Predicting Watch Appreciation: A Look Ahead to 2025

 

Predicting Watch Appreciation: A Look Ahead to 2025

As we approach 2025, the luxury watch market continues to evolve, with certain brands and models standing out as top contenders for appreciation in value. This essay analyzes some key players from 2024, highlighting their potential for growth and the factors influencing their market value.

Rolex

Rolex remains the most iconic and sought-after watch brand globally, with a remarkable 70% of total Swiss watch export revenue attributed to its sales. In 2024, Rolex produced 1.24 million watches, a testament to its enduring popularity. The following models are particularly noteworthy for potential appreciation:

• Rolex Daytona: The Paul Newman and ceramic bezel variants are especially coveted.
• Rolex Submariner: Vintage and limited editions continue to attract collectors.
• Rolex GMT-Master II: Models with "Pepsi," "Batman," or "Root Beer" bezels are in high demand.
• Rolex Daytona Le Mans: The recent 2023 release is poised for appreciation.

Patek Philippe

Synonymous with luxury and exclusivity, Patek Philippe watches often see significant value increases. Their intricate complications and limited production enhance desirability. Key models to watch include:

• Nautilus: Particularly the discontinued stainless steel 5711.
• Nautilus 5712: Recently announced for discontinuation, increasing its collectibility.
• Aquanaut: Limited editions are especially sought after.
• Perpetual Calendar Chronographs: Notable models include the 5970 and 5270.
• Grand Complications: Models like the 5208P are highly regarded.

Audemars Piguet (AP)

Audemars Piguet’s Royal Oak and Royal Oak Offshore models are highly collectible, especially limited editions. Top models to consider include:

• Royal Oak "Jumbo" Extra-Thin: Models 15202 and 16202 are particularly desirable.
• Royal Oak Offshore: Limited editions, such as the "Safari" or "Mega Tapisserie," are noteworthy.
• Royal Oak Perpetual Calendar: The 26574ST model is a strong contender.

Richard Mille

Known for their avant-garde designs and celebrity endorsements, Richard Mille watches often appreciate significantly due to their limited production. Important models include:

• RM 011: Especially in limited editions.
• RM 035: Rafael Nadal editions are particularly popular.
• RM 027: Tourbillon models are highly collectible.

FP Journe

As a rising star in independent watchmaking, FP Journe produces only 3,000 watches annually, creating high demand among collectors. Models to watch include:

• Chronomètre Bleu
• Octa Lune
• Tourbillon Souverain

Omega

Omega maintains a strong following, particularly for its Speedmaster and Seamaster models, with select limited editions appreciating in value. Noteworthy models include:

• Speedmaster Moonwatch: Vintage or limited editions like the "Apollo 11" 50th Anniversary are especially valuable.
• Seamaster 300: Vintage models or limited editions are in demand.
• Omega x Swatch MoonSwatch: If the hype continues, this model could appreciate.

Tudor

Tudor is gaining traction as a more affordable alternative to Rolex, with certain models showing strong potential for appreciation. Key models include:

• Black Bay Fifty-Eight
• Pelagos: Especially limited editions.
• Tudor Submariner: Vintage models are particularly sought after.

Cartier

In recent years, Cartier’s Crash model has achieved record auction prices, indicating strong demand. The Santos collection, particularly the Burgundy and Ghost dial models, is also worth monitoring.

Independent Brands

Independent watchmakers like MB&F, Grönefeld, and A. Lange & Söhne produce limited quantities, making their watches highly collectible. Notable models include:

• A. Lange & Söhne Lange 1
• MB&F Horological Machines
• Grönefeld 1941 Remontoire

Key Factors to Consider

When predicting which watches will appreciate in value, consider the following factors:

• Limited Editions: Watches with restricted production runs tend to appreciate faster.
• Celebrity Endorsements: Models linked to celebrities or significant events often gain value.
• Condition and Provenance: Mint-condition watches with original boxes and papers are more likely to appreciate.
• Market Trends: Monitoring auction results and collector forums can reveal emerging trends.

What to Look for in 2025

For 2025, I believe the Cartier Santos—whether in steel, two-tone, or full gold—is an excellent investment. Its prices have increased by over 50% in the past two years, indicating strong demand. For example, the Santos Ghost now sells between HK$50,000 and HK$82,000.

Regarding Rolex, the 1908 Platinum Ice Blue is currently priced at HK$440,000, significantly above its MSRP of HK$248,900. Additionally, the "Rolex Day-Date Maze" and the recently discontinued OP "Celebration" model are also worth considering, although the latter may not appeal to everyone.

In the AP market, the 15202 has seen a dramatic price drop from HK$990,000 to HK$490,000, presenting a potential buying opportunity.

The hunt for these timepieces is as enjoyable as the acquisition itself—80% of the fun lies in searching, while the remaining 20% is the thrill of finding a good deal.

Best of luck in your watch investment journey!

HK Snob

Watch 2025 from Trend to tradition

As we approach 2025, the watch industry is poised to enter what many are dubbing the "Gold Watch Year." This exciting period represents a significant shift in how collectors and enthusiasts view timepieces, moving beyond mere trends to a deeper appreciation for craftsmanship, history, and the stories behind the watches.

A Shift in Focus: From Trend to Tradition

In recent years, particularly from 2020 to 2023, the watch market was heavily influenced by hip-hop culture and celebrity endorsements. This era saw a surge in demand for flashy, statement pieces often showcased in music videos. However, the landscape is changing. Collectors are beginning to draw parallels between watches and classic cars, engaging in conversations about the intricacies of each piece—its design, history, and the artisanship that went into its creation.

The Allure of Precious Metals

One of the significant trends anticipated in 2025 is the renewed interest in watches made from precious metals. As collectors shift their focus, the material of the watch becomes a talking point in itself. Gold, platinum, and other noble metals are not just about luxury; they symbolize a commitment to quality and heritage. The craftsmanship involved in creating a gold watch is something collectors are excited to explore and discuss.

The Rise of Iconic Brands

Brands like VC (Vacheron Constantin), Corum, Piaget, Universal Genève, IWC, Cartier, and Chopard are regaining prominence in the conversation. These Maisons are not merely manufacturers; they are custodians of history. Collectors are now interested in the legacy of the watches they wear—the significance of who wore them in the '60s, '70s, and '80s, and the craftsmanship behind the bracelets and dials.

Conversations Around Craftsmanship

Today, the discussion surrounding watches extends to the minutiae of their construction. The way a bracelet is made, the expertise of dial makers, and the historical context of each piece are all subjects of fascination. Collectors are eager to delve into these details, appreciating not just the aesthetic, but the story each watch tells.

A Promising Future

As we look forward to the next five years, the watch industry is set to enjoy a renaissance. The emphasis on history and craftsmanship will continue to evolve, creating a rich tapestry of conversations among collectors and enthusiasts alike. The Gold Watch Year will not only celebrate the luxury of timepieces but will also honor the artistry and legacy that each watch embodies.

In conclusion, 2025 promises to be a transformative year for the watch community, where appreciation for tradition and artistry takes center stage, making it an exciting time for collectors and connoisseurs.

 Remarks  Vacheron Constantin 42041 left hand  Overseas  one piecs

HK Snob

Colour and Size trend for latest Watches

 Over the past decade, the watch industry has seen some fascinating trends emerge in terms of dial colors and watch sizes. From 2010 to 2016, blue-dialed Rolex watches were the dominant choice, with blue dials enjoying the highest demand across the brand's lineup. 

However, a significant shift occurred in 2019 when Patek Philippe introduced the highly coveted Tiffany Blue limited edition Nautilus in steel. This created a renewed hype around the Tiffany Blue aesthetic, and the same year, Rolex responded by introducing their own Tiffany Blue, as well as green, yellow, and pink variants of the Oyster Perpetual. These bold, eye-catching colorways were instantly popular, with the 41mm Tiffany Blue Oyster Perpetual commanding prices up to HK$500,000 on the secondary market, even though the prices have since stabilized to a more reasonable HK$130,000 level. 

While the Tiffany Blue craze captivated the market, it became evident that this specific shade of blue may not appeal to all tastes. In 2020 and the following years, Patek Philippe introduced the green-dialed Nautilus 5711, which seemed to shift the trend towards green as the new "it" color. The green Nautilus became the talk of the town, with many enthusiasts declaring that "green is the new blue." 

Alongside the color trends, the market has also seen a growing preference for more elegant, simplified dial designs. Dress watches have become increasingly popular, with models like the Cartier Tank and the Crash finding their way onto the wrists of both men and women, even for formal occasions. Furthermore, the Audemars Piguet Royal Oak Mini is Big News for Small Watch Lovers, Royal Oak Mini Frosted Gold, a trio of watches coming in at a perfectly petite 23mm.

In 2024, the latest color trend appears to be a shift towards salmon and pink tones. Recent releases, such as the Tudor Black Bay Chrono 41mm in pink steel, have been highly sought after, indicating a growing appreciation for these warm, sophisticated hues.

Additionally, there seems to be a preference for smaller watch sizes, with 35-38mm becoming the sweet spot for many men. Pieces that may have been overlooked a decade ago are now being reconsidered and worn with confidence.

Finally, the Rolex King Medias, with their timeless elegance and beauty, have seen a surge in demand, reflecting the ongoing appreciation for classic, well-crafted timepieces.

Overall, the watch industry has navigated a dynamic landscape of color trends, size preferences, and a renewed focus on both dress watches and iconic designs. As the market continues to evolve, it will be fascinating to see how these trends unfold and shape the future of the industry.

 在過去的十年裡,腕錶行業在錶盤顏色和錶款尺寸方面出現了一些引人注目的趨勢。從2010年到2016年,藍色錶盤的勞力士腕錶是主流選擇,藍色錶盤在品牌的全線產品中需求最高。 

然而,2019年Patek Philippe引入了深受追捧的Tiffany Blue 蒂芙尼藍限量版鋼款Nautilus,掀起了一股對蒂芙尼藍美學的新熱潮。同年,勞力士也推出了自己的蒂芙尼藍以及綠色、黃色和粉色版本的「水手型恆動」系列。這些大膽、引人注目的色彩立即受到歡迎,41毫米蒂芙尼藍「Oyster Perpetual」甚至在市場上飆升至50萬港元,儘管現在價格已穩定在13萬港元左右。 

儘管蒂芙尼藍熱潮吸引了市場關注,但這種特殊藍色可能並不符合所有人的品味。在2020年及以後,Patek Philippe推出了綠色錶盤Nautilus 5711型,似乎將趨勢轉向將綠色視為新的「爆款」色調。綠色諾蒂樂斯成為話題焦點,許多愛好者宣稱「綠色是新的藍色」(Green is the new Blue)。 

除了色彩趨勢,市場也出現了對更優雅、簡約錶盤設計的偏好。正裝腕錶越來越受歡迎,卡地亞Tank和Prasha列等型號已經出現在男女佩戴正裝場合的腕上。此外,愛彼皇家橡樹迷你系列也為追捧小錶的愛好者帶來了新選擇,包括23毫米的迷你皇家橡樹冰鑽金系列。 

到2024年,最新的色彩趨勢似乎正朝著三文魚色和粉色調發展。如Tudor Black Bay計時41毫米粉鋼款的新款備受追捧,顯示市場對這些溫和、高雅色調的青睞。 

此外,35-38毫米似乎成為許多男士的最佳尺寸選擇,過去可能被忽略的錶款現在受到青睞,佩戴者也更加自信。 

最後,勞力士王者系列凝聚了永恆的優雅美學,需求也呈現上升趨勢,反映了人們對經典、精心打造腕錶的持續欣賞。 

總的來說,腕錶行業經歷了色彩趨勢、尺寸偏好以及正裝腕錶和經典設計重拾關注的動態格局。隨著市場的不斷演進,這些趨勢的發展將是令人矚目的。

誰摧毀了中古勞力士表市場？

誰摧毀了中古勞力士表市場？

我喜歡中古款勞力士,喜歡帶有故事和歷史的勞力士手錶。

我曾擁有幾件收藏級的中古勞力士。那是在1990-2013年期間。其中,我最喜歡1803型日誌型,它們是最漂亮的勞力士之一,採用黃金、白金制造，尺寸為36毫米,非常適合我16.6公分的腕圍。然而,另一方面,這些中古Day Date 型號的價格一直在攀升。我們在2000年買到一枚黃金錶殼、黃金錶盤連原裝表帶的1803型,當時的價格約6萬元,5年後已接近10萬元。我相信2000-2010那是Day Date 型愛好者的黃金 十年。

眾所周知,古董手錶的價值取決於幾個因素:

1.手錶本身的原裝性,包括錶殼、錶盤、錶圈、錶冠、錶帶。

2. 手錶的狀況,包括錶盤、錶圈和錶殼。 

3. 是否附有原廠說明書和包裝盒等配件。 

需要注意的是,勞力士在錶殼、錶盤、指針、錶帶等方面有很多變體,因為勞力士以前每年生產很多手錶。2023年勞力士生產了120萬只手錶,這已超過百年來百達翡麗的總產量。

 在50年代到90年代,勞力士的錶盤錶針都係分別由第三方公司承包生產的,指針和面盆也可能是由不同的公司製造。後來勞力士連間瑞士最大嘅錶針廠都賣咗佢，70-80年代,由於稅務問題,有一些全金錶殼是在台灣、阿根廷、日本或英國製造的。所以這就使整個情況變得複雜起來。

即使勞力士也無法確定1971年中生產年GMT 1675型的哪一款錶盤是正確的。只有那些收藏家通過自己的實地調查,重建了勞力士全部的生產系列的資料，勞力士從未出版過一本書來告訴大家,1969或者1972 年GMT Master應該使用什麼樣的錶盤...當然,他們可能知道,但不會因為公眾的想要的而公開這些數據...如果你想問,可以把你的手錶帶到勞力士服務中心,他們會查閱他們的記錄來告知你,儘管這様，

香港的勞力士服務中心和客戶之間曾經就手錶認證問題發生過多次爭論。最初,勞力士說根本沒有粉紅金1803型號的這件面，幾個月後,一位勞力士經理找到我的朋友說:"對不起, XX 先生。 你的這枚1803型號,序號為這個YYY ，確實有這麼様的面...我們已經在瑞士數據厙重新確認了。"這是一個好的結局” , 但係在大多數情況下,他們是決定你的手錶是否真實的－方！ 你沒有權利和資格與他們爭論,因為勞力士就是至高無上的皇帝！

也有很多自稱是勞力士專家的收藏家們，他們甚至可以對勞力士手錶進行認證。但是根據什麼數據他們可以告訴你你的勞力士是正確的錶盤、正確的錶圈?憑經驗?被公認為勞力士專家的大人物?勞力士先生?誰知道呢? 

 2018年,勞力士宣布不再為1990年代之前的復古勞力士提供認證和適當的維修服務...(確實年份記唔起了） 

這基本上葬送了大部分擁有幾枚到幾百枚中古勞力士的收藏家。其中一個原因是,客戶和勞力士之間就復古手錶存在很多爭議。勞力士希望保持手錶的原有功能,如防水性和指針與錶盤的夜光性,所以每當你想維修手錶時,他們很可能會要求更換錶盤和指針或更換錶圈以確保恰當的夜光效果和防水功能。然而,在進行這種維修後,你的中古勞力士的價值就會損失50%,因為它變成了維修錶盤(service dial) 而不是原裝錶盤! 值得留意嘅日本勞力士服務中心所維修嘅錶大部份佢都同你打磨。 香港14 樓中你可以叫佢唔打磨佢就唔打磨。我唔知今日仲係咪咁。應該係啩？ 

也許勞力士是在試圖保護自己,這將迫使人們,特別是新手收藏家,去買全新的勞力士或至少是新中古款勞力士, (泛指那－些1990-2000生產的勞力士。很明顯,在宣布這一消息後,很多人都感到害怕,不想再加入中古勞力士俱樂部...甚至包括我自己和我的朋友。相反,我們的重點會轉移到新中古款勞力士,如配有藍寶石水晶玻璃的勞力士手錶。或者乾脆新勞力士了。 

收集勞力士的序號從5位數開始。Daytona型是15628、15620或更新型號,GMT Master是16710或16760,1675型、6542型則是收藏界的巫毒。至於Submariner , Sea-Dweller,則是16610而不是1680,或16600而不是1665。 

 中古勞力士的美學價值

一位中古勞力士專家曾告訴我,手錶價值的70%在於錶盤。也就是說,更換錶盤並不意味著價值一定會上升。許多收藏家都喜歡帶有漂亮斑駁patina dial , tropical dial 的錶盤,這會讓手錶看起來更加道地,也增添了它的故事性。更換一枚經過歲月洗禮的美麗錶盤會摧毀手錶的價值。

 如果錶盤受到嚴重損壞,而不是自然老化,那又是另一回事。錶盤嚴重損壞的手錶,價值將低於更換或維修過錶盤的手錶。這關係到買家的感受。他們才是決定手錶實際價值的人,而不是市場價格。 

很多不誠實的經銷商和/或勞力士手錶賣家正在製造"Franken Rolex"手錶,方法是將不同型號的勞力士零件拼裝成一只手錶。我有一個菲律賓朋友,曾經到旺角一家店鋪購買10只主要為老款的勞力士手錶。當他回到家後將手錶送往勞力士進行維修時,發現這10只全部都是Franken手錶。他請我幫助他要求退款,但店家並不同意,因為發票上沒有承諾在某日期後可以更換。事實上,所有的Franken零件都是真正的勞力士零件,所以從法律角度來說,店家並沒有欺騙你。我已經記不清他最後是否成功退款,那已經是12年前的事了。

甚至連著名的拍賣行在預覽時,也會發現一些問題,比如一只1803型號的白金手錶配有不銹龬的錶冠！ 或許那是一款特別的藍色錶盤,非常漂亮的作品。為什麼會有不銹龬錶冠呢?事實上,我們不知道為什麼這位表主沒有換成白金錶冠。也許他並不知情。另一個著名的案例是一位香港影星YML 的Daytona手錶,也出現了類似的問題,而且這只手錶是從一家香港著名的Vintage勞力士專賣店購買的。

想像一下,如果勞力士手錶店的店主既不知道也不關心這些問題....他還是將這只手錶售給了一位著名的收藏家,我相信在這件事之後,這位收藏家再也不會從那家店購買了。

即使是大明星也會被騙, 或者是賣家也是不知情收回來，也不知情的賣了出去？而這只手錶並不便宜,他原本打算拿去拍賣,估價600萬元。誰還敢投資購買老款中古勞力士手錶呢?

勞力士的維修中心已經宣布不再支持這些老款手錶。拍賣行也在售賣Franken手錶。大型店鋪也在銷售可疑的Franken勞力士手錶。

所以很多收藏家對於尋找老款勞力士手錶已經失去興趣,也沒有人能夠站出來說"這只手錶是真品"。相反,總是有人跳出來說你的錶盤是"翻新的"、"非原裝錶盤"。這真的很傷心,也摧毀了老款勞力士市場。自2016年以來,老款勞力士的價格不再上漲,反而呈下降趨勢。我試問： 誰願意用三十萬買了－古董勞力士，有－天，開開心心的拿去勞力士十四樓維修中心。他們－位上工不到－年的服務員說： 唔好意思啊，我哋師傅話呢隻錶我勞力士冇出過呢個錶面㗎！

結論係邊個殺死勞力士古董股手表市場，其實係我地自己!

HK Snob

 

Voice out a Fake Rolex at Media?

 好多時見到外國綱站有人放隻勞力士錶出嚟，有D人就衝出嚟話件面不是原裝，或者表吾對期，有些早期的勞力士表，產量細，勞力士本身無正式記錄，連自己有幾多變種都未攪清楚，勞力士一年造嘅錶就多於Patek Philippe對上一百年做的總和咁多啦! 勞力士不同拍德菲麗或愛彼產量稀少，他們有詳細記錄產品流水號，型號外觀有詳細資料！就馮一張相決定人地隻錶係唔係原裝？
你真係有咁嘅本事？
就算送去勞力士人哋都正式搵個專家坐低鑒定啦？
另外講啦，就算人哋隻錶有問題你都應該客氣啲有保留地講喇。
 十年前發生咗一件事：有個錶收藏家見到一隻好特別嘅勞力士。一下子就話呢隻錶面假的，隨不知嗰個係架世堂人馬，立刻產上勞力士，勞力士說係出過呢隻錶，係原裝冇問題嘅，後事不用說了，朋友變成仇人了！有感而發，唔好又插！
HK Snob

我並不是勞力士的仇視者

 我並不是勞力士的仇視者,事實上,我喜歡勞力士,但我僅限於某些型號,並非所有的勞力士我都喜歡。例如,三年前泰芙尼 Oyster Perpetual Tiffany 曾經以高達 500,000 元的價格成交,而官方建議零售價只有 46,800 元(估計)。 

我認為那只是由於百達翡麗 5711 Tiffany泰芙尼藍的炒作,沒有中期價值(我無法預知長期價值,因為我沒有水晶球)。 

至於 2024 年新推出的勞力士手錶,真的沒有什麼引起我的注意,而 2023 年的 Day-Date Maze 可能會很有趣,但那肯定是超級稀有的型號。到目前為止,即使過了將近 1.5 年,我也還沒在香港看到一個。對於 2023 年的 Celebration 波波,我不認為我會想買它。也許這是一件適合 16 歲富家女父親生日禮物的好選擇。如果男士佩戴,我會懷疑他的品味。

 那麼,我喜歡哪些型號呢? 

我認為有幾個很不錯的型號會引起我的注意。對於那些夢寐以求的錶款,我喜歡Daytona Rainbow 彩虹迪通拿。對於我能負擔的,像是 1675 GMT tropical錶盤、16618 Lapis 或Onyx 潛水錶、16519 隕石錶盤迪通拿,又或者是簡單的 16528 黑或白錶盤。這就是我喜歡的勞力士。 

對於古董錶,是的,我喜歡,但那些是收藏品,不是真正的日常配戴。 

除了勞力士,我應該留意哪些其他手錶品牌呢?當然是卡地亞 - 單按鈕白金計時碼錶、Santos 實金表或 Pasha Salmon錶盤實金或不銹鋼。 

江詩丹頓,海外系列 42042 Salmon 錶盤,我認為這些都是美麗的作品。 

愛彼 - 星輪、皇家橡樹 15202、5402 鋼。Patek 3700, 3800 Pink Gold, Vacheron Constantin 222 steel or yellow gold. 

這裡提到的價格均為港元。

HK Snob

What is your next purchase on your Rolex in 2024

 Rolex GMT Master II Pepsi with Jubilee bracelet Ref 126710BLRO

Well. A great topics that many people wish to know.. there are ways to probe what we should consider to buy, if you are Rolex connoisseur, probably you will be interested to know what is next Rolex watch to buy.

In recent month, we can see the new Pepsi Ref 126710BLRO price is getting higher and higher, dealer trading price is $182,000 and even an 2021 NOS Pepsi Jubilee is around $150,000.

In 2023 The price if new Pepsi Jubilee bracelet was about $155,000.

As we have rumour that this Pepsi would be discontinued soon or someone is trying to buy up this particular model to boost the price of Rolex? As usually Rolex will not announced any discontinuing of watch in middle of the year unless for exception.

So what do you think of this watch? This had been in the market for about 9 years, and I think the early NOS version of People is likely more collectible as the Red colour on the bezel is pinky red like a cheery.

Milgauss Green glass blue dial 16400GV

Milguass is not always the top most sough after Rolex model in the years, however, note that  special one would be an exception, first of all, green glass, second the blue dial and

Rolex Daytona 116520 While dial.

This particular model price had been dropped a lot a naked watch could be found at about $125,000 to $130,000 and a full set with box and papers is about $150,000 to $160,000

Note that the P, K and Y series is particularly a target fir you ad these three years watch dial were prone to be changing colour to yellow or creamy I have noted a few good example of P series Year 2001, I bought in 2020 a $300,000 full set from Italy, and the price rose up to $800,000 in 2022.

The way it appears is astonishing as the dial is slightly creamy, no need to shine under the sunlight at various angle to show, it is already is a “Painted Dial as yellow”. Why only “P”, “K’ and “Y” series is likely to turn to yellowish dial most likely thee three years dial was subcon-ed into some Rolex.

Of course we can look for the beast Daytona Le Mans 126529LN, but I think that is another level for connoisseur. Not for the ordinary me…

 

HK Snob

Interesting old newspaper advisement on watches

 Which one was most impressive to you when you saw them before?

Me is the Day Date of Rolex 

HK Snob

Copyrights of Alex Lee, K.L. Malaysia,  ask permission to forward and copy via me first. 

Straits Times newspaper advertisement on Rolex, Oct 1978

 

Note the first sentence “A Rolex watch is an investment.” 

CEO of Rolex had just announced Rolex is not an investment in April 2024! What do you think? 

This is a very interesting newspaper from 1970 and his implication yesterday may not 100% represent the value of the watch tomorrow. 

Check the price of the Chronograph is almost “cheapest” and is most expensive today! 

So what is the cheapest today may be most expensive after 10-20 years? I know my choice, how about you?  

Pls don’t forward or copy unless get the personal agreement from the Alex Lee KL, who still keep the original newspaper today, he is Rolex fan living in Malaysia!

HK Snob

Which Rolex model we should consider purchasing 2024?

Introduction I was wondering which Rolex model we should consider purchasing, as many of my friends and followers on my watch blog have inquired about this. 

Rolex CEO Jean-Frédéric Dufour recently spoke with the Swiss newspaper NZZ ahead of the Watches and Wonders industry trade show in Geneva, which he co-founded and serves as president. When asked about the current state of the industry, Dufour acknowledged that 2024 would be a "challenging" year for watch manufacturers.

Dufour cited several factors contributing to this challenge, including increased material prices, such as the cost of gold. "Rolex produces everything here at Swiss costs. The Swiss franc is a challenge," he noted. "The cost of raw materials has also risen massively. A kilo of gold was 18,000 francs, now it is 66,000 francs in Switzerland. " Dufour also mentioned that rising interest rates and the geopolitical situation are affecting consumer sentiment and spending. He emphasized, "I don't like it when people compare watches to stocks. It sends the wrong message and is dangerous. We make products, not investments." 

Bob's Recommendation, coincidentally, a recent article from Bob's Watches, a reputable source with over two decades of experience in the luxury watch industry, covered this topic. The Bob's Watches Editorial Team stands at the forefront of watch expertise and insight. As they are not based in Hong Kong, their perspective on the best models for the local market could be particularly interesting.

Submariner Models to Invest in: 

Ref. 116610LN, Ref. 16610, Ref. 14060, and Ref. 16613 are suggested as potential investment pieces. The newer models starting with Ref 12XXXX are 1mm larger, and the Ref. 16610, with its T25 dial, may offer better value and the potential for a more beautiful patina compared to the Ref. 116610. The Ref. 14060 no-date model is also a consideration, though the Ref. 16613 two-tone Submariner may be less popular in Hong Kong, as steel tool watches are currently more sought after by influential individuals. 

Oyster Perpetual Models to Invest in: 

Ref. 124300, Tiffany Blue and Green models are considered good collectibles, but their current prices, often exceeding HK$130,000, are quite high. However, the 39mm Oyster Perpetual models are expected to hold their value well in the future due to their limited production. 

Explorer Models to Invest in: 

While Bob's Watches recommends Ref. 14270, Ref. 214270, Ref. 16570, and Ref. 216570, I have a slightly different perspective. I believe the Ref. 16550 "Cream Rail" dial Explorer II and the Ref. 16570 white dial are noteworthy options, as the Ref.16550 can be quite expensive at around HK$240,000 for a well-preserved example, while the Ref. 16570 remains more affordable. 

GMT-Master Models to Invest in: 

I agree with Bob's assessment that the vintage Ref. 16750 GMT-Master offers a similar look and feel to the more expensive Ref. 1675, often at a significantly lower price point. Additionally, the Ref. 16760 "COKE" with its black and red bezel, also known as the "Fat Lady," may be worth monitoring, as its limited production run of just a few years could make it a desirable option if Rolex reintroduces a retro model in 2024. 

Date Just Models to Invest in: 

While the Date Just is an iconic Rolex model, particularly popular in the 70s to 90s, I personally favor the Ref. 1601 with its pie-pan dial and acrylic crystal over the later Ref. 16013, Ref. 16233, and Ref. 116233 models. 

Day-Date President Models to Invest in: 

 The Rolex Day-Date, often referred to as the "President's Watch," is the brand's flagship line and a highly sought-after model. Gold Rolex watches have recently gained relative value on the secondary market, and the Ref. 1803 is a top choice, particularly those with unique dial variations, such as the "Stellar" dial or precious stone accents. An example of a Ref. 1803 in white gold with a "Tiffany Blue" Stellar dial could potentially fetch around HK$500,000 on the market. 

Recommended Rolex Models to Invest In: 

Date Models: Ref. 1503 Ref. 1507 Ref. 15037 Ref. 15238 I don't have a strong interest in Rolex Date models. 

Sea-Dweller Models: 

Ref. 1665, especially the rare "Double Red" variant, which is considered the best Sea-Dweller model, though now very expensive Ref. 16660 Ref. 16600 Ref. 116600 

Air-King Models: 

Ref. 5500 Ref. 14010 Ref. 114200 Ref. 114234 I don't collect Air-King watches as it is the most basic Rolex sport model. 

Ladies Rolex Models: 

Ref. 69173 Ref. 69138 Ref. 169622 I don't collect ladies' Rolex watches. 

The Most Important Rolex Model: 

The Daytona My Preferred Daytona Models: 

Ref. 116508 "Green John Mayer" in yellow gold, which I believe is one of the best investment pieces, having risen to over HK$1 million in 2022 and currently available around HK$600,000, a price I expect will increase rapidly 

Ref. 16528 (with either black or white dial) powered by the Zenith movement 

Ref. 16520 "A" or "U" series with a patinated dial 

 Ref.116520 with a creamy dial (found only on "P, K, Y" series models) 

While the iconic Paul Newman Daytona (Ref. 6241) is the "King of Daytonas", it is more of a collector's item than a daily wearer. 

The models I've recommended here all feature sapphire crystals and can be comfortably worn every day. 

You may ask how about Ice Blue Platinum, well if you have extra money and you don't mind the 286 gram of weight. Go for it. 

In summary, my Rolex preference ranking is: 

Daytona, Day-Date GMT Submariner Deep Sea Sea-Dweller Explorer Date-Just Oyster Perpetual, 1908/Cellini Yacht-Master Sky-Dweller Air-King Date Ladies' Date-Just 

 HK Snob

When Watch price will start rising up again?

Certainly, let me dive deeper into the potential future dynamics of the watch industry and market: The luxury watch sector faces a complex challenge in reconciling strong macroeconomic indicators with the public's more pessimistic sentiment toward the economy. 

This disconnect could significantly impact consumer spending, especially on high-end discretionary items like luxury watches. One key factor to watch will be how brands adapt their strategies to this shift in market conditions. 

Swiss watchmakers may need to reevaluate their retail network, potentially closing some underperforming boutiques and relying more on direct engagement with loyal customers. 

Selective discounting or promotional offers could also help broaden their customer base beyond the most affluent collectors. The middle-class watch buyers, who make up a significant portion of the market, may become increasingly cautious in their purchasing decisions. 

They may adopt a wait-and-see approach, holding off on purchases until they perceive prices starting to rise again. Brands will need to carefully monitor this segment and find ways to reignite their interest without devaluing their products. 

 The role of supply and demand will be crucial in determining the timing and trajectory of the market's recovery. If brands can strike the right balance - not overproducing, but making sought-after models readily available - they may be able to rekindle consumer enthusiasm. 

However, attempts at a "hunger sales" strategy could backfire if handled poorly. Beyond the global dynamics, the specific challenges facing the Hong Kong market are noteworthy. 

As a former top destination for Swiss watch exports, Hong Kong has seen a significant decline in luxury buyers, particularly mainland Chinese tourists. This has led to store closures in prime shopping areas, further exacerbating the industry's challenges in the region. 

The South Africa Rolex office had been running for 76 years are closed. Ultimately, the watch industry's path to regaining momentum by Summer 2025 will depend on its ability to navigate these complex and interrelated factors. 

Brands that can effectively adapt their strategies, engage with customers, and manage supply and demand may be better positioned to weather the current storm and emerge stronger in the years to come. 

HK Snob