Will Rolex bubble burst?

There are numerous saying that Rolex Bubble will burst!

This is my understanding:-

1. Exponential rise in demand.

2. Increase interests in luxury watches in the general public.

3. Not just Hong Kongers, US, EU, but Chinese, Taiwanese, Singaporean, Vietnamese, Myanmar are coming to join this game.

4. A relatively small supply.

5. Money is nothing and bank interests is a joke comparing with the money invested on hot watches.

6. Record-breaking auction prices.

7. More collectors, celebrities, investors are treating watches as an investment.

8. Rolex and many other makers are shutting down factories and manufacturing facilities due to COVID-19.

9. Promotion from watch blogger, watch youtubers, watch sites.

10. Watch is a small, artistic, valuable items that can be used for show off as social status.

11. Watch itself can be a new currency for people to move their asset.

12. Watch trade is simple and easy, of course background check on buyer is needed.

13. Many people spend their time in watch trade during this COVID-19 as they can't travel, they have accumulated a lot of spending power.

14. Many middle class of Chinese are prioritizing watch to real estate as in investment.

Price of watches

The Rolex Hulk 116610LV is now $330,000, unbelievable high, Daytona 116500LN White is $400,000

Patek 5711R is $3m, 5712A-001 is $1.3M...

Will the bubble be bursted? 

I don't think so as watches like Rolex with all the inflated value on the 200,000 (not all Rolex watches is under the hype) hot watches made a year is just about US$1.5B, that is nothing as that is only one week's printed output of the Federal Reserve'  De La Rue money printing machines. 

HK Snob

 

 

Former Philippine President Ferdinand E. Marcos' Patek Philippe

This is a watch that was the properties of  former Philippine President Ferdinand E. Marcos

Birthday watch

Ferdinand Emmanuel Edralin Marcos, Sr. (September 11, 1917 – September 28, 1989) was President of the Philippines from 1965 to 1986.

To what I know Marcos time, while in power he implemented wide-ranging programs of infrastructure development and economic reform. At that period of time, Philippines was the second richest country in Asia. President Marcos has celebrated his 58th birthdays. Macros flew by helicopter to Barrio Pandi joined farmers harvesting rice, took breakfast in a hut with the peasant’s family and held a cabinet meeting under the shade of a mango tree. 1975 is a special year for the first family, as the First Lady was the guest speaker in the U.N. in New York for women's right before heading back to Manila for the president’s 58th birthday. It is key interests to know what essential watch he likes… Marcos was ahead of time wearing white gold as one of his preferred metal on watch. He loves Patek Philippe and Rolex watches.

Rolex  12

Rolex 12 is the collective name of twelve of the closest and most powerful advisers of President Ferdinand Marcos during the martial law years in the Philippines from 1972 to 1981.

During the latter years of his second elected term, Marcos conspired with various leaders of the military and Philippine Constabulary. The goal was for Marcos to gain full authoritarian control of the country during his declaration of martial law in 1972. Marcos gave the military leadership powers during martial law, taking over from democratically elected officials and court judges.

The origin of the name Rolex 12 came from a widespread story and some sources that each associate received a Rolex watch from Marcos himself, although this remains unverified. Some contend that the gifts were actually Omega watches, but despite this confusion, the name Rolex 12 stuck and is still used to refer to these twelve Marcos associates. Some of them fled with Marcos when he and his family left the Philippines in 1986, while others like Enrile and Ramos were instrumental in the coup against him.

History on this watch

We believe that this is a watch as a gift from his beloved Imelda. During his 58 years old birthday on 11 Sept 1975. And this watch was later given to one of the Rolex 12 members who fled to USA and sold into the pawn shop or jewelry buyers.

One of the US citizen brought that watch at Tourneau NYC with US$11,000 in 2009. He kept this watch and sent for Patek for a movement overhaul in 2013. And he contacted me as knowing that I am watch blogger and like to have this precious piece of watch, we had established discussion on selling the watch since 2013 till 2018 for 7 years. Due to tax and logistic concern, we did come up to a chance that I could get to a law firm amidst the hectic Makati city to buy this watch with certain amount of money directly from hands of his wife. I was so amazed.

The watch

It is a Patek Philippe Ref 3528/3

This Patek Philippe was entirely made in 18k white gold with a smooth and finely made mesh bracelet. A stunning Sunburst Anthracite dial. Length is uncut 7.75 inches. Manual winding movement. Ref 3528-3. With Patek Archive papers. This watch was produced by Patek Philippine in 1971.

This Patek Philippe watch has a 25.5 x 29.5 mm case with a rectangle caseback with stick dial. This is an exceptional piece of artworks from Patek Philippe. Condition is like super excellent, time taking is very accurate, the manual winding is ultra smooth.

A watch that was made 51 years old, but it is not outdated in shape and size at all as a dress watch. Of course the value is not just the watch itself but the memorial value of the most powerful man in the Philippines in the 80's. And, mots of all, this is a Patek Philippe.

We have been trying to contact Imelda but personally I don’t know her and naturally I had issue to contact her. Though I have two friends who know her in persons. but due to COVID- 19, Imelda did not show up at my friend's jewelry stores. My purpose is to ask to re-recognize his watch and sign a document to authenticate it.

We would like to sell it in public auction and would like to donate certain big portion not less than 50% to the charity of Philippines after deduction of all administration fee and auction commission. I believe this is one of the contributions from the former president to the people of Philippines.

HK Watch Fever

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Some of my watches are on sale

Patek 5396G with archive paper 

AP 26320ST 41mm Blue dial 2013 year, used (Sold)

Rolex 126334 Palm 2020 Full set with box

Rolex Yacht Master NOS full sticker with card and box (sold)

Rolex Day Date 1803 Watch only, dial is changed into brown slightly

Rolex Submariner 116613LB April 2020 watch, with card and box 99% new (sold)

Ask me more if you are interested on the above watches, additionally I have may other watches on sale.

Whatsappl 852-51229994

HK Snob
 

Rolex Date Just 126234 Palm

 This is Date Just Ref 126234 Palm in olive colour. 

I have seen only three such watch in the dealer groups and one in a Rolex boutique in 2021.

So I think this is a rare watch.

Due to the shortage of watches from Rolex, I think this particular Rolex will have a insane price over HK$150,000 in 2022.

Lets keep an eye on it.

Happy new year 2022

 It is the time when we reflect with gratitude on the past and set our actions for the days ahead. 

What's more, a new year gives us an opportunity to reinvigorate our enthusiasm for pursuit of goals and dreams.

Happy new year

HK Snob

Ladies' Rolex

 These are watches of these ladies : 

Hailey Bieber is wearing Rolex  Day Date Ref 128348RBR Turquoise 36mm, 

Shum Lai Heung is wearing Rolex Submariner 16610LN, Neo vintage Submariner 40mm

Joey Tyee is wearing Rolex Day Date 118238 black dial.

These are watches for men, now being used by ladies, so this is one of the reason why the watch demand is getting high.

HK Snob

Rolex Price increase 1 Jan 2022

 All Rolex watch price increases as an average of 3.4% in Hong Kong Boutique starting today.

Effect is all grey dealer price increases accordingly. 

HK Snob

Xmas Greeting to all watch lovers

Day Date 1803 Year 1978 for sale

Day Date Buckley dial NFS

Day Date Buckley Dial NFS

Explorer II 16570 with patina dial

1929 Solid gold Oyster 31mm with hidden crown California dial manual winding 

IWC 18KT manual winding 34mm 1950 For sale

Daytona 16528 inverted 6 white dial

Day Date 128348RBR Turquoise with dial, I suspect this will be the hot item in 2022

Date Just 126234 Palm Brand new with paper on sale 

Roger Dubuis Easy Dive 46mm with box paper on sale 

 

We had a wonderful X'mas gathering yesterday, we had some of the watches sharing and would have an update on the latest trend of watches, and the speculate price trend in 2022.

HK Snob 

What will be the watch market in 2022 Q1?

 

Discontinued model

Rolex Daytona steel 116500 was speculated to be discontinued by Jan 2021, price was raised to $310K highest ever by Dec 2020. Now the price of it is still moving around $280K. I think it will not be discontinued by Q1 2022.

Tiffany Blue

Since Patek Nautilus 5711 steel Tiffany blue hit a auction price of $40M. All watches come with Tiffany Blue because the target of all watch lovers, flippers and dealers, it reached price of $670K yesterday.

Today another seller is asking $1.8m! I can’t believe my eyes. Well, I think there might be people buying but there are still many cheaper offer from $200K to $600K… he has to wait for all the lower price watches been sold first. He may have patience to. But I cannot underestimated the operation fo Rolex

They might have controlled not to produce as many as Patek 5711 Tiffany blue 170 pieces.

That is killing all watch lovers and we think Rolex is the new currency now. Cash in bank gets no interests but Rolex can make 200% in one year.

What is next after Tiffany Blue?

I think there is a hidden diamond under the palm tree, yes the Date Just 126234 Palm green with jubilee bracelet as I have seen juts three pieces in the past 8 months in Hong Kong.

Well, I am looking for another one

General market situation

Generally we see more buying and trade in these November and December due to Xmas season and new year, and I think price is better for December, as no one want to keep a watch over the year, it will become 2 years old after December 2021.

If you want to buy watch from open market get it now, price is usually lower for Date Just or non-popular models. For those hot items, the price will be getting higher after January as factories are closing for Xmas and new year vacations.

HK Snob

Tiffany Blue magic 2021 on Patek, Rolex and UNDONE

On 11 Dec, 2021 Philips had an auction on a Patek Philippe Ref 5711 in Tiffany Blue with a hammer price of US$5.5M! It was a shock to most of the watch lovers and possibly not for some of the auction insiders. To me it’s a disappointment as it will be impossible for me to buy this piece of watch.

That is in fact another record high for a plain modern Nautilus stainless steel watch… there will be total 170 pieces of such watch will be made as the Company’s 170^th anniversary watch.

This was only trigger of the Tiffany Blue magic. Rolex had launched the OP 36 and OP 41 Tiffany blue in September 2020. 

That has two model ref 114300 41mm with SRP $46,400 and Ref 126000 36mm with SRP $43,400 only as the low price tag of all Rolex.

In the past 12 months, I have observed that OP41 was rising up to $140,000 whereas OP36 is floating around $120,000 for more than 3 months.

But after Dec 11 Philips Auction on the Patek Tiffany 5711 Tiffany blue, we have obviously seeing abnormal price up on these two Rolexes. Well, as of today, I could see the OP41 is selling from $250,000 to $679,000 that is over 14 times the Rolex SPR.

Even people speculate the price will further moving upwards further, but i cant tell as this is absurd price to me already. 

I think these are some of the reasons behind.

     Many people could not get the Patek 5711 Tiffany blue, in fact only 170 pieces of such watches will be made, so get hold of the Rolex OP41 or OP36 as second choice. Economy is still able to support the crazy price at this level.

I really cannot tell what is the next level of price up and the number of buyers actual had confirmed the order.  

Recently UNDONE has launched a Stella dial watches made of 316L steel DLC coated running with Seiko VK series Mecha Quartz movement, one is in Tiffany Blue and one in pink. They are produced under Limited number of 300 pieces each colour.

As a fan of UNDONE, I am the early bird to purchase through walk-in to the HQs of UNDONE at TST for two pieces both are under S/N 007/300, I simply like it as its nice in Tiffany blue colour, functional , sportive, and affordable for me. Price may be up soon but not as crazy as Rolex OP or Patek 5711 for sure.

So what is in your mind?

HK Snob

Rolex Tiffany Double name

These three watches were bought in 2020 Q1 with HK$630,000 from a private collector.

How much do you think it worth now? I think it is about HK$1,000,000!

HK Snob

Insane 2021, Crazy 2022

Watch market is hotter than ever which is what no one could expect two years ago. People keep saying bubbles burst... No, it never will because…as far as I know today.

The COVID-19 pandemic lasts more than two years with no indication when they could be come to an end, and all countries are forced to live with the virus except the great China. Pfizer vaccine drugs keeps selling their booster jab globally. What a boring period for most of the middle class, rich and poor.

Most countries’ tourism, airline, retail shopping industry died, people suffer from no travelling, no flying.

Air freight and food delivery business is blooming a few times over the last two years.

Real estate price is not as good as two years ago.

USA is printing money on 24 hour OT basis.

Many younger generation is putting a lot of speculation on, Bitcoins, NFT and Metaverse.

Someone bought some NFT and get $1m sold after two days, that is someone’s annual income…

US inflation is historically high and money is not money, Rolex is gold as what I am always saying…

What kind of investment you think you can do in these days as people need to spend their money before losing the value.

Nowadays someone on his fb page says Rolex is a new currency.

Well, watches are easy to sell, it is a kind of personal show-piece, an iconic display on your professional status, of course those who are wearing an RM going to a 5 star hotel with his Lambor handled by the valet parking. These people is bona fide SSVIP at Patek Boutique, who will be called to collect his 5712 five months after his last 5711R, whereby I had to wait for my son to collect a 5167 if I were lucky enough!

A RM, Patek, AP or even Rolex could easily reaching a price tag of 1.5m at grey dealers with their original MSRP of $300,000!

What can we do about it?

I am figuring how and I am going to give some tips on next article after discussion with a few watch collectors and investors.

Appendix some of the typical sample of watch price

Watch price Ref Daytona 116500LN was $210,000 in 2020, now $295,000.

Used AP 15300OR sold in 2020 with $160,000, now $300,000

Rolex 16613 Submariner Two tone Serti was $60,000, now $90,000

Rolex 126000 OP Tiffany Blue 36mm was $67,000 in 2020, now $120,000

Patek Aquanaut 5167 was $320,000 in 2020, now $495,000

HK Snob

Vacheron Constantin price is going up

 As we all know that Chrono24 price is good for a reference only as they do impose a service charge so sellers are likely mark up certain percentage on top if it.

I have been observing in these 9 months more people is talking about Vacheron Constantin mainly on its Overseas series.

As Rolex Daytona, Patel Nautilus and Roya Oak of AP price are very high, one who is looking next buy would be consider something else.

Vacheron Constantin Overseas has been selected as the next target.

We can see from these movement:

1. HK dealer groups have been more actively trade on Overseas

2. More and more website are talking about Overseas

3. The Blue Overseas is really built with full esthetic look.

4. Chrono24 price has been increase more than 40% since July till November for say the Generation one Overseas made between 1996 to 2003, especially in Blue dial.

Let's keep an eye on it.

HK Snob

Audemars Piguet 26000PT Perpetual Calendar in Platinum on sale

 AP 26000PT limited 90 pcs

Limited to 90 pieces

Watch only

running in great condition

HK$330,000

HK Snob

Chrono24 Price as reference

 For most of the watch seller, watch buyers are referring Chrono24 pricing as the price.

Well, in fact you can see that many of the watches posted on Chrono24 are not all fast moving items.

There are a few reasons, first of all Chrono24 watches sold are subject to Chrono24 charges of 6.5%.

So naturally many of the seller are marked up by 6.5% to 10% on Chrono24. That is why we should not take Chrono24 price as the current market price. I used to take the mean price then times 0.9 to be the market selling price.

Of course this is my way to check price of the world market price of the particular watches.

HK Snob

NOS with sticker 114300 39mm white dial on Sale

This is a 39mm 114300 White dial on sale

Price HK$88,000

HK Snob