Merry Xmas and Happy new year from HK Watch Fever

Life is so miserable for us in Hong Kong since black protests issue 2019, then the COVID-19 for three years, then 24 Feb started the Russia-Ukraine war. Every day we have to wear a boring mask... only till last week China started to rename COVID as corona-flu. Well, I hope after this Xmas we can see light in the black tunnel., free traveling between China and HK

We can travel to China without restriction, we can go Macao like we could go in 2018. 

That would be the greatest news for me...

I wish the Russia-Ukraine war will come to an end and the price of PP, VC, AP and Rolex will be re-adjusted again a bit higher...

let's see and I pray

Merry Christman and happy new year.

HK Snob 

Rolex goes into preowned Rolex watch business!

Rolex Certified Pre-Owned watches (CPO) will initially be available at Bucherer boutiques in six countries (Switzerland, Austria, Germany, France, Denmark and the UK) from the start of December 2022. Other Official Rolex Retailers who choose to be part of this programme will be able to do so from spring 2023. The Rolex Certified Pre-Owned Programme equally concerns modern pre-owned watches and not vintage models such as those with Tritium dial!

as there will be a concern in the availability of parts.

Fourth floor of Burcherer building in Berne Switzerland had been displaying preowned watch for sales, but price isn't that attractive at all. They are limited to modern new watches. Nothing is Vintage as there is conflicts of interests if they go for vintage... we need to observe for a period of time.

At Rolex Business perspectives 

1. Their AD has to source used Rolex at certain price, authenticating them, or plus service them, polishing it, giving them a Tag of authentication assurance. that is an administrative and operation cost involved. Then they have to mark it up. The price is 100% not MSRP, may be 4-8% lower the market price of the new Rolex watches in the open market. 

It is not attractive to buyer but if they love the watch and can't buy it brand new, they are come for this as this is certificated real stuff from Rolex with two years warranty, that is better than you buy from unknown shops in the open market. 

2. What is the market size? 

Preowned watch market size is with a current value in the region of CHF 20 billion. And the potential is huge, as it could be worth CHF 39 billion by 2030.

Rolex takes up 28.8% of all Swiss watches made in the whole. That available market size is about CHF 600M a year.  And if there are more than 100 ADs in EU and Asia are selling this. The market capacity is about 100,000 Watches, that is an impact to the pre-owned watch dealers. If the price is attractive, if not that could be a slow-moving market. well, the AD will keep watching and manipulating the service and price for their margin.

3. Vintage Rolex

I think those older models are not planned now, such as 16570, 1675, 1680, 16520, 1665 as they are having very unique dial and hands made up of Tritium material, if Rolex made them CPO watches. they may change with service dial and hands, and that is a disgrace to the watch's originality and would not be the consideration of collectors. This will be an interesting tropic and we will watch out.

4. My comment

Price is the King, if price in between the market price and MSRP, that could be a business model, if that price is skewed to the high side, I think no one would pay for the price for a pre-owned one unless they are 95% or newer.

5. 2023 will be an exciting year for Rolex

HK Snob

When is the best time buying new Rolex?

 It would be 2023 Jan as by that time we hope the Russian Ukraine war will come to an end, then

the price of Rolex should more or less stabilized, if that is bight for own use that should be OK.

I think by then the price of Rolex is then 10% lower than Nov 2022.

It should not be going down further. just my instinct and hunch on Rolex Price.

May be not 100% correct.

Let's see

Watch price trend March to November 2022

This is a graphic display of most of the common model of Rolex watches

HK Snob
 

Hong Kong Watch price trend March to November 2022

As we can see here price is keep dropping since March to November. 

The reasons are complicated as partly it the buyer's market now. Larger sound dealers bought expensive watches Q1 will not eager to sell at this moment coz of the huge loss, however many smaller dealer or individual seller are selling them for cash, that had created a huge drop of price average of 30%

Most 80% of buyers are so worry the price will not come to an end to drop, so they keep observative. 

These are watch price in HKD, for new watches at market price.

Note the heat of 2022 Royal Oak 16202 was $2m in March, now is about $740,000 which is about 2.7X higher than MRSP! but this is one of the iconic Royal Oak.

BNIB =brand new in box

NOS= new old stock

HK Snob

 

My Audemars Piguet 5402BA A series S/N XX is finally return to me hands

After a decision to take back this watch from AP house, I passed to one of the best watch expert in Hong Kong to do the oiling and complete service.

 It took him one week focusing on this watch.

Finally he passed me the watch in tip top condition, no polishing of course.

This watch had been leaving me for past 6 years and finally came back to me possession.

The time is adjusted to gain 8 second per day, that is good for Chinese like I

The first two pictures are the new condition of it. 

HK Snob

There are so many good watches that may be good for your collection

The passion for watch has to be built up with years of collection, understanding horology, meeting with some of the collectors and representatives from the individually watch company.

There is no need to follow what 80% of most people know about what their so-called best watch collection's definition.

If you follow this thought about how most people appreciate the watch becoming what is your favorite watches will not mean that you can't find what you love.

Watch is able to be categorized love of individualism.

There is always very beautiful, rare and iconic watch not necessary those 80% can recognize...

such as Reverso, pre-Vendom Panerai, Rolex Prince, Rogers Dubuis bold large watch of the early time such as MuchMore, Cartier Crash, Santos and Tank. Patek's Calatrava, Vacheron Constantin Moonphase, slim and smaller Overseas of 37mm...Royal Oak of the 70s', Piaget Lapis or Onyx dress watch, Rolex Day Date Coral, Submariner Onyx, Rolex Milgauss of the 60s. 

Keep the list on and get what you like and more importantly is still affordable!

HK Snob

Tiger eye, meteorite and Onyx

It's not the make, it's not the size, it's not the price, it is the fun in collection.

Tiger eye, meteorite and onyx dial, super rare.

HK Snob
 

My Audemars Piguet finally back Home... Thanks AP

 I got my AP 5402BA A series finally from Le Brassus on 3 Nov. Thank You AP House.

Thank you Bowie Cheung and Elssi Yu

HK Snob

Hublot charges on watch repair - 5 Stars service

 

This is another case that I went to Hublot at IFC last Wednesday 19 Oct for this repair.

She took me two minutes to fill in some of the apps. and they took my watch. I asked how much.

They told me is about HK$5,000 to $6,000!

Their staff's professionalism proven today when the official invoice came indicating that service charge is $4,800 and replacement of hour and minutes hands is $625, crystal change is $1,430.

Total charges is $6,855. 

Hands and crystal changes is subject to me... I will change them.

This is another 5 stars super good service. 

They are efficient, 10 minutes to check the watch, 3 days to send me official quotation and the price is sweet!!

Hublot is getting very popular and gaining more market share in Asia Hong Kong, Japan and Singapore...

Thank you Hublot and your friendly staff!

HK Snob

Roger Dubuis charges on watch repair - 5 Star service

 

This is my experience for the second time at Roger Dubuis enjoying their super service.

First of all, they are professional and very knowledgeable on their products. Professional salesperson Brian Yu could even recognize me by calling my name after my last visit 5 years ago! 

I salute you!

Secondly they told me that they need to have about 6 days to do pre-evaluation on the charge on my watch. I went there at 5 pm on 19 Oct and they called me today on the quotation. That is 3 days!

Third, they are about to replace 6 parts as shown on the quotation, complete service and case polishing of the watch and the total price is HK$82,30!

I am amazed with their first-class service, response and the cost, which is not in their policy as part of the earning!

of course they watch is a white gold super heavy watch and was not cheap at all when we bought it. But after these years, there is wear and tear is unavoidable as this is sport watch.

Repair charge is very reasonable and very comfortable for us.

Thank you Roger Dubuis for such a great service.

We will continue support this Roger Dubuis in future.

HK Snob

IWC Automatic watch with Pellaton winding system 1344319

1955 IWC Automatic Pellaton Automatic watch in a 35mm stainless steel case with a clear silver dial. This particular watch has the Pellaton winding system. This system paved the way for IWC.

Pellaton hit upon a surprising solution: instead of putting a ball bearing or cog at the centre of the rotor, he used a heart-shaped, eccentrically bearing-mounted disc. The latter converts the rotor’s revolutions into the to-and-fro movements of a rocking bar. The bar’s rocking movements are then transmitted to the winding wheel by two pawls: while one of them pulls the wheel (i.e. winds it), the other glides smoothly over the top of it until the roles are reversed. The mechanism patented in 1950 is unusually efficient. “The rotor’s smallest movement in either direction is used to wind the mainspring,” explains Gäumann.

Even if the principle is simple enough, an automatic winding system poses many different challenges for the design engineers. On the one hand, the mechanism must function perfectly for a wide range of wearers with different habits and lifestyles. On the other, the automatic sub-assembly is exposed to more wear and tear than most other parts in the movement. In the new 52850 calibre, for instance, the rotor has to complete 2600 revolutions to fully wind the two barrels in the Portugieser Annual Calendar. Although the rotor weighs just less than five grams, the forces exerted on the components during rapid movements may be as much as 5000 times that of gravity. Protecting the oscillating system against wear and tear, therefore, merits special attention.

Movement: Automatic C852

This particular beauty is having an even patina dial which reflects a vintage taste of an IWC Iconic watch in early stage of automatic watches

It comes with an original certificate (warranty)

A real collectible item if you are a fan of IWC watches

HK Snob

 

Comparison on watch service charges in Hong Kong

Richard Mille RM11-Ti ($1.7m) complete service $28,500, 3 months 2019. Pacific Place boutique

Roger Dubuis MuchMore Perpetual Calendar yellow gold ($300,000) Complete service $19,000 (original price was $30,000, but I negotiated with the HK general manager and he gave me a special discount. 3 months 2018.Pacific Place Boutique

Patek Philippe Nautilus White gold 3800/1a ($1.5M) complete service $10,250, 4 months 2020, Peninsular Patek service centre

Vacheron Constantin Tourbillon solid yellow gold watch ($350,000) complete service $32,000 4 months 2020, 1881 Boutique

IWC Pilot Perpetual Calendar 34mm white gold ($320,000) service on time adjustment under warranty, Free of charge, 2019, IFC boutique

Rolex Daytona 16528 yellow gold ($340,000) complete service including spring bar1 pair and complete service $9,970, 3 months, Jardines house 14/F

JLC Reverso rose gold ($200,000) complete service $9000, 3 months 2020. Prince Building Boutique Central.

Hublot King Power ($230,000) complete service, estimated $5,000 under quotation stage, this week. IFC boutique.

Roger Dubuis Diver White gold ($200,000) complete service estimated $15,000 under quotation confirmation, last week. IFC boutique.

Comment on service

I think all carry good quality service, especially Patek Philippe, they are so professional, the staff is so friendly

Rolex is the lowest in price, people commented Rolex is not so good but I think they are having a standard charging scheme and super reasonable

These are all my beloved watches and they all carry good service. I almost forget to give Seiko service  another thumbs up! As even as small amount as HKD$400 of watch bracelet I ordered, they called me and told me where to pay deposit and will advise me when the bracelet will be available. very detail and helpful service.

All currency is HK dollar.

Remarks 

(Bracketed highlighted one is the current estimated value of the watch)

Audemars Piguet watch service is likely a rip off!

AP charges me for complete service a Royal Oak 5402BA with HK$198,000!  (US$25,710.00)

That is more than the SRP of a brand new automatic Royal Oak.

I went there two times already first time meeting lady and ask me to sign some document but I did not as it was about 6pm. I made another appointment again to meet them again. That was back in June. So I left the watch however they quote me verbally the complete service of this watch is about $100,000. Official quote has to be sent from AP le Brassus.

I also presented my Royal Oak Offshore 25770ST to them to overhaul, it is a chronograph and the charge was $14,000; and it was retuned me in two months... I was satiafied with that service.

I have asked them last two weeks why it take so long for the official quote for my 5402, they told me summer vacation of Switzerland… last Thursday they call me that the complete service charge is $198,000. That is to me not a reasonable price. My request is the break down for the charges, of course there will be a meeting on 14 Oct at AP House on this.

My experience in service watches typically watch I the past 3 year are here:-

Patek Philippe Nautilus 3800/1A white gold $10,250, 3.5 months – two year warranty, Superb service!

Rolex Daytona 16528 overhaul HK$9,000 (two months) – Good service.

IWC Pilot White gold perpetual calendar 34mm as I need to readjust the time from gain of 12 sec. a day then they retuned me with 2 sec. gain a day in two week! It was free as the watch is under warranty. This is an excellent service.

Richard Mille RM-11 Ti not running well, it time to overhaul after 2011. The charge was $28,500  2 months to return me…- Superb service, and I got one year extra warranty on that watch and a beautiful RM watch box.

Well, back to them 5402 well, this is an old watch believed it is in the year 1972. But it is a simple two hand automatic watch with JLC 2121 movement…

I think any one in HK can do the same job… but I just afford there in in case some parts is needed would be nice to be done in Audmemars Piguet.

This told me I was wrong… as according to AP House, there are only two watch smiths such are qualified to do this watch overhaul in Swiss… if that is true I just wonder wo can repair the 1985 ultra thin AP Perpetual calendar, which I had before.. probably the charge will be aso very high!

What I guess they don’t want to service older watch… or they would like to charge at certain percentage of the current value of your watch… this looks more appropriate as my 5402 which may worth at $2M. So say 10% o it would be about $198,000, Oh I just discovered the secret AP formula… as I had talked to the CEO of AP at Linked In page…he told me to send my detail info to social.media@audemarspiguet.com. That had been more than 10 days with no reply at all, even after my resent messages! Completely sucks! 

Conclusion

1.       They have only two qualified smith to handle vintage automatic Royal Oak watch in their factory

2.       How to service more complicated watch such as 1985 Perpetual calendar or even Tourbillion? Or Subcontract this service to other watch makers in Switzerland? That is why thy have to charge much higher?

3.       The charge scheme is based on 10% of the current value of the watch for complete service ?

4.       Comparing with excellent repair services at Patek, Rolex, IWC , Richard Mille Audemars Piguet is really need to learn from them in service support.

5.       The one who bought this 5402BA in 1972 saved Audemars Piguet from bankruptcy is now being punished for sending them the watch to repair… is that a Karma? IWho saved the Audemars Piguet in 1972-1974?

6.       Should I consider buying more Audemar Piguet watches in near future? No, I have the reply as I think there are better choice for me… Patek, Vacheron Constantin , Richard Mille, IWC, Panerai Rolex, Tudor or Grand Seiko! 

Moral of the story, AP is not as what I used to think it is as before.

I always believe a good after sales service is key to win a market segment.

HK Snob

Top Picture is now being a hostage for repair at le brassus 

Second picture top one is the Nautilus 3800/1a white gold after complete service at Patek Philippe Switzerland with just HK$10,250 still under two years warranty. I am super happy with Patek Service!

Common buying practice of watch in Hong Kong.

I am not trying to blame buyer, there are 80% good buyers, though there is some minority which are not too good. I know the complexity of the buying people‘s mind set sometimes they are confused, they are struggling why have to buy the watch in the open market via these trading platform such as eBay or Carousell, facebook, or eBay.

Especially in Hong Kong, those younger at age group between 24-38 years old many of them are quite lost in mind, as gathering from friends and watch sellers I know these are the quite common...

1.   Some of them are not serious buyer, some of them click your product as he wants to try luck to buy lucky go cheaper goods. They are not serious.

2.   Many of them would like to understand more on the product and he makes use of it to ask you questions only.

3.   Many of them want to buy but in over cautious way that he ask too many questions.

Don’t fall into the psychological trap that asking more meaning they are more interested in buy, they just don’t know. 80% of them don’t buy.

4.   Sometimes, we need to test them by providing a slower response and see if they stop interested in your products, and ask them experience on your products, as they might be empty on the knowledge on your product, they you can provide them more technical information of our products, and If they are serious then they will come back to you.

5.  These are common no buy signals:-

Let me think about it

Let me consider it

Can you further reduce the price?

6.   These are professional way to refuse your products

Oh I forget to ask, do you have the original invoice at Rolex (it has been stated no invoice)

I just noticed that there is a stain on the dial, Let me rethink about, (Actually there is no rusts at all)

Oh, my girl friend had just informed me she is pregnant and I need to save money for that!

7.   Scammer (most likely)

a.    Do you accept cheque?

b.    Can you meet me at 0300 morning ta Sham Shui Po Ap Liu street!? I pay cash for your two Daytonas

c.    She says she is busy at meeting suddenly and she sends his younger brother to trade with you. Please call his number to arrange. (beware)

8.   Why so cheap?

There is only one in 100 that asks why your products is so cheap, he might not buy also and

This is a most hilarious reply from one of my partners to this weird buyer.

“Because of COVOID-19, all my family member died and I need money to arrange their funerals! (This is a real one!)

 Have a nice day

 HK Snob

King of Rolex

 

Whatever Rolex models are you interested in, Daytona is of no question the top if the list, the auction record is held by Daytona, no matter Paul Newman, Platinum Daytona, Rainbow, we are likely talking about the Daytona family. 
This is 16528 with Zenith movement modified lower beat to suit the Rolex requirement. a durable work horse, Don't miss it if you see one.

Top of the line is black floating line in with inverted 6 in black, porcelain white, black with diamond,

Lapis Azuli dial. Onyx dial ( I have not seen one yet) Creamy dial P series 116520... W series 16520 Tropical dial.

Reference price (actual price depends on if there is paper and condition of it)

116520 white $200K

116520 Black $180K

116520 P Creamy dial $1m

16520 Black A $220K White $240K

16529 Black Black Patrizi $300K

16528 Black no diamond $280K

16528 Black with diamond dial $320K

Current production model 116500 White $270,000 Black $235000 

HK Snob

Remarks, attached with a Goro's bracelet