia and China, recently on set technology and forced Dutch ASML to stop shipping eUV Lithography 3-4 nm chip making machine to China. Huawei phone was No.1 in 2018 and US declared war to Huawei and orders his northern guy to kidnapped Huawei CFO for two years. She was released back to China on 15 Sep 2020. She lead the technology team to make a detour and  use current DUV 28nm Lithography equipment to use multiple emersion lithography process to create 7 nm chip as CPU on Mate60 phone!

 Human buying psychology

The majority of the general people will not buy when the market is dropping on stock market also as watch market. That is the cause of the massive scale in price drop.

Chinese Consumers: Chinese consumers have been a dominant force in the luxury market, both domestically and abroad. Their purchasing power and appetite for luxury brands have had a significant impact on the overall market growth in the region. Due to the downturns in China consumer market so as the Watch market.

Pre-Owned and Vintage: There has been a growing interest in pre-owned luxury goods and vintage items back in 1990-2015. But since 2018 Rolex announced not supporting older watches beyond 2000 in service. The vintage Rolex watches see a significant drops in demand. Especially Rolex who vintage watch price are all controversial on the period matching, lume condition and whether the watches is a frankenwatch or not, these scare the newbie on vintage collection. And the market is not long as good as before. Now in Hong Kong the vintage market is classified as “dead market”!

US harvest the world with increase of interests rate

No one would risk again buying the uncertain watch in the market, they rather keep their money in bank for better interests, HK USD interest rate is 4.5, UK Pound even p to 10.5% p.a. and Money is King again.

Buyers’ market

The appeal of new limited editions, unique designs, and the potential for investment in rare pieces have attracted consumers and collectors switch from pre-owned and vintage market. It is best time for those top 1% world rich people and watch collectors who are looking for his beloved watch pieces now as the price is “Cheap” to them.

 How about price now

Rolex Platinum Daytona new $750,000 (was $1m in 2021)

Rolex Daytona 116500LN White is $225,000 (was $350,000 in 2022 Q1)

Rolex Pepsi 126710BLRO is $150,000 (was $190,000 in 2022)

Patek Philippe 5711-1A is $720,000 (was $> $1.m in 2022)

Patek Philippe 5711R is $900K ( was $1.5M in 2021)

AP 15500 Blue is $35000 (was $500,000 in 2021)

AP 15202 ST is $500,000 (was $980,000 in 2021)

RM011-01 Mancini 2014 like new is $1.5M (was 2M in 2022)

RM030 Polo white ceramic 2016 (50 pcs) is $2M (was 3M in 2021)

(Price listed here is an average trade price only as this fluctuates daily, FYR only)

 2024 Q1

Well, no one has a crystal ball but likely I feel that the watch market will be gaining momentum slowly.

As my personal opinion.

1.       Buy only if you like the watch no matter Citizen, Seiko, Rolex or AP…

2.       Use them as a timepiece rather than keep it in vault to let it ages. The watch is not the parmesan ham or Chinese Lap Yuk!

3.       Looking for rare piece if you want to maintain certain value of it as this is always golden rule

The lesser the more value.

Many people asks me buying Rolex at MSRP, I think still far from what they can expect. If they still want to buy Skydweller green, Pepsi or Daytona with MSPR, he can wait at the AD or boutique if they are SVIP, and if they think you had trivial purchase history there, don’t waste your time. You had rather o buy a Mark Six as the chance to win three or four number is much higher than you get a Daytona at Rolex Boutique with MSRP.

Till next post.

HK Snob

 

 

 

 

When the big watch hype will come again?

The watch has changed a lot over the last 120 years.

From modifying a pocket watch adding a strap to be use for soldiers in the turn of last 20 century, watch with strap wearing on wrist become the norm in 1920.

Since then a lot of change on watch size took place, between 1920-1960 size is about 30 mm to 36 mm

In 1950 size 35mm and size 36mm was classified as very large watch, nominal size is 33mm.

Gradually, size keeps on increasing from 36mm a Date Just to 41mm Date Just same for Rolex Day Date, there is more bigger watches were seen in 2000-2010, the Panerai was the iconic larger watch as Sylvester Stallone and Arnold Schwarzenegger were wearing big watch in the movie, that created the Hype. By then the larger the watch, the bolder, more daring and more showy of the persona men’s best accessory.

Now since 2016, the trend has stopped, in a opposite way, the watch size was change towards smaller and thinner manner. By 2010, size of 39-47 were the big size watch, by now the nominal value of most brands watch are between 35-39 mm. It is getting smaller.

Now people is getting bored with bigger watches, and tend to get smaller, the sweet spot of men watch for Asians are 34-38mm in my opinion, for wrist with seize 17cm and over larger watch may look for suitable.

In my opinion, it’s your choice preferring a larger or smaller watch.

Larger watches are good to tell time and be seen far way from others.

Larger watch is ore on sport watches.

Smaller watches look more elegant and less gaudy.

Smaller watches usually is manual winding and thin automatic dress watch.

Typically I like them more as it was on certain in door of office occasions

Of course I have large watch such as 44-45mm Panerai for certain outdoor occasion.

I think all are up to your choice, either smaller or bigger so long you love them is OK

Today the bigger one seems lose it glory as they did in 2000, but today I see a Panerai Submersible S BRABUS Verde Militare 47mm, it is a cross over between Panerai and Brabus, a daring big watch with MSRP of HK$391,000. It is a nice piece. Who knows when the big watch hype come again?

 

HK Snob

Market price of luxury watch at Q3 2023

After an unprecedented surge in 2021 and 2022, the pre-owned luxury watch industry is going through a rapid decline as watch dealers and investors flood the market with supply.

Prices for the once highly sought-after Rolex Daytona, Patek Nautilus and Audemars Piguet Royal Oak models have all dropped 30% to 35%

Watch values have been hit by slowing economic growth, US Proxy war at Ukarine, Taiwan straits tension created by the western Government, stupid sanctions to China on Semiconductor chips, higher interest rates and the collapse of cryptocurrencies.

In recent months, watch dealers and investors have flooded the market with supply of once-sought-after Rolex Daytona, Patek Nautilus and Audemars Piguet Royal Oak models, leading to a 24 per cent decline in a luxury watch market index.

Typical model price of Mar 2022 and 2023 are listed here.

Patek 5711/1a $1.2M / $840,000

Audemars Piguet Royal Oak discon. 15202 ST $1.3M / $650K

Rolex 116610LN NOS Year 2020 $120K /$ 90K 

Daytona 116100LN White $430K /$230K 

Daytona 116520 White A series $240K / $190K

Vacheron Constantin Overseas 5500V/110A  Blue $330K  / $280K

Now I am sure the price is still not the bottom, the richer is always be the more richer as they have

Money to buy now.

Now we see the cheaper watches $<80K are moving fast, while the more expensive one such as higher $150K are slow movers.

Remarks

Price is for reference only, in HKD

HK Snob

 

Buying bahaviour of HKers

 There are many reasons why a buyer may choose not to make a purchase, and some common excuses that buyers may give include:

1. Price: The buyer may feel that the price of the product or service is too high, or they may not see the value in what they are being asked to pay.  70% of the cases.

2. Need: The buyer may not feel that they need the product or service, or they may feel that they can get by without it. 5%

3. Timing: The buyer may not be ready to make a purchase at this time, or they may be waiting for a better deal or promotion. 5%

4. Trust: The buyer may not trust the seller or the product, or they may have had a bad experience with a similar product or service in the past. 10%

5. Competition: The buyer may be considering other options or may have found a better deal elsewhere. 10%

6. Decision-making: The buyer may be indecisive or unsure about what they want, or they may need more information before making a decision. 5%

7. Logistics: The buyer may have logistical concerns, such as shipping or delivery issues, or they may not be able to find the product or service they are looking for in their area. 5%

It's important to note that these excuses are not always the real reasons why a buyer chooses not to make a purchase, and it's up to the seller to try to understand the buyer's needs and address any concerns they may have.

Here are the most common reasons your buyer goes radio silent: They've made a decision but they're on their own timeline. Whether they're going with you or a competitor, or are going to put off the purchase, your customer has made an informal decision, they just don't have to BUY right at this moment.

And most of all, I dislike Radio Silence, juts say I don’t buy now, or I pass, or I will not consider it now… is OK

HK Snob

Tiffany Blue Watch ref 73/15 diver watch

 

Tiffany & Co. has consistently exceeded expectations with phenomenal products, and there is no exception for this watch, which looks very similar to the Rolex Sub-Mariner style. This unique piece is incredibly rare and is very rarely found available in the market today. This beautiful timepiece features a Stainless Steel case that measures approximately 39mm (case excluding crown) x 8mm (high). The case is topped with a superb blue red rotating diving bezel. Behind the crystal is a matching blue dial with silver tone luminescent hour markers, matching hands, and a date feature located at 3 o'clock, in a style that is very similar to the Rolex Submariner. This ETA Calibre 995 Quartz powered watch also has a solid Stainless Steel water proof screw back case. The watch is complete with its original Tiffany & Co. warranty papers, roll box, and pouch. Dated 1992 in Japan. Look at the patina Lume is so beautiful with matching hand colour. As you now know, in today’s market, it is virtually impossible to come by this vintage timepiece in Brand New condition such as this one. If you are looking for an incredibly rare and durable timepiece that isn't as heavy as a traditional diver's watch, this classic and sophisticated watch is an absolute necessity addition to my collection!

Burgundy is selling US$10,000, Black is selling US$7,956, What do you think the value of blue is?

HK Snob

Luxury Watch market changes

 The luxury watch market is constantly evolving, and trends come and go. While vintage Rolex watches were popular since 2005 till 2025, there has been a recent trend towards gold Rolex watches and even gold watches with diamond accents. These watches have become increasingly popular among collectors and enthusiasts who want to make a bold statement with their timepieces. However, it's important to note that preferences in the luxury watch market can vary depending on the region, cultural influences, global gold price, hype from the celebrities and movies stars and individual tastes.

While vintage Rolex watches have always been highly sought after, the trend has shifted towards newer models that feature more eye-catching designs and embellishments. It's possible that some people may have grown tired of stainless steel sports watches like Rolex for more than a decade, and are looking for something different and more luxurious For example, the Rolex Daytona with a diamond-encrusted bezel has become increasingly popular among collectors, as has the Rolex GMT Master II with its unique combination of meteorite and or with gold and diamonds.

In addition to Rolex, other luxury watch brands such as Patek Philippe, Audemars Piguet, and Richard Mille have also seen a surge in popularity in recent years. These brands offer a range of watches that cater to different tastes and preferences, from classic and understated to bold and extravagant.

Ultimately, the choice of watch is a matter of personal preference and style. Some people may prefer the understated elegance of a steel sports watch, while others may prefer the bold and luxurious look of a gold and diamond watch. What's important is finding a watch that suits your tastes and meets your needs, whether that's for everyday wear or special occasions.

Notable trend is that there are having less people is focusing on buying those vintage Rolex as I had mentioned before, there was a lot of price difference say on Mark I of Rolex GMT Master 1675 than Mark II or III, well, nowadays there seems less concern about this so far people can recognize that is a 1675 GMT would be accepted, of course more demanding collector will still look for rarer Mark I.

In short the vintage Rolex price is not synchronized with the price up as the new Rolex.

That is quite pathetic , Recently we have seem a Daytona Zenith 16520 A series white is selling $170K , I think this was $220K in 2022. Also we can see a floating line Daytona 16520 Black is now $330K, that is much cheaper than 2021.

So if you are keen on buying good stuff, this is the time.

Those Daytona are never out of fashion! Especially with gold and diamond, they are good to buy now.

HK Snob

$ here is HKD