Merry Xmas and Happy new year from HK Watch Fever

Life is so miserable for us in Hong Kong since black protests issue 2019, then the COVID-19 for three years, then 24 Feb started the Russia-Ukraine war. Every day we have to wear a boring mask... only till last week China started to rename COVID as corona-flu. Well, I hope after this Xmas we can see light in the black tunnel., free traveling between China and HK

We can travel to China without restriction, we can go Macao like we could go in 2018. 

That would be the greatest news for me...

I wish the Russia-Ukraine war will come to an end and the price of PP, VC, AP and Rolex will be re-adjusted again a bit higher...

let's see and I pray

Merry Christman and happy new year.

HK Snob 

Rolex goes into preowned Rolex watch business!

Rolex Certified Pre-Owned watches (CPO) will initially be available at Bucherer boutiques in six countries (Switzerland, Austria, Germany, France, Denmark and the UK) from the start of December 2022. Other Official Rolex Retailers who choose to be part of this programme will be able to do so from spring 2023. The Rolex Certified Pre-Owned Programme equally concerns modern pre-owned watches and not vintage models such as those with Tritium dial!

as there will be a concern in the availability of parts.

Fourth floor of Burcherer building in Berne Switzerland had been displaying preowned watch for sales, but price isn't that attractive at all. They are limited to modern new watches. Nothing is Vintage as there is conflicts of interests if they go for vintage... we need to observe for a period of time.

At Rolex Business perspectives 

1. Their AD has to source used Rolex at certain price, authenticating them, or plus service them, polishing it, giving them a Tag of authentication assurance. that is an administrative and operation cost involved. Then they have to mark it up. The price is 100% not MSRP, may be 4-8% lower the market price of the new Rolex watches in the open market. 

It is not attractive to buyer but if they love the watch and can't buy it brand new, they are come for this as this is certificated real stuff from Rolex with two years warranty, that is better than you buy from unknown shops in the open market. 

2. What is the market size? 

Preowned watch market size is with a current value in the region of CHF 20 billion. And the potential is huge, as it could be worth CHF 39 billion by 2030.

Rolex takes up 28.8% of all Swiss watches made in the whole. That available market size is about CHF 600M a year.  And if there are more than 100 ADs in EU and Asia are selling this. The market capacity is about 100,000 Watches, that is an impact to the pre-owned watch dealers. If the price is attractive, if not that could be a slow-moving market. well, the AD will keep watching and manipulating the service and price for their margin.

3. Vintage Rolex

I think those older models are not planned now, such as 16570, 1675, 1680, 16520, 1665 as they are having very unique dial and hands made up of Tritium material, if Rolex made them CPO watches. they may change with service dial and hands, and that is a disgrace to the watch's originality and would not be the consideration of collectors. This will be an interesting tropic and we will watch out.

4. My comment

Price is the King, if price in between the market price and MSRP, that could be a business model, if that price is skewed to the high side, I think no one would pay for the price for a pre-owned one unless they are 95% or newer.

5. 2023 will be an exciting year for Rolex

HK Snob

When is the best time buying new Rolex?

 It would be 2023 Jan as by that time we hope the Russian Ukraine war will come to an end, then

the price of Rolex should more or less stabilized, if that is bight for own use that should be OK.

I think by then the price of Rolex is then 10% lower than Nov 2022.

It should not be going down further. just my instinct and hunch on Rolex Price.

May be not 100% correct.

Let's see

Watch price trend March to November 2022

This is a graphic display of most of the common model of Rolex watches

HK Snob
 

Hong Kong Watch price trend March to November 2022

As we can see here price is keep dropping since March to November. 

The reasons are complicated as partly it the buyer's market now. Larger sound dealers bought expensive watches Q1 will not eager to sell at this moment coz of the huge loss, however many smaller dealer or individual seller are selling them for cash, that had created a huge drop of price average of 30%

Most 80% of buyers are so worry the price will not come to an end to drop, so they keep observative. 

These are watch price in HKD, for new watches at market price.

Note the heat of 2022 Royal Oak 16202 was $2m in March, now is about $740,000 which is about 2.7X higher than MRSP! but this is one of the iconic Royal Oak.

BNIB =brand new in box

NOS= new old stock

HK Snob

 

My Audemars Piguet 5402BA A series S/N XX is finally return to me hands

After a decision to take back this watch from AP house, I passed to one of the best watch expert in Hong Kong to do the oiling and complete service.

 It took him one week focusing on this watch.

Finally he passed me the watch in tip top condition, no polishing of course.

This watch had been leaving me for past 6 years and finally came back to me possession.

The time is adjusted to gain 8 second per day, that is good for Chinese like I

The first two pictures are the new condition of it. 

HK Snob

There are so many good watches that may be good for your collection

The passion for watch has to be built up with years of collection, understanding horology, meeting with some of the collectors and representatives from the individually watch company.

There is no need to follow what 80% of most people know about what their so-called best watch collection's definition.

If you follow this thought about how most people appreciate the watch becoming what is your favorite watches will not mean that you can't find what you love.

Watch is able to be categorized love of individualism.

There is always very beautiful, rare and iconic watch not necessary those 80% can recognize...

such as Reverso, pre-Vendom Panerai, Rolex Prince, Rogers Dubuis bold large watch of the early time such as MuchMore, Cartier Crash, Santos and Tank. Patek's Calatrava, Vacheron Constantin Moonphase, slim and smaller Overseas of 37mm...Royal Oak of the 70s', Piaget Lapis or Onyx dress watch, Rolex Day Date Coral, Submariner Onyx, Rolex Milgauss of the 60s. 

Keep the list on and get what you like and more importantly is still affordable!

HK Snob

Tiger eye, meteorite and Onyx

It's not the make, it's not the size, it's not the price, it is the fun in collection.

Tiger eye, meteorite and onyx dial, super rare.

HK Snob
 

My Audemars Piguet finally back Home... Thanks AP

 I got my AP 5402BA A series finally from Le Brassus on 3 Nov. Thank You AP House.

Thank you Bowie Cheung and Elssi Yu

HK Snob

Hublot charges on watch repair - 5 Stars service

 

This is another case that I went to Hublot at IFC last Wednesday 19 Oct for this repair.

She took me two minutes to fill in some of the apps. and they took my watch. I asked how much.

They told me is about HK$5,000 to $6,000!

Their staff's professionalism proven today when the official invoice came indicating that service charge is $4,800 and replacement of hour and minutes hands is $625, crystal change is $1,430.

Total charges is $6,855. 

Hands and crystal changes is subject to me... I will change them.

This is another 5 stars super good service. 

They are efficient, 10 minutes to check the watch, 3 days to send me official quotation and the price is sweet!!

Hublot is getting very popular and gaining more market share in Asia Hong Kong, Japan and Singapore...

Thank you Hublot and your friendly staff!

HK Snob

Roger Dubuis charges on watch repair - 5 Star service

 

This is my experience for the second time at Roger Dubuis enjoying their super service.

First of all, they are professional and very knowledgeable on their products. Professional salesperson Brian Yu could even recognize me by calling my name after my last visit 5 years ago! 

I salute you!

Secondly they told me that they need to have about 6 days to do pre-evaluation on the charge on my watch. I went there at 5 pm on 19 Oct and they called me today on the quotation. That is 3 days!

Third, they are about to replace 6 parts as shown on the quotation, complete service and case polishing of the watch and the total price is HK$82,30!

I am amazed with their first-class service, response and the cost, which is not in their policy as part of the earning!

of course they watch is a white gold super heavy watch and was not cheap at all when we bought it. But after these years, there is wear and tear is unavoidable as this is sport watch.

Repair charge is very reasonable and very comfortable for us.

Thank you Roger Dubuis for such a great service.

We will continue support this Roger Dubuis in future.

HK Snob

IWC Automatic watch with Pellaton winding system 1344319

1955 IWC Automatic Pellaton Automatic watch in a 35mm stainless steel case with a clear silver dial. This particular watch has the Pellaton winding system. This system paved the way for IWC.

Pellaton hit upon a surprising solution: instead of putting a ball bearing or cog at the centre of the rotor, he used a heart-shaped, eccentrically bearing-mounted disc. The latter converts the rotor’s revolutions into the to-and-fro movements of a rocking bar. The bar’s rocking movements are then transmitted to the winding wheel by two pawls: while one of them pulls the wheel (i.e. winds it), the other glides smoothly over the top of it until the roles are reversed. The mechanism patented in 1950 is unusually efficient. “The rotor’s smallest movement in either direction is used to wind the mainspring,” explains Gäumann.

Even if the principle is simple enough, an automatic winding system poses many different challenges for the design engineers. On the one hand, the mechanism must function perfectly for a wide range of wearers with different habits and lifestyles. On the other, the automatic sub-assembly is exposed to more wear and tear than most other parts in the movement. In the new 52850 calibre, for instance, the rotor has to complete 2600 revolutions to fully wind the two barrels in the Portugieser Annual Calendar. Although the rotor weighs just less than five grams, the forces exerted on the components during rapid movements may be as much as 5000 times that of gravity. Protecting the oscillating system against wear and tear, therefore, merits special attention.

Movement: Automatic C852

This particular beauty is having an even patina dial which reflects a vintage taste of an IWC Iconic watch in early stage of automatic watches

It comes with an original certificate (warranty)

A real collectible item if you are a fan of IWC watches

HK Snob

 

Comparison on watch service charges in Hong Kong

Richard Mille RM11-Ti ($1.7m) complete service $28,500, 3 months 2019. Pacific Place boutique

Roger Dubuis MuchMore Perpetual Calendar yellow gold ($300,000) Complete service $19,000 (original price was $30,000, but I negotiated with the HK general manager and he gave me a special discount. 3 months 2018.Pacific Place Boutique

Patek Philippe Nautilus White gold 3800/1a ($1.5M) complete service $10,250, 4 months 2020, Peninsular Patek service centre

Vacheron Constantin Tourbillon solid yellow gold watch ($350,000) complete service $32,000 4 months 2020, 1881 Boutique

IWC Pilot Perpetual Calendar 34mm white gold ($320,000) service on time adjustment under warranty, Free of charge, 2019, IFC boutique

Rolex Daytona 16528 yellow gold ($340,000) complete service including spring bar1 pair and complete service $9,970, 3 months, Jardines house 14/F

JLC Reverso rose gold ($200,000) complete service $9000, 3 months 2020. Prince Building Boutique Central.

Hublot King Power ($230,000) complete service, estimated $5,000 under quotation stage, this week. IFC boutique.

Roger Dubuis Diver White gold ($200,000) complete service estimated $15,000 under quotation confirmation, last week. IFC boutique.

Comment on service

I think all carry good quality service, especially Patek Philippe, they are so professional, the staff is so friendly

Rolex is the lowest in price, people commented Rolex is not so good but I think they are having a standard charging scheme and super reasonable

These are all my beloved watches and they all carry good service. I almost forget to give Seiko service  another thumbs up! As even as small amount as HKD$400 of watch bracelet I ordered, they called me and told me where to pay deposit and will advise me when the bracelet will be available. very detail and helpful service.

All currency is HK dollar.

Remarks 

(Bracketed highlighted one is the current estimated value of the watch)

Audemars Piguet watch service is likely a rip off!

AP charges me for complete service a Royal Oak 5402BA with HK$198,000!  (US$25,710.00)

That is more than the SRP of a brand new automatic Royal Oak.

I went there two times already first time meeting lady and ask me to sign some document but I did not as it was about 6pm. I made another appointment again to meet them again. That was back in June. So I left the watch however they quote me verbally the complete service of this watch is about $100,000. Official quote has to be sent from AP le Brassus.

I also presented my Royal Oak Offshore 25770ST to them to overhaul, it is a chronograph and the charge was $14,000; and it was retuned me in two months... I was satiafied with that service.

I have asked them last two weeks why it take so long for the official quote for my 5402, they told me summer vacation of Switzerland… last Thursday they call me that the complete service charge is $198,000. That is to me not a reasonable price. My request is the break down for the charges, of course there will be a meeting on 14 Oct at AP House on this.

My experience in service watches typically watch I the past 3 year are here:-

Patek Philippe Nautilus 3800/1A white gold $10,250, 3.5 months – two year warranty, Superb service!

Rolex Daytona 16528 overhaul HK$9,000 (two months) – Good service.

IWC Pilot White gold perpetual calendar 34mm as I need to readjust the time from gain of 12 sec. a day then they retuned me with 2 sec. gain a day in two week! It was free as the watch is under warranty. This is an excellent service.

Richard Mille RM-11 Ti not running well, it time to overhaul after 2011. The charge was $28,500  2 months to return me…- Superb service, and I got one year extra warranty on that watch and a beautiful RM watch box.

Well, back to them 5402 well, this is an old watch believed it is in the year 1972. But it is a simple two hand automatic watch with JLC 2121 movement…

I think any one in HK can do the same job… but I just afford there in in case some parts is needed would be nice to be done in Audmemars Piguet.

This told me I was wrong… as according to AP House, there are only two watch smiths such are qualified to do this watch overhaul in Swiss… if that is true I just wonder wo can repair the 1985 ultra thin AP Perpetual calendar, which I had before.. probably the charge will be aso very high!

What I guess they don’t want to service older watch… or they would like to charge at certain percentage of the current value of your watch… this looks more appropriate as my 5402 which may worth at $2M. So say 10% o it would be about $198,000, Oh I just discovered the secret AP formula… as I had talked to the CEO of AP at Linked In page…he told me to send my detail info to social.media@audemarspiguet.com. That had been more than 10 days with no reply at all, even after my resent messages! Completely sucks! 

Conclusion

1.       They have only two qualified smith to handle vintage automatic Royal Oak watch in their factory

2.       How to service more complicated watch such as 1985 Perpetual calendar or even Tourbillion? Or Subcontract this service to other watch makers in Switzerland? That is why thy have to charge much higher?

3.       The charge scheme is based on 10% of the current value of the watch for complete service ?

4.       Comparing with excellent repair services at Patek, Rolex, IWC , Richard Mille Audemars Piguet is really need to learn from them in service support.

5.       The one who bought this 5402BA in 1972 saved Audemars Piguet from bankruptcy is now being punished for sending them the watch to repair… is that a Karma? IWho saved the Audemars Piguet in 1972-1974?

6.       Should I consider buying more Audemar Piguet watches in near future? No, I have the reply as I think there are better choice for me… Patek, Vacheron Constantin , Richard Mille, IWC, Panerai Rolex, Tudor or Grand Seiko! 

Moral of the story, AP is not as what I used to think it is as before.

I always believe a good after sales service is key to win a market segment.

HK Snob

Top Picture is now being a hostage for repair at le brassus 

Second picture top one is the Nautilus 3800/1a white gold after complete service at Patek Philippe Switzerland with just HK$10,250 still under two years warranty. I am super happy with Patek Service!

Common buying practice of watch in Hong Kong.

I am not trying to blame buyer, there are 80% good buyers, though there is some minority which are not too good. I know the complexity of the buying people‘s mind set sometimes they are confused, they are struggling why have to buy the watch in the open market via these trading platform such as eBay or Carousell, facebook, or eBay.

Especially in Hong Kong, those younger at age group between 24-38 years old many of them are quite lost in mind, as gathering from friends and watch sellers I know these are the quite common...

1.   Some of them are not serious buyer, some of them click your product as he wants to try luck to buy lucky go cheaper goods. They are not serious.

2.   Many of them would like to understand more on the product and he makes use of it to ask you questions only.

3.   Many of them want to buy but in over cautious way that he ask too many questions.

Don’t fall into the psychological trap that asking more meaning they are more interested in buy, they just don’t know. 80% of them don’t buy.

4.   Sometimes, we need to test them by providing a slower response and see if they stop interested in your products, and ask them experience on your products, as they might be empty on the knowledge on your product, they you can provide them more technical information of our products, and If they are serious then they will come back to you.

5.  These are common no buy signals:-

Let me think about it

Let me consider it

Can you further reduce the price?

6.   These are professional way to refuse your products

Oh I forget to ask, do you have the original invoice at Rolex (it has been stated no invoice)

I just noticed that there is a stain on the dial, Let me rethink about, (Actually there is no rusts at all)

Oh, my girl friend had just informed me she is pregnant and I need to save money for that!

7.   Scammer (most likely)

a.    Do you accept cheque?

b.    Can you meet me at 0300 morning ta Sham Shui Po Ap Liu street!? I pay cash for your two Daytonas

c.    She says she is busy at meeting suddenly and she sends his younger brother to trade with you. Please call his number to arrange. (beware)

8.   Why so cheap?

There is only one in 100 that asks why your products is so cheap, he might not buy also and

This is a most hilarious reply from one of my partners to this weird buyer.

“Because of COVOID-19, all my family member died and I need money to arrange their funerals! (This is a real one!)

 Have a nice day

 HK Snob

King of Rolex

 

Whatever Rolex models are you interested in, Daytona is of no question the top if the list, the auction record is held by Daytona, no matter Paul Newman, Platinum Daytona, Rainbow, we are likely talking about the Daytona family. 
This is 16528 with Zenith movement modified lower beat to suit the Rolex requirement. a durable work horse, Don't miss it if you see one.

Top of the line is black floating line in with inverted 6 in black, porcelain white, black with diamond,

Lapis Azuli dial. Onyx dial ( I have not seen one yet) Creamy dial P series 116520... W series 16520 Tropical dial.

Reference price (actual price depends on if there is paper and condition of it)

116520 white $200K

116520 Black $180K

116520 P Creamy dial $1m

16520 Black A $220K White $240K

16529 Black Black Patrizi $300K

16528 Black no diamond $280K

16528 Black with diamond dial $320K

Current production model 116500 White $270,000 Black $235000 

HK Snob

Remarks, attached with a Goro's bracelet 

Grand Seiko Ginza Tiffany Blue SBGH297 LE 260 pcs

 Grand Seiko SBGH297 Tiffany blue Ginza Limited edition we just received it yesterday from Japan.

We went to Seiko boutique which was moved from iSquare to CKE beside Chung King mansion,  the sales ladies were surprise to see such a watch too, It is quite unique and beautiful. As we need to adjust the bracelet length to the right size to wear.

I need to comment is that the service there are awesome as they are all friendly and very helpful! 

SRP is about HK$48000, but likely its is selling over the list price in HK, Japan. 

HK Snob

Dress watch

 I have seen a lot of people go with the hype for steel watch, as they think that can be used everyday.

Yes they could be worn everyday, but somehow these kinds of steel watches are tool's watch.

Such as those Rolex Submariner, GMT Master, Explorer, Daytona and or Milgauss, they are rugged, bigger but somehow it lacks of a kind of elegancy and style.

Have you noticed that the salespersons in Broadway, Fortress, or Watsons, they are wearing these Rolex tool watch, like part of their uniform. When foreign visitors come to Hong Kong, they told me why many Hong Kongers are so rich, I told them they need to be recognized in public, and the easy way is to wear a Rolex, and most of all. They are good reliable watches.

You seldom see a salesperson nowadays wear a Cellini, Calatrava, Tank or a Reverso... 

In fact they are also durable, strong and could be used a daily watch with exception that may be not too good if you need to work outdoor where you may sweat a lot that may not be comfortable on your wrist especially in Hong Kong' s hot and humid Summer. Other season, they are perfect watches.

I like those dress watch size from 30 -36 mm diameter, I think this is wrong with a dress watch of 39mm, 41mm that is not beautiful at all even you wrist is large as 18cm -19cm. They just don't look right with this size and proportion.

Dress watch should be

1. clean dial

2, Manual or Auto 

3. size 30-37mm

4. Thin 2-5mm 

5. Stone dial would be an added value but rare now

6. Precious metals case.

I think they are adorable and impeccable in taste.

HK Snob

Strategy for buying watch at 2H 2022

 I think I have some idea if I suppose a watch collector towards what watches to buy in 2H of 2022.

Stay away from new watches of Rolex, Patek, AP and even VC as they are still hard to get and still all over MSRP unless those models that is not in the hype.

Try to find some of the best dress watch you like from these four brands, as they are easier to get.

If you don't like dress watches, then I think you can forget it.

Try to buy at good price from the vintage market for those watches that is likely holding up prices in coming ten years, and those you would like to wear frequently.

Patek Annual calendar, Calatrava, AP's Offshore the early one as that may be the hit by 2023 the Offshore's 30th anniversary, Vacheron Constantin's Overseas Generation One and Two. Rolex Daytona 116520 P series creamy,  Daytona 16520 W, U or T series, Fat lady 16760 Coke, Rolex Pepsi 16710, Explorer II Creamy Polar 16570 or 16550. 

These are still available in the market with a reasonable price, but I am sure their price will go up later on.

HK Snob

It is time to buy some other watches that is more affordable with discounts

When price of Rolex is down 40% now comparing with 1 year ago.

What is Rolex AD is doing to change the situation? Nothing can be done.  Instead they may increase price again in 2023.

What is Patek, AP, VC’s Price, they can’t escape the price drop, may be less serious as Rolex.

Still price drop is more than 25-30%.

Being a watch lover, what shall I do?

Patek, AP, VC does not recognize me as a SVIP as I really don’t have good sales records in each of their AD.

Rolex? Yes, I did buy quite a number of pieces, may be 15 to 20 pieces just in one AD. This AD is also changing their strategy by their manager directly to his “preferred client” so basically I can’t get any watches at SRP from them

Luckily I am not too crushed on their new watches, instead I like more of their great vintages…so I think I am not losing any opportunity as I am not their “preferred client” except the Vachreon Constantin 222, as I really like this 2022’ s 222.

If I were the watch lover, I will focus on some of the classic vintage such as Patek “Perpetual calendar”,

AP Royal Oak early pieces such as 15300, 15202, 5402, Havana Chronometer, Patina dial Royal oak of 37mm. As for Vacheron Constantin, I love Overseas 42042 37mm as it is still being underestimated, or Overseas Gen 2, I have one but never use it as I don’t like his size, it is too large…as for Overseas Gen 3, I like 2300V as it is 37mm. just right… Of course it depends on your wrist size, mine is perfect for a 37-39mm watch…

How about Rolex, well, seriously, Rolex is just a good quality tool watch, nothing could surprise me in their Innovation, design and history… If not able to get it, just pass it… does not matter anymore…

As for Vintage, some of Rolex 1675, 1680, 16520, 16550, 1665… those with Sapphire glass is good as for their water proof function is superior to be use every day.

Besides, there are still a lot of beautiful watches from Cartier, Breguet, Panerai, IWC, Jaeger LeCoutle, why we have to limit ourselves to Rolex only. and we can enjoy some discount on certain models.

Some Cartier less 15-30%, some IWC less 15-30%,  some new Tudor less 20-40%, Panerai less 20-40%! Why not?

 Buying a watch is to wear it, appreciate it and not keep them in vault waiting for their value to go up, that may take a long process. It does not worth for the watch to be used in this manner.

My opinion only.

HK Snob

Rolex Bubble

Still many people talk about there is no seen evidence that Rolex watch price will move up from it lowest dip now. 

I don't know if that is so bad as of this time. well, there is a Rolex price threat by 2008 Leman Brothers and 2019 COVID -19.

This time the dip is going to the untouchable bottom, but I think everything must have one end, after that it will move it. Whether in September or December 2022 only.

HK Snob

Paul Thorpe comments on his you tube

 Today You tuber Paul Thorpe has mentioned  a few things:-

1. Rolex will increase price by 8% in 2023.

2. Rolex will not use any leather on his watches.

3. UK and USA is his biggest export countries.

4. Rolex is running at full production now.

Paul is one of my favorite you tubes channels on watches. well, he had mentioned two weeks ago that

by September the Rolex price will start to move up instead of keep falling.

by my understanding, only if Russia-Ukraine war comes to an end or the Rolex price is still facing with 

obstacle to rise again.

Let's see 10 days later what President Xi and Biden would talk about ? That may give us some hints on 

what Rolex price would be.

HK Snob

Today Hong Kong Market price of Rolex, Patek Philippe, Audemars Piguet, Richard Mille and Vacheron Constantin Overseas

 Daytona Ceramic Panda 116500LN white $260,000 (119)

Daytona Ceramic Panda 116500LN Black $240,000

Daytona White 116508Ng $560,000

Daytona 116519g Black white gold $325,000

Daytona 116509NG white $459,000

Date Just Wimbledon 126331 Oyster $112,000

Date Just 126334 Black oyster $85,500

Date Just 126331 Sundust oyster $99500

Submariner 126613LB Blue $125,000

Submariner 126613LN $135,200

Submariner Starbuck 126610LV $150,000

Pepsi GMT Master 126710BLRO $160,000

DeepSea 126660 Black $103,000

OP 124300 Tiffany $240,240

OP 124300 Red $146,000

OP 124300 Silver $60,600

Audemars Piguet

15500ST Black $395,000 (533)

15500ST Grey $385,000

15500ST White $385,000

Patek 

5167A $580,000 (463)

5168G $800,000 (189)

Vacheron Constantin 

Overseas 4500V/110A-B128 Blue stainless $300,000 (466)

Overseas Mid size blue 2300V $240000 (13)

The unit shown here is HKD. We are talking about all brand new watches, used watch is not being covered here.

The Bracket shows the search result of that watch at Chrono24 which means ow rare it it...

Good reference for what you want to buy for future as rarer pieces is more preferred by me.

These are the price as of Today  24 July as an average trading price in the market, I am not talking about MRSP price which is not so much of a meaning unless you re SVIP who can het at directly from Boutique.

Note that these price Have been dropped about 25-40% over the last 6 months and the trend is still dropping

Speed of dropping fastest is Rolex, then Patek Phillippe, AP and least is VC  ,meaning that these Rolex and Patek were flipped more than Audemars Piguet and Vacheron Constantin.

How about RM, since RM is running in a comparatively small volume, and they re dominated by smaller groups of end user, they price is not really dropping too much.

Many peoples speculate that the price will see an end of dropping by September but some of the dealers are saying that it will happen end by December, so it is a bit [pessimistic, I am speculating that Rolex watch price will be stabilized by September.... but of course purely my personal thoughts, as I don't have a crystal ball to tell.

HK Snob

The difference of Vacheron Constantin Overseas Generation 1 Ref 42042 and 42040

 On and off we can see there is Overseas ref 42042 and 42040 which state also same 37mm diameter.

So what is the difference between this models? We can refer to the attached table. More ever 

according to the official reply to one of their watch fan, telling that Ref 42042 has a stronger and thickness movement which is more suitable as the movement on a sport watch.

As for dial, the early one is sigma, then T Swiss T, and the replacement dial Swiss made.

So the price of Ref 42042 and 42040 has a big price difference of about 30%.

How to tell your watch is Ref 42042? You can check the bracelet is engraved with "423J" that should be 42042.

How about Ref 42050, that is having a 35mm diameter Overseas. So the price is even lower.

HK Snob

When Rolex price will start to get back to normal?

 Today I visited some of the watch shops at CKE, TST of Hong Kong.

We talked about when the next Rolex price up will be?

I think September as by then the Russia Ukraine war should come to an end if not should 

be come to a resolution to stop.

Biden should find a way o sit down talking to President  Xi on how to get things moving on such that his seat at White House would be kept warm in November.

If that Russian war is settled , European, USA inflation will be having a way to be reduced. 

By then China had been fully recovered on it production capacity to regain momentum for chasing best GDP for the year.

And if so, the people will start to spend money on more or less more on luxury goods .

I pray for that... Let's see, only two months to go.

HK Snob

When Rolex price up?

As more and more people is asking me when Rolex Price is up again.

Is it the lowest price now?

What I see that when HSI is at this 22000 point, US and UK inflation is highest over the last 40 years. 

No such good news of Putin will hand shake with Ukraine President?

I think the Rolex price is still going down further in July at least

I can't tell as I don't have crystal ball on when Rolex price is up again.

When you can afford and when it is not lowest, there is a good deal found, it is time to buy. IMHO

HK Snob

Watch bubble bursts?

 Until the day I am writing, watch price still does not stop dropping.

Always if the market is bad, people is scary to buy and the whole dealer or seller or grey dealer may go for panic sale. so this avalanche effect would further spoil the market.

Johnson is facing large scale strike in UK led by the trainer worker across the country, they have been facing the work inflation over the last 40 years, on the other side of the continent, Biden is scratching his head what should he do on one side putting sanction on Shinjiang Uyghur products into USA and other side knee down begging to meet Xi. On the other side USA is sending his Japanese little brother to join with  Korea with the new president to give trouble to the Eastern water, don't forget Korea and Japan is never a friend for the last 100 years. so internally there are Okinawa citizens coming up protect again Fumio Kishida. and South Korean are not happy with Yoon Suk-yeoi's new move. 

Watch price will not be affected by world political situation, to certain extend is less as prominent as stock markets and consumer's products because it is classified as luxury product which is by right the last resort of monetary asylum.

Both Eastern and Western countries are in great trouble, and Russia does not seem to stop the war now as one way to change the world, and China and Russia seems getting closer...

anyway this is purely mu opinion on the world current situation, back to the watches.

I see trade between dealer on these watches

Patek Aquanaut 5167A is $595,000

AP 15500ST Royal Oak auto 41 mm white dial is $370,000

Daytona white 16500 is now $270,000

Comparing with 2021, it has been dropped over 20% on PP, AP and Rolex as an average, vintage even worse no one watch to buy 1680, 1665, 16520 at the market price unless very special watches.

What s next? 

Watch out for next two months.

HK Snob

Unit here is HKD

Courtesy picture from Italian Watch Spotter

AP House visit with my Royal Oak Ref 5402BA

This is my second time re-visited AP house, I had another experience. As for this time I feel I was being properly treated. I was meeting with a supervisor who actually I knew her when she was with other watch brands 5 years ago. 

She could say this is a 5402 A series! Surprisingly this is a difference between a supervisor and other staff. knowing me that I like vintage watch, she gave me two heavy books for my reference. Then she mentioned that this watch may be handled by la brassus factory for complete service. I saw a decent  service there, immediate i put down my another 1997 Offshores for completed service.

She told ne the service charges of the 5402 is about HK$100,000. Well, regarding the sentimental value and economical value of this watch, I said OK. 

The issue is 6 months, I told her I have no concern on the delivery time just not to further polish that watch and don't change the dial as this is the soul of this watch...

Well, to be a successfully company, customer handling is key... I think this time AP is doing the right thing.

HK Snob

When watch price will go up again?

Many people questions when watch price will go up again.

This is a big topic which is also a challenge o many of the financial guy for watch trades.

I think the basic need for watch to regain its price momentum is, no more war, no more crazy inflation at like US nowadays. 

Also people will have good political stability in all major Western and Eastern countries.

If US is still treating his up coming second strong country as an emerging target of conflict then this watch price will never go up again!

Uncle Sam should sit down talking to Chinese on how to create a better community of shared future of the mankind, instead of using sanction or military threat to stop other country's development and growth... stupid.

Anyway this is watch log not political forum. 

HK Snob

HK Watch Fever's Carousell site

 If you wan to see what product I am let go , you can follow my Carousell "@Paul_ip2020"

Thank you for your support.

HK Snob

Rolex Price keeps dropping

Rolex Daytona white 116500LN was selling at $460,000 beginning of the year, today they are worth about $280,000. 

Hulk Ref 116610LV NOS was $280,000 and now it is about $200,000.

Hulk used one with Ref 116610LV is now $140,000 which is 30% lower than January 2022.

What is Patek and AP price, well, they are also affected too.

Many people ask me when the price will be up again?

I think it depends when the Russia-Ukraine war will come to an end.

And COVID is being not an issues in Asia, the economy will be pushed up and people will be having their money released for spending.

take for an example, Hong Kong, it is the place we are looking for cancelling the 7 days quarantine after coming back Hong Kong. then the whole Asian economy will be boosted like a Viagra to an horny old man.

I am expecting by end July the Russia Ukraine war shall come to a peace, I pray.

HK Snob

A visit to AP house with my Royal Oak 5402ba Jumbo

 After I made an appointment to AP house, I went with this Royal Oak 5402ba to see a young lady there at 5pm on 29 May 2022.  I was intended to overhaul the movement and change a new gasket only. She told me the watch is old and she had to find out their record, she had never seen this watch in he life. Well, I told her this is 5402, the first Royal Oak that changed the destiny of the Audemars Piguet against the Quartz crisis. She went to other area likely talking to some other staff three times, after 30 minutes and told me there there may have no spare parts for this old watch, And they need 6 months to do the job as AP is busy. Well, I told her what parts? She said spare part! I told her Audemars Piguet is supposed the No. 3 high end watch house in Switzerland after Patek Philippe and Vacheron Constantin... How come no spare?
Patek Philippe's CEO Thierry Stern had once mentioned that whatever Patek Philippe watch even back to 19 Century they still can provide spare part for it. I don't  blame her as she may be too new in her job, she is young about 28 wearing an AP white gold Perpetual Calendar watch worth HK$600,000 as she told me during the chatting. She asked me if I want to change a new dial, (how come she know that AP does still have the dial?) I said No, I need to keep the original dial. She asked if I need to polish the case and bracelet, I told her no, I wanted to keep the original condition of the watch. Preferably no polishing. 

She said, that watch can not be polished anymore as it is too thin already! (I told myself really too thin to polish? How much do you need to polish? 0.005mm? 0.02mm? 0.2mm?

OK after I saw the document , the description was NXX  (XX is my watch S/N, it should read No XX on the back of my watch. on the Watch Description; it was written "39mm gold watch with bracelet. I told her should be "Royal Oak 5402 39mm with bracelet... : it too late as it was 5;55, 5 minutes before they closed. So I told her well, I would like to take it back and make another appointment for visit again.

That was a wonder experience, i feel a bit hesitate to send the watch to AP House to overhaul. But After all who can do it for me? Private watch smith I guess. But I do like to send it to AP Switzerland for best attention on it.

Aftermath

I remembered I was invited to join a new watch fair at Audemars Piguet IFC back in 2018, And I saw a 5402 Royal Oak in yellow gold was housed inside a window box for display. I talked to one of the VPs from Switzerland who told be me still have three NOS (new old stock) JLC 2121 movement under his own possession. This is the movement being used inside the 5402. The 2121 movement is very reliable and one of the best movements in the 70s. Later in 1976, Patek Philippe also took the same movement to be housed in their legendary watch "The Nautilus 3700". I don't know what spare they don't have again,. this puzzled me until now...

Anyway I shall have another appointment in AP House again soon... let's see if that could be another wonder experience for me.

HK Snob

The new Philippine President Ferdinand "Bongbong" Marcos Jr.,

To the President of the Philippines, Ferdinand "Bongbong" Marcos Jr.,                           

First of all, Congratulations of your success by the majority of the wills of the People of the Philippines; you won 31.6 million votes or 58.8% of the total, making you the first president in decades to secure a mandate from a majority of the electorate.

You will be able to lead the country for another prosperity of 5 years and more years to come under your great leadership. 

With my warmest regards and wish you all the best.

Paul Ip

What does this AP Royal Oak worth?

 An original water colour sketch of a Royal Oak by Gerald Genta in 1972 was just sold with HK$4m in a recent auction, I don't know one of the first 100 pieces of the actual Audemars Piguet Royal Oak in solid 18KT gold would worth?

HK Snob

Watch consignment for sale

Only serious consignments are welcome.

Require HKD$1,000 deposit, returned after a one-month selling period.

Can be extended for free or when the watch is sold.

Exclusive selling rights.

HK Snob

Common response of "no-buy" from client

With these communications, more or less 80% your customer will not buy.

1. Can I have more picture?

2. Can i see the box also, I said, allow me 1-2 days to get it and send you.

He said, no hurry!

3. Quoted price is HK$100,000., he can can be lowered a bit?

If your new quote is HK$99,000 or HK$80,000, he will not buy 

4. Where is the original warranty paper?

5. Thanks!

6. OK good, give me two days to think about it!

7. What is the best price for me??

HK Snob

這一些對答有80% 他吾會買的

 這一些對答有80% 他吾會買的。

1.有冇多一些相片看看，看完説謝謝。

2.可否比個盒我看看。我説過二天拿出來比你看，他說.好的不急的！   

3.原價十萬，他問可以平多一些嗎？

你如果覆價佢九萬九或者八萬。佢都吾買的！

4.為什麼無原來出世紙的？

5.謝謝！

6.好的.比我考慮二天！

7. 最平可以幾多錢?

HK Snob

Any surprise on Watches & Wonders 2022?

What is the mostly discussed topics on W & W 2022?

Vacheron Constantin 222 retro. It is an awesome piece as a replica as of the one introduced in 1977 as a 222th anniversary of the Vacheron Constantin. It has no second hand, 37mmin diameter, the size that makes many people feel questionable small, why ? Yes 37mm, as Vacheron Constantin is taking a lead for going smaller watches. in 1977 , there were 100 pieces of solid gold 222 made, plus another 400 stainless steel. Those are all collectible item now. 

Audemars Piguet is also introducing a “34mm Royal Oak” watch this year. It should be a right size ofor ladies.

Rolex declared to discontinue the three OP41 Tiffany Blue, Coral Red and Yellow from the list.

Reason unknown, but I don’t think these OP41 Tiffany blue will be an evergreen item on Chrono24, let’s watch for a year.

Rolex introduced a Left hand version of GMT Master II, even the date window goes Left! It’s not right!

Patek Philippe has no surprise at all.

The rest of other brands are just so so…

This 2022 watch year is not as excited as 2021, probably COVID-19 had an impact even on launching new design of watches…

HK Snob

Luxury watch is the latest currency

 Aftermath of US EU countries with all-round sanctions including German agricultural seeds for Russia.

Chinese are learn to keep physical goods and not paper money, thought there is not official announcement on this but we can feel that people of China are awakened.  There will be a huge round of inflation as the US, Japan, UK, Sweden, etc, are printing more and more money.  So the Chinese are planning not to accept USD but only their RMB for payments.

 When the U.S. COVID-19 epidemic broke out and there was no effective preventive measures and control for a long time…  the country’s populations were isolated, production stagnated, and stocks of supplies quickly dwindled, and the Federal Reserve desperately cut interest rates to stimulate the economy including printing bank note for the so-called quantitate ease. 

The Euro, the US dollar, the British pound, and the Swiss franc are all such currencies and will gradually become useless paper.  When the country’s inventory is extremely running low and scarce.         Everyone understands that whoever exchanges real physical things for these spirit money is insane.

Just within this quarter, the United States has issued an additional 1.9 trillion dollars, and the Japan also printed a large amount of money. Banknote becomes as cheap as toilet paper or spirit money.

Many people including Eastern Europe as majority understands that in any country where the epidemic is not under control, they will no longer exchange physical objects for foreign currency.

Many people are using watches as for their latest tool for money laundry. As anywhere anytime you can cash and there is no customs restriction when you travel anywhere in the world.

We have taken this action, and it is estimated that Vietnam, India, Malaysia, Indonesia other than China and other producing countries will also adopt similar "CLOSE DOOR" measures.

In view of this, I think many of the people will use their extra money buying/selling luxury watches as an investment fortress for the reasons:

1.       Easy to cash

2.       As an alternate security of their properties other than Bitcoins, NFT

3.       Easy to move around across countries

4.       No Lawyers service charges, no commission fee

5.       The higher price of the watch the higher the demand

6.       The Big Three, Plus RM and Rolex

 

Why not? As these are the new currency now.

 

HK Snob