World Luxury Watch market decline 2025-2035, what should I do?

 

 

The watch market is experiencing a significant shift, moving from a post-pandemic boom t2022 o a period of correction and restructuring 2024, with declines seen in 2024 and early 2025, especially in the mass-luxury and Asian markets, while high-end brands show resilience. Predictions for 2025-2035 suggest continued challenges, with analysts expecting stabilization in the mid-term and potential long-term growth driven by emerging markets and evolving consumer tastes, but a "decade-long slump" is possible for the broader market, marked by changing consumer behavior and economic pressures. 

 

 

Key Trends & Factors (2025-2035):

• Market Correction: The inflated prices and frenzy of the pandemic era have cooled, leading to price stabilization or gradual declines in the secondary market for many brands.
• Economic Headwinds: Geopolitical issues, currency fluctuations (strong Swiss Franc), inflation, and weaker demand in key markets like China and Japan are impacting sales.
• Divergence by Segment:
• Mass-Luxury (CHF 500-3,000): Hit hardest by declining sales and value.
• High-End/Ultra-Luxury: Brands like Rolex, Patek Philippe, and Audemars Piguet show greater resilience and even price increases, attracting new collectors.
• FP Journe instead facing huge demand from collectors, simple watch like Elegante has to wait for 2-3 years!
•  
• Shifting Consumer Behavior: Consumers are more discerning, with interest in "quiet luxury," new designs (like colorful dials), and brand history.
• New Indies grow with their bolder and unique design captures a segment of some luxury market. Mainly due to their entry level price.
• Growth in Emerging Markets: Strong growth is expected in places like India, potentially offsetting declines elsewhere.
• Technology vs. Tradition: A mix of smart features and traditional craftsmanship continues to drive innovation and appeal. 
•  

Outlook (2025-2035):

• Short-Term (2025-2026): Continued restructuring, with uncertainty and pressure on some segments, but signs of stabilization in the secondary market.
• Mid-to-Long Term (2027-2035): The market is expected to rebalance, with potential for overall growth (CAGR ~3.93% for Swiss watches) driven by new consumer bases and strategic adaptation, though the boom of the early 2020s is unlikely to return soon.  

In essence, the watch market isn't ending, but rather maturing and diversifying, with winners and losers depending on brand strength, market positioning, and ability to adapt to new economic realities and consumer demands. 

Many brands are doing reconstruction on their organization, launching new design, closing some of their outlets, However still these watches are still hard to get at MSRP: Nautilus, Aquanaut, Royal Oak, GMT Master II, Daytona and Submariners.

 

As of myself, I still focus on some of the rare neo-vintage watch collection such as Cartier Santos, Royal Oak of 37mm, Vacheron Constantin Overseas Generation 1 Ref 42042 Black and or Salmon, Rolex Coke and some of the Day Date with stone dial Ref 1803, Besides, some of the solid gold dress watch with integrated bracelet is a great item to buy if price is affordable.

Paul Ip