Strategy for buying watch at 2H 2022

 I think I have some idea if I suppose a watch collector towards what watches to buy in 2H of 2022.

Stay away from new watches of Rolex, Patek, AP and even VC as they are still hard to get and still all over MSRP unless those models that is not in the hype.

Try to find some of the best dress watch you like from these four brands, as they are easier to get.

If you don't like dress watches, then I think you can forget it.

Try to buy at good price from the vintage market for those watches that is likely holding up prices in coming ten years, and those you would like to wear frequently.

Patek Annual calendar, Calatrava, AP's Offshore the early one as that may be the hit by 2023 the Offshore's 30th anniversary, Vacheron Constantin's Overseas Generation One and Two. Rolex Daytona 116520 P series creamy,  Daytona 16520 W, U or T series, Fat lady 16760 Coke, Rolex Pepsi 16710, Explorer II Creamy Polar 16570 or 16550. 

These are still available in the market with a reasonable price, but I am sure their price will go up later on.

HK Snob

It is time to buy some other watches that is more affordable with discounts

When price of Rolex is down 40% now comparing with 1 year ago.

What is Rolex AD is doing to change the situation? Nothing can be done.  Instead they may increase price again in 2023.

What is Patek, AP, VC’s Price, they can’t escape the price drop, may be less serious as Rolex.

Still price drop is more than 25-30%.

Being a watch lover, what shall I do?

Patek, AP, VC does not recognize me as a SVIP as I really don’t have good sales records in each of their AD.

Rolex? Yes, I did buy quite a number of pieces, may be 15 to 20 pieces just in one AD. This AD is also changing their strategy by their manager directly to his “preferred client” so basically I can’t get any watches at SRP from them

Luckily I am not too crushed on their new watches, instead I like more of their great vintages…so I think I am not losing any opportunity as I am not their “preferred client” except the Vachreon Constantin 222, as I really like this 2022’ s 222.

If I were the watch lover, I will focus on some of the classic vintage such as Patek “Perpetual calendar”,

AP Royal Oak early pieces such as 15300, 15202, 5402, Havana Chronometer, Patina dial Royal oak of 37mm. As for Vacheron Constantin, I love Overseas 42042 37mm as it is still being underestimated, or Overseas Gen 2, I have one but never use it as I don’t like his size, it is too large…as for Overseas Gen 3, I like 2300V as it is 37mm. just right… Of course it depends on your wrist size, mine is perfect for a 37-39mm watch…

How about Rolex, well, seriously, Rolex is just a good quality tool watch, nothing could surprise me in their Innovation, design and history… If not able to get it, just pass it… does not matter anymore…

As for Vintage, some of Rolex 1675, 1680, 16520, 16550, 1665… those with Sapphire glass is good as for their water proof function is superior to be use every day.

Besides, there are still a lot of beautiful watches from Cartier, Breguet, Panerai, IWC, Jaeger LeCoutle, why we have to limit ourselves to Rolex only. and we can enjoy some discount on certain models.

Some Cartier less 15-30%, some IWC less 15-30%,  some new Tudor less 20-40%, Panerai less 20-40%! Why not?

 Buying a watch is to wear it, appreciate it and not keep them in vault waiting for their value to go up, that may take a long process. It does not worth for the watch to be used in this manner.

My opinion only.

HK Snob

Rolex Bubble

Still many people talk about there is no seen evidence that Rolex watch price will move up from it lowest dip now. 

I don't know if that is so bad as of this time. well, there is a Rolex price threat by 2008 Leman Brothers and 2019 COVID -19.

This time the dip is going to the untouchable bottom, but I think everything must have one end, after that it will move it. Whether in September or December 2022 only.

HK Snob

Paul Thorpe comments on his you tube

 Today You tuber Paul Thorpe has mentioned  a few things:-

1. Rolex will increase price by 8% in 2023.

2. Rolex will not use any leather on his watches.

3. UK and USA is his biggest export countries.

4. Rolex is running at full production now.

Paul is one of my favorite you tubes channels on watches. well, he had mentioned two weeks ago that

by September the Rolex price will start to move up instead of keep falling.

by my understanding, only if Russia-Ukraine war comes to an end or the Rolex price is still facing with 

obstacle to rise again.

Let's see 10 days later what President Xi and Biden would talk about ? That may give us some hints on 

what Rolex price would be.

HK Snob

Today Hong Kong Market price of Rolex, Patek Philippe, Audemars Piguet, Richard Mille and Vacheron Constantin Overseas

 Daytona Ceramic Panda 116500LN white $260,000 (119)

Daytona Ceramic Panda 116500LN Black $240,000

Daytona White 116508Ng $560,000

Daytona 116519g Black white gold $325,000

Daytona 116509NG white $459,000

Date Just Wimbledon 126331 Oyster $112,000

Date Just 126334 Black oyster $85,500

Date Just 126331 Sundust oyster $99500

Submariner 126613LB Blue $125,000

Submariner 126613LN $135,200

Submariner Starbuck 126610LV $150,000

Pepsi GMT Master 126710BLRO $160,000

DeepSea 126660 Black $103,000

OP 124300 Tiffany $240,240

OP 124300 Red $146,000

OP 124300 Silver $60,600

Audemars Piguet

15500ST Black $395,000 (533)

15500ST Grey $385,000

15500ST White $385,000

Patek 

5167A $580,000 (463)

5168G $800,000 (189)

Vacheron Constantin 

Overseas 4500V/110A-B128 Blue stainless $300,000 (466)

Overseas Mid size blue 2300V $240000 (13)

The unit shown here is HKD. We are talking about all brand new watches, used watch is not being covered here.

The Bracket shows the search result of that watch at Chrono24 which means ow rare it it...

Good reference for what you want to buy for future as rarer pieces is more preferred by me.

These are the price as of Today  24 July as an average trading price in the market, I am not talking about MRSP price which is not so much of a meaning unless you re SVIP who can het at directly from Boutique.

Note that these price Have been dropped about 25-40% over the last 6 months and the trend is still dropping

Speed of dropping fastest is Rolex, then Patek Phillippe, AP and least is VC  ,meaning that these Rolex and Patek were flipped more than Audemars Piguet and Vacheron Constantin.

How about RM, since RM is running in a comparatively small volume, and they re dominated by smaller groups of end user, they price is not really dropping too much.

Many peoples speculate that the price will see an end of dropping by September but some of the dealers are saying that it will happen end by December, so it is a bit [pessimistic, I am speculating that Rolex watch price will be stabilized by September.... but of course purely my personal thoughts, as I don't have a crystal ball to tell.

HK Snob

The difference of Vacheron Constantin Overseas Generation 1 Ref 42042 and 42040

 On and off we can see there is Overseas ref 42042 and 42040 which state also same 37mm diameter.

So what is the difference between this models? We can refer to the attached table. More ever 

according to the official reply to one of their watch fan, telling that Ref 42042 has a stronger and thickness movement which is more suitable as the movement on a sport watch.

As for dial, the early one is sigma, then T Swiss T, and the replacement dial Swiss made.

So the price of Ref 42042 and 42040 has a big price difference of about 30%.

How to tell your watch is Ref 42042? You can check the bracelet is engraved with "423J" that should be 42042.

How about Ref 42050, that is having a 35mm diameter Overseas. So the price is even lower.

HK Snob

When Rolex price will start to get back to normal?

 Today I visited some of the watch shops at CKE, TST of Hong Kong.

We talked about when the next Rolex price up will be?

I think September as by then the Russia Ukraine war should come to an end if not should 

be come to a resolution to stop.

Biden should find a way o sit down talking to President  Xi on how to get things moving on such that his seat at White House would be kept warm in November.

If that Russian war is settled , European, USA inflation will be having a way to be reduced. 

By then China had been fully recovered on it production capacity to regain momentum for chasing best GDP for the year.

And if so, the people will start to spend money on more or less more on luxury goods .

I pray for that... Let's see, only two months to go.

HK Snob

When Rolex price up?

As more and more people is asking me when Rolex Price is up again.

Is it the lowest price now?

What I see that when HSI is at this 22000 point, US and UK inflation is highest over the last 40 years. 

No such good news of Putin will hand shake with Ukraine President?

I think the Rolex price is still going down further in July at least

I can't tell as I don't have crystal ball on when Rolex price is up again.

When you can afford and when it is not lowest, there is a good deal found, it is time to buy. IMHO

HK Snob

Watch bubble bursts?

 Until the day I am writing, watch price still does not stop dropping.

Always if the market is bad, people is scary to buy and the whole dealer or seller or grey dealer may go for panic sale. so this avalanche effect would further spoil the market.

Johnson is facing large scale strike in UK led by the trainer worker across the country, they have been facing the work inflation over the last 40 years, on the other side of the continent, Biden is scratching his head what should he do on one side putting sanction on Shinjiang Uyghur products into USA and other side knee down begging to meet Xi. On the other side USA is sending his Japanese little brother to join with  Korea with the new president to give trouble to the Eastern water, don't forget Korea and Japan is never a friend for the last 100 years. so internally there are Okinawa citizens coming up protect again Fumio Kishida. and South Korean are not happy with Yoon Suk-yeoi's new move. 

Watch price will not be affected by world political situation, to certain extend is less as prominent as stock markets and consumer's products because it is classified as luxury product which is by right the last resort of monetary asylum.

Both Eastern and Western countries are in great trouble, and Russia does not seem to stop the war now as one way to change the world, and China and Russia seems getting closer...

anyway this is purely mu opinion on the world current situation, back to the watches.

I see trade between dealer on these watches

Patek Aquanaut 5167A is $595,000

AP 15500ST Royal Oak auto 41 mm white dial is $370,000

Daytona white 16500 is now $270,000

Comparing with 2021, it has been dropped over 20% on PP, AP and Rolex as an average, vintage even worse no one watch to buy 1680, 1665, 16520 at the market price unless very special watches.

What s next? 

Watch out for next two months.

HK Snob

Unit here is HKD

Courtesy picture from Italian Watch Spotter

AP House visit with my Royal Oak Ref 5402BA

This is my second time re-visited AP house, I had another experience. As for this time I feel I was being properly treated. I was meeting with a supervisor who actually I knew her when she was with other watch brands 5 years ago. 

She could say this is a 5402 A series! Surprisingly this is a difference between a supervisor and other staff. knowing me that I like vintage watch, she gave me two heavy books for my reference. Then she mentioned that this watch may be handled by la brassus factory for complete service. I saw a decent  service there, immediate i put down my another 1997 Offshores for completed service.

She told ne the service charges of the 5402 is about HK$100,000. Well, regarding the sentimental value and economical value of this watch, I said OK. 

The issue is 6 months, I told her I have no concern on the delivery time just not to further polish that watch and don't change the dial as this is the soul of this watch...

Well, to be a successfully company, customer handling is key... I think this time AP is doing the right thing.

HK Snob

When watch price will go up again?

Many people questions when watch price will go up again.

This is a big topic which is also a challenge o many of the financial guy for watch trades.

I think the basic need for watch to regain its price momentum is, no more war, no more crazy inflation at like US nowadays. 

Also people will have good political stability in all major Western and Eastern countries.

If US is still treating his up coming second strong country as an emerging target of conflict then this watch price will never go up again!

Uncle Sam should sit down talking to Chinese on how to create a better community of shared future of the mankind, instead of using sanction or military threat to stop other country's development and growth... stupid.

Anyway this is watch log not political forum. 

HK Snob

HK Watch Fever's Carousell site

 If you wan to see what product I am let go , you can follow my Carousell "@Paul_ip2020"

Thank you for your support.

HK Snob

Rolex Price keeps dropping

Rolex Daytona white 116500LN was selling at $460,000 beginning of the year, today they are worth about $280,000. 

Hulk Ref 116610LV NOS was $280,000 and now it is about $200,000.

Hulk used one with Ref 116610LV is now $140,000 which is 30% lower than January 2022.

What is Patek and AP price, well, they are also affected too.

Many people ask me when the price will be up again?

I think it depends when the Russia-Ukraine war will come to an end.

And COVID is being not an issues in Asia, the economy will be pushed up and people will be having their money released for spending.

take for an example, Hong Kong, it is the place we are looking for cancelling the 7 days quarantine after coming back Hong Kong. then the whole Asian economy will be boosted like a Viagra to an horny old man.

I am expecting by end July the Russia Ukraine war shall come to a peace, I pray.

HK Snob

A visit to AP house with my Royal Oak 5402ba Jumbo

 After I made an appointment to AP house, I went with this Royal Oak 5402ba to see a young lady there at 5pm on 29 May 2022.  I was intended to overhaul the movement and change a new gasket only. She told me the watch is old and she had to find out their record, she had never seen this watch in he life. Well, I told her this is 5402, the first Royal Oak that changed the destiny of the Audemars Piguet against the Quartz crisis. She went to other area likely talking to some other staff three times, after 30 minutes and told me there there may have no spare parts for this old watch, And they need 6 months to do the job as AP is busy. Well, I told her what parts? She said spare part! I told her Audemars Piguet is supposed the No. 3 high end watch house in Switzerland after Patek Philippe and Vacheron Constantin... How come no spare?
Patek Philippe's CEO Thierry Stern had once mentioned that whatever Patek Philippe watch even back to 19 Century they still can provide spare part for it. I don't  blame her as she may be too new in her job, she is young about 28 wearing an AP white gold Perpetual Calendar watch worth HK$600,000 as she told me during the chatting. She asked me if I want to change a new dial, (how come she know that AP does still have the dial?) I said No, I need to keep the original dial. She asked if I need to polish the case and bracelet, I told her no, I wanted to keep the original condition of the watch. Preferably no polishing. 

She said, that watch can not be polished anymore as it is too thin already! (I told myself really too thin to polish? How much do you need to polish? 0.005mm? 0.02mm? 0.2mm?

OK after I saw the document , the description was NXX  (XX is my watch S/N, it should read No XX on the back of my watch. on the Watch Description; it was written "39mm gold watch with bracelet. I told her should be "Royal Oak 5402 39mm with bracelet... : it too late as it was 5;55, 5 minutes before they closed. So I told her well, I would like to take it back and make another appointment for visit again.

That was a wonder experience, i feel a bit hesitate to send the watch to AP House to overhaul. But After all who can do it for me? Private watch smith I guess. But I do like to send it to AP Switzerland for best attention on it.

Aftermath

I remembered I was invited to join a new watch fair at Audemars Piguet IFC back in 2018, And I saw a 5402 Royal Oak in yellow gold was housed inside a window box for display. I talked to one of the VPs from Switzerland who told be me still have three NOS (new old stock) JLC 2121 movement under his own possession. This is the movement being used inside the 5402. The 2121 movement is very reliable and one of the best movements in the 70s. Later in 1976, Patek Philippe also took the same movement to be housed in their legendary watch "The Nautilus 3700". I don't know what spare they don't have again,. this puzzled me until now...

Anyway I shall have another appointment in AP House again soon... let's see if that could be another wonder experience for me.

HK Snob

The new Philippine President Ferdinand "Bongbong" Marcos Jr.,

To the President of the Philippines, Ferdinand "Bongbong" Marcos Jr.,                           

First of all, Congratulations of your success by the majority of the wills of the People of the Philippines; you won 31.6 million votes or 58.8% of the total, making you the first president in decades to secure a mandate from a majority of the electorate.

You will be able to lead the country for another prosperity of 5 years and more years to come under your great leadership. 

With my warmest regards and wish you all the best.

Paul Ip

What does this AP Royal Oak worth?

 An original water colour sketch of a Royal Oak by Gerald Genta in 1972 was just sold with HK$4m in a recent auction, I don't know one of the first 100 pieces of the actual Audemars Piguet Royal Oak in solid 18KT gold would worth?

HK Snob