Watch price trend March to November 2022

This is a graphic display of most of the common model of Rolex watches

HK Snob
 

Strategy for buying watch at 2H 2022

 I think I have some idea if I suppose a watch collector towards what watches to buy in 2H of 2022.

Stay away from new watches of Rolex, Patek, AP and even VC as they are still hard to get and still all over MSRP unless those models that is not in the hype.

Try to find some of the best dress watch you like from these four brands, as they are easier to get.

If you don't like dress watches, then I think you can forget it.

Try to buy at good price from the vintage market for those watches that is likely holding up prices in coming ten years, and those you would like to wear frequently.

Patek Annual calendar, Calatrava, AP's Offshore the early one as that may be the hit by 2023 the Offshore's 30th anniversary, Vacheron Constantin's Overseas Generation One and Two. Rolex Daytona 116520 P series creamy,  Daytona 16520 W, U or T series, Fat lady 16760 Coke, Rolex Pepsi 16710, Explorer II Creamy Polar 16570 or 16550. 

These are still available in the market with a reasonable price, but I am sure their price will go up later on.

HK Snob

Watch bubble bursts?

 Until the day I am writing, watch price still does not stop dropping.

Always if the market is bad, people is scary to buy and the whole dealer or seller or grey dealer may go for panic sale. so this avalanche effect would further spoil the market.

Johnson is facing large scale strike in UK led by the trainer worker across the country, they have been facing the work inflation over the last 40 years, on the other side of the continent, Biden is scratching his head what should he do on one side putting sanction on Shinjiang Uyghur products into USA and other side knee down begging to meet Xi. On the other side USA is sending his Japanese little brother to join with  Korea with the new president to give trouble to the Eastern water, don't forget Korea and Japan is never a friend for the last 100 years. so internally there are Okinawa citizens coming up protect again Fumio Kishida. and South Korean are not happy with Yoon Suk-yeoi's new move. 

Watch price will not be affected by world political situation, to certain extend is less as prominent as stock markets and consumer's products because it is classified as luxury product which is by right the last resort of monetary asylum.

Both Eastern and Western countries are in great trouble, and Russia does not seem to stop the war now as one way to change the world, and China and Russia seems getting closer...

anyway this is purely mu opinion on the world current situation, back to the watches.

I see trade between dealer on these watches

Patek Aquanaut 5167A is $595,000

AP 15500ST Royal Oak auto 41 mm white dial is $370,000

Daytona white 16500 is now $270,000

Comparing with 2021, it has been dropped over 20% on PP, AP and Rolex as an average, vintage even worse no one watch to buy 1680, 1665, 16520 at the market price unless very special watches.

What s next? 

Watch out for next two months.

HK Snob

Unit here is HKD

Courtesy picture from Italian Watch Spotter

When watch price will go up again?

Many people questions when watch price will go up again.

This is a big topic which is also a challenge o many of the financial guy for watch trades.

I think the basic need for watch to regain its price momentum is, no more war, no more crazy inflation at like US nowadays. 

Also people will have good political stability in all major Western and Eastern countries.

If US is still treating his up coming second strong country as an emerging target of conflict then this watch price will never go up again!

Uncle Sam should sit down talking to Chinese on how to create a better community of shared future of the mankind, instead of using sanction or military threat to stop other country's development and growth... stupid.

Anyway this is watch log not political forum. 

HK Snob

Will Rolex bubble burst?

There are numerous saying that Rolex Bubble will burst!

This is my understanding:-

1. Exponential rise in demand.

2. Increase interests in luxury watches in the general public.

3. Not just Hong Kongers, US, EU, but Chinese, Taiwanese, Singaporean, Vietnamese, Myanmar are coming to join this game.

4. A relatively small supply.

5. Money is nothing and bank interests is a joke comparing with the money invested on hot watches.

6. Record-breaking auction prices.

7. More collectors, celebrities, investors are treating watches as an investment.

8. Rolex and many other makers are shutting down factories and manufacturing facilities due to COVID-19.

9. Promotion from watch blogger, watch youtubers, watch sites.

10. Watch is a small, artistic, valuable items that can be used for show off as social status.

11. Watch itself can be a new currency for people to move their asset.

12. Watch trade is simple and easy, of course background check on buyer is needed.

13. Many people spend their time in watch trade during this COVID-19 as they can't travel, they have accumulated a lot of spending power.

14. Many middle class of Chinese are prioritizing watch to real estate as in investment.

Price of watches

The Rolex Hulk 116610LV is now $330,000, unbelievable high, Daytona 116500LN White is $400,000

Patek 5711R is $3m, 5712A-001 is $1.3M...

Will the bubble be bursted? 

I don't think so as watches like Rolex with all the inflated value on the 200,000 (not all Rolex watches is under the hype) hot watches made a year is just about US$1.5B, that is nothing as that is only one week's printed output of the Federal Reserve'  De La Rue money printing machines. 

HK Snob

 

 

Insane 2021, Crazy 2022

Watch market is hotter than ever which is what no one could expect two years ago. People keep saying bubbles burst... No, it never will because…as far as I know today.

The COVID-19 pandemic lasts more than two years with no indication when they could be come to an end, and all countries are forced to live with the virus except the great China. Pfizer vaccine drugs keeps selling their booster jab globally. What a boring period for most of the middle class, rich and poor.

Most countries’ tourism, airline, retail shopping industry died, people suffer from no travelling, no flying.

Air freight and food delivery business is blooming a few times over the last two years.

Real estate price is not as good as two years ago.

USA is printing money on 24 hour OT basis.

Many younger generation is putting a lot of speculation on, Bitcoins, NFT and Metaverse.

Someone bought some NFT and get $1m sold after two days, that is someone’s annual income…

US inflation is historically high and money is not money, Rolex is gold as what I am always saying…

What kind of investment you think you can do in these days as people need to spend their money before losing the value.

Nowadays someone on his fb page says Rolex is a new currency.

Well, watches are easy to sell, it is a kind of personal show-piece, an iconic display on your professional status, of course those who are wearing an RM going to a 5 star hotel with his Lambor handled by the valet parking. These people is bona fide SSVIP at Patek Boutique, who will be called to collect his 5712 five months after his last 5711R, whereby I had to wait for my son to collect a 5167 if I were lucky enough!

A RM, Patek, AP or even Rolex could easily reaching a price tag of 1.5m at grey dealers with their original MSRP of $300,000!

What can we do about it?

I am figuring how and I am going to give some tips on next article after discussion with a few watch collectors and investors.

Appendix some of the typical sample of watch price

Watch price Ref Daytona 116500LN was $210,000 in 2020, now $295,000.

Used AP 15300OR sold in 2020 with $160,000, now $300,000

Rolex 16613 Submariner Two tone Serti was $60,000, now $90,000

Rolex 126000 OP Tiffany Blue 36mm was $67,000 in 2020, now $120,000

Patek Aquanaut 5167 was $320,000 in 2020, now $495,000

HK Snob