What will be the watch market in 2022 Q1?

 

Discontinued model

Rolex Daytona steel 116500 was speculated to be discontinued by Jan 2021, price was raised to $310K highest ever by Dec 2020. Now the price of it is still moving around $280K. I think it will not be discontinued by Q1 2022.

Tiffany Blue

Since Patek Nautilus 5711 steel Tiffany blue hit a auction price of $40M. All watches come with Tiffany Blue because the target of all watch lovers, flippers and dealers, it reached price of $670K yesterday.

Today another seller is asking $1.8m! I can’t believe my eyes. Well, I think there might be people buying but there are still many cheaper offer from $200K to $600K… he has to wait for all the lower price watches been sold first. He may have patience to. But I cannot underestimated the operation fo Rolex

They might have controlled not to produce as many as Patek 5711 Tiffany blue 170 pieces.

That is killing all watch lovers and we think Rolex is the new currency now. Cash in bank gets no interests but Rolex can make 200% in one year.

What is next after Tiffany Blue?

I think there is a hidden diamond under the palm tree, yes the Date Just 126234 Palm green with jubilee bracelet as I have seen juts three pieces in the past 8 months in Hong Kong.

Well, I am looking for another one

General market situation

Generally we see more buying and trade in these November and December due to Xmas season and new year, and I think price is better for December, as no one want to keep a watch over the year, it will become 2 years old after December 2021.

If you want to buy watch from open market get it now, price is usually lower for Date Just or non-popular models. For those hot items, the price will be getting higher after January as factories are closing for Xmas and new year vacations.

HK Snob

Tiffany Blue magic 2021 on Patek, Rolex and UNDONE

On 11 Dec, 2021 Philips had an auction on a Patek Philippe Ref 5711 in Tiffany Blue with a hammer price of US$5.5M! It was a shock to most of the watch lovers and possibly not for some of the auction insiders. To me it’s a disappointment as it will be impossible for me to buy this piece of watch.

That is in fact another record high for a plain modern Nautilus stainless steel watch… there will be total 170 pieces of such watch will be made as the Company’s 170^th anniversary watch.

This was only trigger of the Tiffany Blue magic. Rolex had launched the OP 36 and OP 41 Tiffany blue in September 2020. 

That has two model ref 114300 41mm with SRP $46,400 and Ref 126000 36mm with SRP $43,400 only as the low price tag of all Rolex.

In the past 12 months, I have observed that OP41 was rising up to $140,000 whereas OP36 is floating around $120,000 for more than 3 months.

But after Dec 11 Philips Auction on the Patek Tiffany 5711 Tiffany blue, we have obviously seeing abnormal price up on these two Rolexes. Well, as of today, I could see the OP41 is selling from $250,000 to $679,000 that is over 14 times the Rolex SPR.

Even people speculate the price will further moving upwards further, but i cant tell as this is absurd price to me already. 

I think these are some of the reasons behind.

     Many people could not get the Patek 5711 Tiffany blue, in fact only 170 pieces of such watches will be made, so get hold of the Rolex OP41 or OP36 as second choice. Economy is still able to support the crazy price at this level.

I really cannot tell what is the next level of price up and the number of buyers actual had confirmed the order.  

Recently UNDONE has launched a Stella dial watches made of 316L steel DLC coated running with Seiko VK series Mecha Quartz movement, one is in Tiffany Blue and one in pink. They are produced under Limited number of 300 pieces each colour.

As a fan of UNDONE, I am the early bird to purchase through walk-in to the HQs of UNDONE at TST for two pieces both are under S/N 007/300, I simply like it as its nice in Tiffany blue colour, functional , sportive, and affordable for me. Price may be up soon but not as crazy as Rolex OP or Patek 5711 for sure.

So what is in your mind?

HK Snob

Rolex Tiffany Double name

These three watches were bought in 2020 Q1 with HK$630,000 from a private collector.

How much do you think it worth now? I think it is about HK$1,000,000!

HK Snob

Insane 2021, Crazy 2022

Watch market is hotter than ever which is what no one could expect two years ago. People keep saying bubbles burst... No, it never will because…as far as I know today.

The COVID-19 pandemic lasts more than two years with no indication when they could be come to an end, and all countries are forced to live with the virus except the great China. Pfizer vaccine drugs keeps selling their booster jab globally. What a boring period for most of the middle class, rich and poor.

Most countries’ tourism, airline, retail shopping industry died, people suffer from no travelling, no flying.

Air freight and food delivery business is blooming a few times over the last two years.

Real estate price is not as good as two years ago.

USA is printing money on 24 hour OT basis.

Many younger generation is putting a lot of speculation on, Bitcoins, NFT and Metaverse.

Someone bought some NFT and get $1m sold after two days, that is someone’s annual income…

US inflation is historically high and money is not money, Rolex is gold as what I am always saying…

What kind of investment you think you can do in these days as people need to spend their money before losing the value.

Nowadays someone on his fb page says Rolex is a new currency.

Well, watches are easy to sell, it is a kind of personal show-piece, an iconic display on your professional status, of course those who are wearing an RM going to a 5 star hotel with his Lambor handled by the valet parking. These people is bona fide SSVIP at Patek Boutique, who will be called to collect his 5712 five months after his last 5711R, whereby I had to wait for my son to collect a 5167 if I were lucky enough!

A RM, Patek, AP or even Rolex could easily reaching a price tag of 1.5m at grey dealers with their original MSRP of $300,000!

What can we do about it?

I am figuring how and I am going to give some tips on next article after discussion with a few watch collectors and investors.

Appendix some of the typical sample of watch price

Watch price Ref Daytona 116500LN was $210,000 in 2020, now $295,000.

Used AP 15300OR sold in 2020 with $160,000, now $300,000

Rolex 16613 Submariner Two tone Serti was $60,000, now $90,000

Rolex 126000 OP Tiffany Blue 36mm was $67,000 in 2020, now $120,000

Patek Aquanaut 5167 was $320,000 in 2020, now $495,000

HK Snob

Vacheron Constantin price is going up

 As we all know that Chrono24 price is good for a reference only as they do impose a service charge so sellers are likely mark up certain percentage on top if it.

I have been observing in these 9 months more people is talking about Vacheron Constantin mainly on its Overseas series.

As Rolex Daytona, Patel Nautilus and Roya Oak of AP price are very high, one who is looking next buy would be consider something else.

Vacheron Constantin Overseas has been selected as the next target.

We can see from these movement:

1. HK dealer groups have been more actively trade on Overseas

2. More and more website are talking about Overseas

3. The Blue Overseas is really built with full esthetic look.

4. Chrono24 price has been increase more than 40% since July till November for say the Generation one Overseas made between 1996 to 2003, especially in Blue dial.

Let's keep an eye on it.

HK Snob

Audemars Piguet 26000PT Perpetual Calendar in Platinum on sale

 AP 26000PT limited 90 pcs

Limited to 90 pieces

Watch only

running in great condition

HK$330,000

HK Snob

Chrono24 Price as reference

 For most of the watch seller, watch buyers are referring Chrono24 pricing as the price.

Well, in fact you can see that many of the watches posted on Chrono24 are not all fast moving items.

There are a few reasons, first of all Chrono24 watches sold are subject to Chrono24 charges of 6.5%.

So naturally many of the seller are marked up by 6.5% to 10% on Chrono24. That is why we should not take Chrono24 price as the current market price. I used to take the mean price then times 0.9 to be the market selling price.

Of course this is my way to check price of the world market price of the particular watches.

HK Snob

NOS with sticker 114300 39mm white dial on Sale

This is a 39mm 114300 White dial on sale

Price HK$88,000

HK Snob

Tudor 7928P on sale

This is a awesome Tudor Chronograph, just been renewed with new crystal, bezel insert, dial, and hands, also been overhauled with 2 years warranty by Tudor Service Centre, Hong Kong. 

Orange is super rare, you not even able to find one on Chrono24

Price HK$93,500

HK Snob

Patek Philippe Ref 5320G Perpetual Calendar

This is two Patek Philippe Ref 5320G bought for two different gentlemen who keeps this with me for investment.

This is Perpetual Calendar in creamy dial with 40mm dia. the SRP is HK$660,000. and I believe this watch value will go up to certain level after three years.

HK Snob

Vacheron Constantin

This is a  Vacheron Constantin Gen 1 automatic watch with 37mm dia excluding the crown.

NFS.

HK Snob

 

Brand name says it all

 You can see that is not right for swimsuit is not advised to use in water, but nevertheless they sell fast even at price tag of US$490. 

Because the brand name says everything 

HK Snob

What is next after Patek, Rolex and Audemars?

 This is recent post up on internet about the new role of watch that has been pulled up with prices.

Well, that is not my surprise as when Patek, AP and Rolex price is high enough to an astonishing level, people will start to look for replacement.

Although many people dislike what I am trying to say as they are base on the old market value of Vacheron on the past 5 years as a reference. But I can see the trading price of Vacheron is getting high in the HK watch trading groups everyday.

Of course the data is not lying by itself, Yes I know those Patek AP fans is not likely to hear that as this will dilute the buying focus towards these Patek and AP. 

Never mind, we should watch out.

HK Snob

New 2021 36 mm Explorer I Ref 124270

於今年年頭推出的新款Rolex Explorer 124270，從Explorer 214270 39毫米錶面，回歸至36毫米，當時不少人都紛紛憶起木村拓哉在《戀愛世紀》、《HERO 2》入面戴著的Explorer I。新款式黑色漆面錶盤上「3-6-9」這組數字仍然搶眼，源用Chromalight夜光顯示，指針及立體時標上均塗有夜光物料，載3日動存的Cal. 3230自動機芯。除不鏽鋼款外，亦引入黃金鋼款，以品牌獨有蠔式鋼10款Rolex男士入門錶款推薦

 

勞力士男士入門錶款推薦01 ：Rolex Explorer Ref.124270 

2021市場價格：約HK$72,000 – HK$98,000

2021官方售價：HK$50,000（不鏽鋼版）配上含有18K黃金的Rolesor物料，讓人耳目一新。

HK Snob

Luxury watch price in Hong Kong

Price of some luxury watches in Hong Kong

Rolex price is continuously to appreciating in the open market which I could day more or less controlled by dealers. Next Article will cover some of the dealers movement in Hong Kong.

While sales of these wristwatches dipped for a short period of time during the height of the pandemic in 2020, purchases have recently jumped higher. According to the FHS, a Swiss watch industry research group, Swiss watch sales were up 7.6% in July compared to the pre-pandemic baseline of 2019. Sales growth jumped a whopping 48.5% in the U.S. in July compared to 2019 levels, and even 75% in China. This is the best reply why Rolex price is insane high!

Rolex recently had announced that they will try to do the best to increase their production output at three of their factories in Switzerland. Rolex officially said they “Will TRY”….as there are a lot of quality control issue if they want to increase the output. Meaning is that be calm, the price will be still going up!

Patek Philippe

Well, it is getting worse we supply and demand is never been able to be in balance, demand is much higher than supply. An Aquanaut model 5167 used to be 1.6X of SRP $140,000 is now 3X high in the open market.

The Nautilus 5711, and or 5712 they are now lying in the range of 2.5X-2.7X of SRP.

Some special model such as Aquanaut 5968 Green, SPR is $330,000 and only we can buy with $1.3M in the open market!

Thierry Stern had mentioned that they will TRY to increase production output but he added, due to the need for certain skillful watch smith, normally it takes 20 years for bring up more skillful people to increase the volume of production… 20 years!

So this statement will ensure the grey market price of Patek will keep increasing…further at least for 10 years!

There will not be any chance to see the price lowered within the next two years, if there were geographic dispute between big countries, trade war with Switzerland, or war, of Wall Street economy slash or Political Chaos, in these cases. more speculators would dump more cash into this Patek as a security protection, price even would go up further!

Probably looking for something still undervalued today such as Vacheron Constantin as we noticed through all the dealer trading groups, that Vacheron is some of the frequent asked watches now after Rolex, Patek, Audemars… worth your thought now.

As for Richard Mille, there are few different idea, those who are having RM is likely to support emotionally and financially on the watch, those die hard old school watch lovers seems not being moved by the crazy price of RM as they still prefer those classic Luxury brands mentioned above. Others are swingers wo are watching and see if there is a chance buying good priced RM, but never can  at least for the up-coming 1-2 years.

HK Snob

Currency here is in HKD (Hong Kong dollar, 1 USD=7.75 HKD)

Hong Kong sellers and buyer

Hong Kong watch trade group, behavior and funny buyer practices

Here and there are a lot of way for people connected for watch sale, namely fb, IG, Carousel, WhatsApp groups, etc.

These are dealers that they have set up a lot of watch Whatsapp groups

1.        “HK dealer groups” (247)

2.        “HK serious watch dealer group” (247)

3.        “HK dealer Vintage and used group” (247)

4.        “HK dealer vintage and used group” (247)

5.        “Trusted dealer Europe” (246)

6.        “Watch jeweler and parts “(217 )

7.        “Audemars Piguet only” (136) 

(Bracelet shows the number of members in the group) 

The very first host is an Italian who started this in 2018. And many other people just copied and set up another group on their own and run.

For these groups you place two pictures and name a price and within few minutes someone will reply you if they want to buy.

These are mainly for dealers in Hong Kong and overseas. I think the daily trade volume is average HK$10M.

From these we can see roughly the trading price of Rolex hot models and on and off the most popular is Rolex, Patek Nautilus, Aquanaut and some AP, recently months Vacheron is coming up actively.

Carousell

This is in fact a good channel to trade, but this is not purely for watches, they have all other things such as toys bags, shoes, toys etc… so it is a bit confused, but never the less you can search the watches you want and with a few seconds you can see what you can buy.

Take note that you have to find those with high rating before you approach them, those without any trade record or without any good rating you have to be very careful as they might be scammer, and not a reliable buyer or seller. Everyone was once a beginner, they many have good people, but just be careful.

Funny response from the buyer:-

1. I really have heart to buy your watch, just I don’t have time!

2.   2.I like to take your offer, but my wife rejected me to buy!

3.   3.How come your watch does not come with warranty paper, is it a stolen watch.

4.   4. A few years back like 2016 someone had encountered a Australian asking a Rolex Submariner 116610LN and he quoted him price which is higher than MSRP by that time, he named as Simon was becoming insanely rude and said my friend was a scammer, and wanted to report to police.. my friend blocked him as he did not want to waste time explaining him at all.

5.  5.Recently there is one cases which was actively discussed in fb, there is a HKer guy who has a Daytona 116520 and asking HK$290,000

He will ask you to 100% transfer the money at his bank account, then he will show you the watch wearing on his wrist!

Wow, who will dare to do this silly things… as once money is transferred, he can run away.

6.  6. There is a buyer who had agreed everything that we will trade 2 days later with my effort to get the buyer…everything is fixed, but 24 hours before the transaction time, the seller called me he has sold his watch already. This is not a gentlemen's deal.

HK Snob