The Luxury Watch market and demand in 2022

At this midst of Russia-Ukraine war, US is manipulating his remote hands between two giants in the East and West to maintain for his hegemony.  On 14 March, US national security adviser Jake Sullivan raised concerns about China’s alignment with Russian in a seven-hours meeting with Chinese diplomat Yang JieChi as Washington warned again of the isolation and penalties Beijing… Warning again? LOL!

Quite obviously we can see watch market has been slow down in end Feb. till now, as most of the dealers are liquidating their funds to keep the purchasing power for new watches after Watches and Wonders 2022 by 30 March. Some of the current deals are good if you had the hard cash, but who knows what shall it happen on April?

Well, I am optimistic about the watch markets, especially the Big Four or Big Five watches. However many of my friends, Bloggers, dealers, collectors are on panic sale in these two weeks.

Refer to Morgan Stanley Research, we can have a glimpse on what has been showed from 2020-2021 on Swiss watches performance…

At the beginning of COVID-19 Rolex had been shut down some of the production in 2019 with output about 700,000, However on 2020, they have ramped up their production to 810,000, and even with 1,050,000 in 2021. Refer to the attached chart, Rolex had reached 8B CHF in 2021. Followed by Cartier with 2B, Omega, Audemars Piguet over taken Patek become No. 4 with 1.6B, follow up with Richard Mille and Vacheron Constaintin… What I have noticed is that amongst these big players, Rolex had almost double its revenue in 2021 comparing with 2020, Well, Vacheron Constantin is the second biggest growth in revenue about 40%, may be the Overseas and FiftySix are gaining attention of those who cannot get Nautilus and Royal Oak at all.

Base on these figure if say the Luxury watch definition is US$5,000 to US$50,000. There is not too many Luxury watches falling into these range from these top ten watch maker of Switzerland. Take for instance, Switzerland produces 6M watches a year in 2021, there is only a fraction of them going into the “Luxury Category” may be only 20%, that is about 1.2M watches a year.

Do you think 1.2M Luxury watches will be more than enough for those discerning client all over the world?

Don’t ignore that there are about 5M new Millionaires with asset of over US$1m created in 2020. So every year there will be 5M-7M people coming into this Luxury market. They are never short of cash just

many of those are FOMO of those Nautilus, Royal Oak, Aquanaut, Overseas, Daytona and RM.

So I am sure that the so called Watch bubble will not burst at least within the year 2022.

HK Snob

 

 

Audemars Piguet Royal Oak 25770ST In Orange

 This is a 1997 Audemars Piguet Ref 25770ST 42mm Offshore. 

Its super smooth, quiet and accurate with less than 1 second gain a day in these two weeks.

It comes with an Archive paper, and the original box and booklet.

HK Snob

The 50th Anniversary Audemars Piguet Royal Oak Ref 15500 in Blue 2022

Audemars Piguet Royal Oak ref. 15550 50th Anniversary 37 mm

This is the 2022 new releases AP Royal Oak, 50^th anniversary after Audemars Piguet launched the first Royal Oak in 1972.

With a refined design wider bezel, deeper chamfer on the edge, notably that the size is diminishing as other major brands going to be small and thinner.

This is 37mm, well, back in 5 year ago, no one could expect size like this would be the trend. Additional models in 41 and 34 mm (for ladies) will be available in the second half of 2022 to continue the Royal Oak Jubilee. For now, the new 37 mm models are only available in stainless steel or in stainless steel with a diamond-set bezel.

Colour

·       Royal Oak ref. 15550ST.OO.1356ST.01 with silvered dial

·       Royal Oak ref. 15550ST.OO.1356ST.02 with Bleu Nuit, Nuage 50 dial

·       Royal Oak ref. 15550ST.OO.1356ST.03 with ruthenium grey dial

·       Royal Oak ref. 15550ST.OO.1356ST.04 with light blue dial

 

I like the Light blue if I could get it as this looks the colour of Tiffany blue.

This is not the same profile as the first Royal Oak 5402 Jumbo 39mm, 7 mm thick. This is 37mm diameter with 8.9mm thick.

There is no “automatic” printed on the watch. It is Automatic with the new Audemars Piguet calibre 5900. Composed of 186 parts and 29 jewels, the automatic calibre 5900 provides a power reserve of 60 hours when running at a frequency of 28,800 vph. Eye Catching features of the ‘50-years’ oscillating weight in rhodium-toned 22K pink gold which will be fitted to all watches during the year 2022. What if the watch on 2023? No such “50^th-Years” Possible, as AP would create a super hype on this model!

I can’t decline they are wrong being a watch company, “50^th anniversary” is a big event.

With the new Audemars Piguet calibre 5900 also comes a slightly thinner case construction measuring only 8.9 mm in thickness which is definitely an upgrade from previous models.

SRP Price $24,100 USD (HK$188,000) and $33,200 USD with Diamond-Set Bezel.

Availability, unless you are SVIP, or there is difficulty to get one at SRP, probably by end of the year the market price of this watch will be going up to HK$2,000,000 if they have only One-year production! With the 50^th anniversary feature on the rotor!

Related size from other major brands

Rolex Explorer I Ref 124273, 36mm

Vacheron Constantin 2300V 37mm

HK Snob

Courtesy pictures of Watch collection lifestyles

Watches and Wonders 2022

Watches and wonders 2022 is to be commenced on 30 March, 2022. Most of the watch collectors are expecting there may have new watches as usual that they are expecting to buy and watches catch their attention. So some people are consolidating cash preparing to chase the new watches. 

Most dealers are not buying in watches and try to dump these slow moving stocks for cash. 

So this is an observation period for buying good watches you like but those watches in hype is still not cheaper.

I don't have much expectation on Rolex as they are knowing only manipulating at combination of colour of bezel, choice of material and size changing plus 1 or minus 2 mm, well, I am more in focus on some of “lost” pieces 20 or 30 years ago.. That is my fun part of watch treasure hunt!

HK Snob

16 Green Watches produced in 2021

These are known green or olive dial watch produced and released in 2021.

Most of them are available except only 170 pieces of Patek Nautilus in green is available to "public". The first one was sold with HK$6.0m.

Amongst those I like the 36 mm Rolex Date Just Palm 126234 which is rare to be in the market. 

I had also these, JLC Reverso, Breitling X2 pieces, Zenith Safari Olive.

Oris Cotton candy was fun watch to buy too, I think I bought three blue and two Green.
Cartier Solarbeat is a new technology that the power storage device need to be serviced only after 16 years! 

Besides Patek Nautilus, what is the watch that you think their future value may go up more than three times?

HK Snob

Panerai 5218-201/A

If you ask me what is best Panerai, I have no hesitation to say those made before 1996, before Richemont bought Panerai in 1996. This was made in 1993, pre-Vendom 201/A so called. 44mm, manual winding, non-matching hands. Original blood of Penerai it is Simple, large and tough. I like it so much. It was serviced by Victor Ku and I found that the watch was so accurate, within 1.5 second a day as average! The dial had been changing slight brownish. I think I can enjoy a lot with this piece of watch. 

HK Snob

Watch Investors

Thanks for the current investors believing me and Yes, Chinese do business base on long term TRUST!

Thank, R, P and J... thanks

I think I have enough investment and investors more than I can handle.

Wish you all the best.

HK Snob

Scammer Marco Chan

This is Marco Chan, a Wing Chun teacher, aged 66, he wears wigs on this picture. He took my three Rolex Watches for assignment sales but he pawned it in the next day in Hong Kong. We have reported to Police and filed such a case already at Sham Shui Po Police station. He was a WANTED person of the Police but could not find him in the past two years. So he might be not in Hong Kong. The purpose of this post is to let you know this person and not let him to cheat you anymore.

HK Snob

Scammer TK Wong

 

This isn't a movie star or singer but 100% a nasty con man, Mr.TK Wong, HKer and Cantonese speaker. His nickname is "Prince"!

Who I believe is in China now.

He took my money estimated about HK$100,000.00 under a series of small transactions for selling me Supreme goods, such as Supreme Motor Bike, Fridge, cups, camera, weight scale, cart... in November 2021. The promised shipment day was December but until now, nothing had been shipped. He is supposed the man holding Carousell account "Easytokyo" selling Supreme goods, but I really don't know if he is a hacker to Carousll account or not.

So if you had any business with him, or going to have business with him, just beware, he WILL take your money and will disappear.

HK Snob

Looking for investor and fund

Whatsapp me if you are interested in.

HK Snob

852-51229994

 

Presidents' watch Rolex Day Date 1803

The flag ship series of Rolex is not Daytona, not Submariner, it is the Day Date. 
Day Date was launched in 1956. during this 66 years of production, they have made a lot of beautiful watches that bring us pride, joy and long term value.

Rolex has been producing many fascinated watches using kinds of stone, Onyx, bloodstone ferrite, coral, Lapis Lazuli, tiger eye, malachite, wood, MOP, meteorite ...etc as the dial material.

Even the launch of 2012 Skydweller which carries a new in house complicated movement with Date, Month but no "Day" as Rolex does not want to touch of its own prestige line of "Day Date".

HK Snob

Buying luxury watches over property to hedge inflation

China’s enthusiastic property investors are turning their attention to luxury watches as a better store of value in the face of slowing economic growth and President Xi Jinping’s intensifying campaign against housing speculation.

In fact there is more evidence to tell that why Rolex, Patek Philippe, Audemars Piguet, Vacheron Constantin and Richard Mille are being used as a hedge against inflation. Many middle class Hong Kong people have stored up more buying power as they are not able to spend their money on travelling, outgoing for big dinner during these two years COVID lock down, moreover, they are having more time to search for alternative items for their money outlet.

Really there is a lot of attraction for buying Watch than property

1.Buying/selling luxury watches are simple, no need to go through law firm or signing any legal document

2.No commission between seller buyer, but may have commission 6.5% at Chrono24

3.The turn-around time is just a 3-6 months for Rolex whereas property takes 3 -5 years for good yield

4.You can store you watches at home or a vault in bank

5.No tax involved in buying or selling, no need to declare income tax

6.No maintenance fee for watches

7 Very low risk base on these two years trade records provided you are buying the right models

8.The trading amounts is starting from HK$150,000 which is having lower amount that most people can afford, as for a real estate entry fee is a few million HK dollars.

9.Here I don’t mention Vintage Rolex as they are requiring a lot of product knowhow. Some exceptional rare expensive items may go for Auction for higher return.

Watch is a new currency now as you can carry a watch of US$1m out to any country.

Selling to dealers

Direct to dealer with cash, they buy fresh watches preferable within two months but profit is lower as they trade in volume. There are about 600 dealers in Hong Kong.

Selling to end user

The profit is higher but you have to know the ways

Trade security is also important if you don’t know the buyer as we always prefer trade with cash, which is simple and easy.

Many commercial channel can help you on this fb, IG, Carousell, fb market place, Chrono24, Watch box… etc

HK Snob

 

Rolex Tiffany Blue cyclone

With last auction on Patek Philippe 5711 Tiffany Blue hit a hammer price of US$6M, 

Rolex's OP Tiffany blue Nautilus price had been increased immediately in the market high up to HK$350,000. as of now their price is still moving between HK$265,000 to HK$285,000.

I had an hunch to look for some substitutes with Tiffany Blue element from Rolex...

In December 2021, we bought the first Day Date 36mm Ref 128348RBR-0037 turquoise with HK$497,500 for my Philippine investor. 

Four days later, I bought for another HK Investor with HK$540,000, already up HK$42,500!

After one month, another famous HK collector bought one with HK$650,000.

So what is the price now?

From Today's Chrono24 we can find 9 pieces

With price of 6 pieces from lowest HK$575K to highest HK$711K and three is "Ask price"

Take an average the price is HK$658,000!

Base on this the first bought one with $497,500, we entitle a price increase of HK$160,000.

That is a 32% appreciation on paper. 

This is the Tiffany Blue Cyclone... and this is not just a simple printed dial, it is finely selected piece of Turquoise, lapped down to a thickness of 0.25mm, polishing it to the required flatness. 

Check for any microcrack, if not then, Laser cut a trapezoidal window and a rectangular window for the Day and Date wheel display. Inspect again for any cracks. if not then.

Drill with 20 tiny holes for inserting the hour index, 

Drill a larger hole at the centre for the hour and minuet hands.

If there is any flaws nor micro crack, the whole dial will be discarded and have to remake again.

These are tedious works and Rolex can only produce say 10-20 pieces a year.

So I speculate that by Autumn 2022, The market price will be reaching HK$1,000,000.

HK Snob

Remarks 

Rolex SRP or Ref 128348RBR-0037 turquoise is HK$447,200 

 

Price race of new and vintage Rolex watches

Obviously we can see there is a drop of demand on Vintage Rolex, so as their price is adjusting towards lower side whereas the new Rolex price is jumping up astonishingly fast! Their price are running in opposite directions.

Vintage Rolex collection

Too much knowledge on Vintage Rolex Collection to tell and there are too much tricks from the dishonesty sellers.

Is that the original bezel of your 1979 Rolex Submariner, or arguable MK III of Mark IV of your GMT Master. This is puzzle to some of the newbies or green Rolex collectors.. But it would affect the price significantly. Though this had not been the role of Rolex to tell you.  Since Rolex announced that don’t want to authenticate vintage watch at RSC in 2020, that would give a negative impact to the vintage Rolex Market. 

More people would prefer buying new Rolex or neo-vintage instead of vintage.

Such as Daytona 116500LN or 116520, their earlier generation 15620 Daytona would be the cut off line of new and vintage Daytona. Daytona 16520 price had stopped rising up as fast as 116520… not mentioning older Daytona such as 6253, 6265.

Similar case of Vintage GMT master 1675, more people preferred buying 16710 as they are known to be less “troublesome or arguable” on the watch market.

New Rolex

All new Rolex price has been shot up 30% in past 6 months.

New Daytona gold watch on silicon strap is $500,000 or more

New Daytona gold watch on gold bracelet is $700,000 or more

New Daytona green 116508 is now $800,000-950,000

New Daytona steel 116500 White is $400,000!

How about the colorful OP 124300 41mm

Well, Tiffany blue is still leading the race $275,000

Red is $140,000, green and yellow is $135,000.

So what is your choice in this Rolex Price Race?

I always buy those watches that is currently understated and keep them.

So what is your target in your mind now?

This was an interesting questions someone posted to me in the last few days

HK Snob

Remarks

Unit here is HKD, Hong Kong Dollars, 1 USD=7.76 HKD

Price shown here is just rough reference as they change everyday 

What is new trend for watch size?

I think we had a common preference for larger watch in 1998-2015, at that time we are looking for bigger watches starting at 40mm, 41mm, 44mm, for Rolex. we had such a prejudice on some of the "Small watches" such as 34mm to 36mm. I can say the cut off line was 36mm, as anything smaller than 36mm is classified as "Small",  36mm-40mm is "medium", 41-47mm is "large", there is exception that size like Audemars Piguet T3 is giant of 54mm!

By that time 2008-2014, we could see ladies with smaller wrist would go for Rolex Yacht Master II or Deepsea sea dweller Cameron 44mm,  and that was a hit.

Almost all the beautiful golden proportion dress watches in the range of 33-36mm were being boycotted as they say that is "too small" or even described as "dwarf ugly" so as their prices going low. If you were smart to buy off those good watches at that time, you are super rich now. As Breguet and Vacheron Constantin had made beautiful Tourbillon with 36mm in 2000. That was cheap to get by 2015 and now their price had been up at least 40%.

The time is changed and people is changing their taste and feel "bore"" wearing the bigger watches!

Starting from Panerai who used to make bigger watches started to slim down their watches in 2017.

By 2018 they launched a 45mm slimmer automatic 3 days watches limited 100 pieces,  1940 PAM00694, followed by 42, 40 mm for meeting the market demand.

Rolex launched a retro Explorer I with 36mm size 214270 in 2021 which is an iconic move of a traditional watch maker Rolex.

A price is reflecting the demand of the majority of watches collectors. the attached AP Perpetual Calendar is 36mm, I bought that in 2017 with $60,000 and I sold it to a gym manager with merely $57,000 in 2020. well, the people taste has changed rapidly and price of it rose significantly from $100,000 to currently $230,000. That is a great news for a small watch to come with, more people in favour of getting this beautiful watch.

In fact the most important thing is what you feel about the watch "appeared to be" on our hand.

Rolex Day Date 41mm is replaced with Day Date 40mm as their new Day Date line side by side with Day Date 36mm.  Also we can see the vintage Day Date 36mm price is gong up, that means more people is looking for smaller diameter format of the Day Date

On the other hand, Vacheron Constantin launched a 2300V which is 37mm diameter line side by side with a larger line 4500V 41mm. to meet the demand for both larger and medium size of the watches.

Now I think this is the size changes to smaller diameter by 3mm. 

Some of the watches with 37mm is not small at all.

Some of the watches with size 44mm is classified too large, really?

Again, size is one thing, matching your wrist is the another big thing.

More important is the dial design, some watches look as if it is very larger comparing with some watch with the same watch diameter of different dial design, also how the design of the lug width and bracelet would change the perception of how "large" or "small" the watch looks like.

Find a watch with the appropriate size is more important just the figure of diameter itself.

HK Snob

Updated price of Rolex hot models

 GMT Master Batman Jubilee Ref 126710BLNR $202,000

Starbucks Submariner 126610LV $200,000

DeepSea Sea Dweller 126660 Blue Black $147,000

Daytona 116500LN White $395,000

Date Just Palm 36mm 126234 $165,000

The price is insane and I always ask myself would this be a bubble?

My reply to the question is "Yes" But when the bubble will burst?

I told myself, I really don't know as imagine say a price of 2 Daytona White is the price of a second hand Ferrari  F430. 

Will you spend money on two Daytona or a Ferrari?

You make the choice.

HK Snob